psuhoffman

And remember...the op Gfs did EVERYTHING wrong days 1-10 then still managed to get a flush hit because of that block. Even if other factors aren’t great that block given enough chances might come through. But yea I’d like the Pac to cooperate more and not make this so god darn difficult.

They come out 1-3am. For now enjoy the Jan 27 HECS on the GFS

No one should be giving up on anything past day 6 with that kind of blocking.

GFS op is doing what the 18z op did...not a poleward enough EPO ridge...so it dumps all the trough into the west and pumps an eastern ridge... the block can only so do much about that.

It's not REALLY a cutter...it tracks right over us and transfers...miller b hybrid that doesn't jump in time. And I would wait another couple days before being sure that solution is likely...were still at the range where things could change significantly and given that blocking...it wouldn't shock me if the changes is south. That said...we continue to not see the cold press the way we really need...and that is something that can't be ignored since its been a common theme for a LONG time.

isnt that the storm the euro had as a deep south snowstorm lol

It’s ok to point it out. The pac jet has interfered with numerous attempts at poleward heat flux. Even without the epo that block would put is in the game but it would be a much easier road with a more poleward ridge.

Have you noticed you’ve said this about 300 times

If we’re lucky

The 18zgefs does not agree wrt EPO. Even stronger poleward ridge then 12z. Was probably just an op at range on a tangent.

Ha and the block still forces a low under us even after it starts in the upper Midwest...but without the epo we don’t get the expansive cold press so again it’s a narrow as bleep snow area.

18z Gfs op lost the epo ridge totally. Instead it’s a flat central pac ridge and we see the results. The blocking is crazy but it can’t offset that pac. Hopefully it’s just a bad op run.

Yes.....

You expect as deep a pressure along the gulf coast or southeast as a vortex in the North Atlantic?

Teenagers close enough I don’t mind engaging with him. In case you haven’t noticed ignoring him doesn’t work. He posted like 15 times while I was teaching a class today and no one said squat to him. After I engaged with him the nonsense posts calmed down...for a while at least until he gets triggered by the next bad run.

Does that mean I can claim this one too lol

2005 you are thinking of but...we did get 2 snowstorms from that pattern in late February and early March. Both were 3-6” type deals. It was mostly dry after and I would agree it underperformed potential but it wasn’t a shutout and it was March which always is more challenging. We’re talking prime climo here! ETA; that block was more east based also

If we waste this we really do suck. This is a once a decade type blocking event.

This is the Eps 72 hour mean day 12-15. Honestly you won’t see a stronger signal at that range. Both GEFS and EPS are sniffing something there. It’s been on the GFS op also

Fwiw eps thinks rain is the bigger threat day 8-9 not suppressed. Some hits though. Some south misses. It’s not a bad look. But the signal day 10-15 is really strong for that range. If this look holds I do expect to see something worthy to show as that period comes unto range.

This is an excellent look. Mean H pressure to our NW with low pressure running the gulf states and up the coast...

EPS has a big signal for that range around Jan 25-26. So does the gefs. West to east type wave as blocking relaxes some. Way too far out but it’s there. Remarkably similar on both ensembles

If his default is 3” I can understand his frustration.

We’ve had a lot of runs less then 3. Since they upgraded the GEFS it’s snow maps have been less stupid skewed high by outliers. But also that’s a 10 day mean not 16. So you’re exaggerating and comparing a 10 day to a typical 16 day map. BTW the euro wasn’t that far from a better solution. we need 1 and 2 to phase. Instead they don’t and flatten each other out. We need 3 to be a couple hundred miles east...or not there at all..timing up a wave rotating down a trapped 50/50 at day 8 is hard. It’s not out of the question. I don’t care about details past about 150 because they change run to run a lot. 150 in I want to see it closer because the adjustments seem to be more incremental once inside about that range.