psuhoffman

two things can be true...Your point is totally correct. But his general pattern comparison is true also...January 2010 didn't do much for many despite good blocking throughout. And since the little bit of snow we got before the Jan 30 storm was VERY marginal...we could make the argument this January is a 2021 adjusted version of 2010. It's not a perfect comp but I think both of you are making true statements.

True but.... one of those events was a clipper, and the other 2 were highly marginal temp events. Clippers are increasingly rare lately. The enhanced pac jet likely has a part in that. Clippers were often pretty discreet waves to begin with...barely amplified enough to produce. The raging pac jet is making it difficult for even pretty major NS features to amplify and phase...let along those discreet waves. I think there is some linkage there. Besides a clipper is a pretty random fluke thing anyways. And we can debate how much of this is a residual effect after the 2016 super nino (although you would think that would have worn off by now especially after 2 cold enso years following it) or how much might be a more permanent issue (no I don't want to start a climate civil war here) but the fact is the base state of north america has been a TORCH since 2016 and marginal events from 10 years ago probably would just be cold rain now. We have all observed the dearth of "minor snow events" lately and there is a really simply logical reason...most of those were marginal to begin with...so what happens if you add a few degrees to those "marginal 10/20 years ago" events? I'll tell you..exactly what we saw...perfect track cold rain. So that storm around New Years where you got some freezing rain...and the one right after where we had a perfect track system and got cold rain...those were the minor marginal events 10/20 years ago. But that doesn't mean we cant snow. But something that BARELY worked 10 years ago likely isn't going to now. So there could be some pattern progression similarities...but you have to adjust for today's base state (temporary or permanent not having that discussion).

I see mixed signals for Feb. Tropical convection (if you extrapolate) isn’t ideal but it isn’t in the worst spot either and it’s been a muted driver so far. I also find it odd that some who dismiss a good look on guidance say 10-15 totally accept a bad look day 25 lol. Some people keep misidentifying normal reversion towards mean at long leads as a sign the -AO/NAO is breaking down. That’s been going on since December. Even now after hints it was breaking long range earlier this week there are signs on the eps and geps that blocking reloads AGAIN into Feb after this retrograding block episode. GEFS is neutral. It lingers the -AO/NAO. I kind of favor a continued high latitude blocking regime. There was another PV split yesterday! The effects of the original SSW event are just coupling with the tpv now. And there are hints at further strat weakening next week. This has the feel of a full season -AO year. That said other factors could continue to mute its effectiveness at delivering cold/snow. But if a decent but flawed pattern is ever going to work February is the time. The picture is murky Imo. Definitive calls for February seem premature.

If a Rex block retrograding from Greenland to Baffin along with a -epo doesn’t work then frankly I’m out of ideas how to countermand the pac jet.

What makes you so sure tropical convection centers near the MC in Feb? Most evidence I see has the most dominant signal in the western pacific. Not as far east as ideal (probably more phase 6/7) but not as hostile as the MC. That and the MJO has been a non factor so far.

There is kinda a catch 22 with that first wave. There isn’t much cold in front. So if it’s not suppressed and it pumps any ridge and rides the boundary it goes north of us. But if it is suppressed it gets squashed. Not saying it can’t be a hit but it’s a very delicate balance because there isn’t enough cold in place ahead of the wave. This isn’t an amplifying coastal type setup. For a west to east boundary wave to work it’s much easier with good cold in front. Let’s see what the eps has to say about the 10-15 period. 12z eps liked it and gefs really hit that time 18z and again 0z. Gefs 5 day mean day 10-15

well...those that wanted cold check out the Para. Not a drop or flake of any precip after tomorrow...dry as a bone for 15 days...but damn cold lol. WAY too much of a good thing. Huge block but develops a TPV vortex just to our northeast under the block and it sits there forever just squashing everything. Nothing even comes close...not even NC...its too suppressed for anything to get east of the MS. Now that would be an epic way to fail after we couldn't buy any cold air the first 6 weeks of winter...to waste a block because its too cold.

I get the frustration...but we have had some hits mixed in lately...the euro snowed on us like 4 straight runs actually. The GFS and para had a few runs with a hit day 10-15 and the ICON just had some snow. We just have not had any consistency with one of these waves yet...guidance is all over shotgun style on how they play out. I still think the progression favors a further south track after the wave on the 22nd, if there even is a wave on the 22nd. It's possible the southern wave shears out and the northern wave stays to our north...and its not much of anything. That is one option because there is so much ridging in front...but then with a sudden wall in the way from the blocking. If you really want to look for something "exciting" I have noticed the trough in the west continues to retrograde, in response to the pac ridge retrogression...and by around day 15 its SOOOOO close to pulling back enough to really dump a huge trough into the east under the block. And this time because there is a ridge in the WPO not a long trough across the whole north pacific...there wouldn't be a raging pac jet blasting into north america. Imagine...a poleward ridge west of alaska to get cold into N America...then a trough off the west coast to get a PNA ridge...then huge trough under the block in the east...going into February. Might as well dream big right? This crap has to end sometime...why not end with a bang.

Give it a few days. It will be a deep south storm Every wave we are tracking is still 7+ days away... a range where there will be significant changes on every op run. But you are tracking them like every little detail on the run is live or die as if its 24 hours away. That very first wave around the 22nd is maybe a day or so away from getting to a range where we might start to get some clarity. But I was never that optimistic on that one anyways. But you would do better to let the full run's come in and then just get a sense for overall trends based on the ensembles rather then getting twisted around by the flip flops of each op run.

Given where the block is by then...I would worry more about suppressed then a cutter like the GFS shows.

The indexes don’t mean much in March with short wavelengths ETA: they do if you want a sustained pattern like March 1960 or 2018 but a fluke storm can happen in almost any pattern the way waves can dig and cut off that time of year.

I like their apple pie

If we weren’t in a pandemic and I didn’t have a family I would seriously be on my way to NC right now to get a chicken cheddar biscuit.

We’re in the worst snow drought IN HISTORY. This is like if you’re starving and someone offers you a bucket of chicken and they’re like “I’m not eating that unless I get a biscuit”.

Btw weeks ago we laughed about the weeklies showing a great pattern but no snow. Well.....just saying if we’re going to blast the long range guidance when it’s wrong we need to acknowledge when it nails something

The weekly ensemble members are not run at high resolution. They won’t estimate things like meso banding and that’s 10-1 which if you and I get a flush hit you know ratios would be higher. The gradient to the NW of 95 is NEVER as sharp as reality would be on those because a lot of what causes our enhanced totals are meso features (upslope and higher ratios and banding) a low res ensemble member won’t see. Also a 50 member ensemble will always skew towards the mean by outlier members. It works both ways. I would say the same if the pattern looked awful and it showed a 3-4” mean. Thats actually a shutout look. Just a few outliers skewing towards the mean. What I’m saying is it’s the axis and anomaly that matters more then the total. Snow maps aren’t even close to the best way to analyze the pattern but you can take hints from them if you know how to interpret them.

@CAPE this ones for you...euro weekly control. I get fringed up here! Fwiw (not much) the euro weeklies had their best run wrt snow mean all winter. Clearly above climo for the period, especially along 95. It’s not shocking...the general H5 looks workable right through Feb. -NAO suppressed SE ridge pattern in feb could work. control Mean

Para did come really close to a monster storm around the 25 but bombs just off the coast.

Wait till you see the para gfs. Cutter. Suppressed suppressed suppressed cutter

It’s weird the Rex block is actually gone it’s just a -NAO ridge but it goes berserk with a vortex in the 50/50. It’s actually the flow under a block that creates the effect so that solution is even more suppressive

When he said the west coast, you thought he meant of THIS planet??

@CAPE of course the -AO will end sometime. Maybe it does finally flip in February but by then we had a -AO from late November straight for 11-12 weeks. The failure of the winter wouldn’t be that the AO was positive the last couple weeks imo. Lol

Yes but in November it said that was coming by mid December. Then in mid December it was January. Then late January. Now by mid February? Ok...

I’m sorry this is the AP course. The remedial class is down the hall.

They have tried to kill the -AO/NAO state all cold season just as guidance tried to weaken the +AO in previous winters. Part of that is reversion to mean at range. Part is guidance misidentifying a key driver. 2 years ago it was a nino that never coupled. This year is a Nina that’s being countermanded by other influences. ETA: point is I doubt it just flips. If we fail this winter we can’t blame the high latitudes. That might make a fail even more painful