psuhoffman

Trend...it was totally squashed to a coastal SC storm 24 hours ago. Just like the old gfs it’s more amplified every run. This is typical gfs error.

You found time to post the suck ass gefs and used suckiest ass run of all the recent suck ones too.

@Weather Will made us suffer through 800 probability maps like that and doesn’t post this one??????

It’s over

There are background base state truths we need to remember. It’s a Nina. Almost all those HECS storms were in Ninos. And we’re in the middle of an epic run of torch. So given those factors do I expect some 2010 type snow blitz no. But this longwave pattern is about as good as we can get to just snow given and despite those hostile realities we must contend with.

This has to lol. If we waste this next 2 weeks I’m probably taking a break from long range for a while. What’s the point of tracking a pattern if we can get one that looks like someone gave me the magic atmosphere crayon and let me draw it up myself and it still does us no good? That’s when it’s time to step away for a while. ETA: this feels like we’re playing cards and just realized the opponent already pulled all the face cards out of the deck.

Three waves each with successively more upside. I have been keying on the 28-30th as the time period that made most sense as everything retrogrades and the ridge should pull west enough to get east coast amplification and cold (whatever there is) to time to. But the eps are split between the wave around the 28/29 and one around the 30/31. The 30/31 might have the best chance to turn the corner amplify up the coast. The h5 look through that 5 day period is classic. @Ji We cannot waste this. This isn’t a pattern we’re going to get that often. I honestly dunno what it will take if this doesn’t work!

@Ji seats are gonna fill up fast that captures two waves technically because the eps members can’t decide between the 28/29 or the 30/31 wrt which wave will be the one to amplify.

We got plenty of airheads though

You getting on my bus?

6z gefs finally jumped on board for the 28-30th window.

1”% 3”% 6”%

EPS still likes the 28th/29th ETA: so it’s debatable whether this is capturing 2 different events over these 4 days or if it’s one event with timing differences. There aren’t any members with two hits. But members that eject a wave around the 28 that’s it. Other members wash that out and develop the next wave instead a day later. But bottom line is eps really like something between the 28-31

@Ji the 28th threat definitely not dead on the geps. Quite a few members with a storm there. I count 12/20.

I am cautiously optimistic. I do think the typical Nina central pac ridge will offer some resistance and we will ridge at times. But if the NAO stays negative which guidance suggests and the pac jet remains more relaxed with a ridge in the western N pac we should get opportunities. The NAO will suppress the SE ridge at times and so long as the pac ridge extends poleward it will prevent the pac from torching us again.

Yea I saw an argument over whether the wind reverses again and was like who cares. We had two reversals and the NAM state is already strongly negative. If it’s just another weakening of the zonal winds is just fine we don’t need some big hit to the PV. It’s already on the mat we just need it to stay down!

But if the NAO you might -QBO

I think they are arguing about my point wrt the N pac being less hostile to our source regions looking ahead then in Dec/Jan. That ridge west of AK means even with a trough near the epo domain the main air source was from Asia not the central Pacific .

The GEFS does agree with the op wrt the stronger NS wave then suppressed southern wave solution for the 25/26. But it actually trended north with the threat around the 28. So much so that more misses are to the north then south with that wave. Which makes sense it would hurt more to miss one storm to the south and one to the north back to back. Lol.

There are good reasons to doubt the gfs/gefs since its handling one feature differently then all other guidance. But...there is also this. Remember the first strong NAO block 2 weeks ago from 200+ hours out we were worried about a string of cutters. All 3 of those waves ended up weak pathetic squashed waves that didn’t get close to us. And they all shifted south at about 150-200 hours. Then...this is what the wave this week looked like when it was 8 days out. and then at day 6/7 it shifted to this... so one thing arguing for this gfs solution is the undeniable seasonal trend. Just laying all the cards on the table. Still think it’s wrong. But I’ve always been more worried about suppressed then a cutter so seeing it suddenly squash everything at the same magic threshold that’s happened to every wave since the NAO tanked 3 weeks ago wasn’t a warm fuzzy feeling either.

Cold doesn’t cause suppression. I was in New England and it was snowing near 0 once. The flow suppresses. Often the two are related and correlated because a suppression means the flow is from the north typically and that in winter usually means cold. But if it’s warm all the way to the Arctic circle like now...it doesn’t matter what direction our air is coming from. But a north flow will still press a storm south. I’m simplifying this a little and leaving out things like shear and compression but that’s the general idea.

Fixed

It’s the only guidance still keying on the front running NS wave so much. That messes up the wave for the 26th. Then (not that by then it matters if it’s wrong with waves 1-2) it’s faster then all other guidance with the 3rd wave so it’s too close to wave 2 and washes out. I’d toss but it does fit the pattern of fail recently so I won’t say it’s not possible.

That was the mess the gfs was showing the other day when it was dumping everything west and punching a ridge to the North Pole (not exaggerating lol) ahead of it.