psuhoffman

I’m not really tracking cold. I care about snow. Seeing the Arctic shot didn’t excite me. Now seeing too much eastern ridge is a problem. But if that is slightly overdone it’s fine for getting waves. I don’t want the PV over us.

The cold is still there it’s just dumping west initially not east.

Sunday isn’t dead imo. That’s the kind of wave that can trend better the final 72 hours. But it’s tricky and I’m not wasting time on every little trend at range.

It’s still lurking but gfs splits the PV and the dominant peace stays out west which pumps a ridge in the east. Previously guidance was elongating but sliding the dominant PV lobe east. The 6z eps went to that idea also.

The NAO retrogrades a little too far west for my liking also

6z Eps went to that

I am more worried about the trend in the system next week then the weekend. The weekend thing was always a tougher get. But there has been a trend across guidance towards pulling the trough more west next week which could complicate the setup for the waves after the weekend. Still a lot of time though for that to adjust either way.

Might get one more burst late tonight as that last band rotates through from the NW.

It was mostly west to east with a slight latitude gain on the coast that was just enough for our area. Still a very sharp west to east cutoff just along the Mason Dixon line. I was down in VA with my brother for that event but up here got 4" while 10 miles south got 6" and only 15 miles north got nothing. You can see the gradient in this image. Also....had a huge expanse of snowfall north to south.

What is there to say. The pattern looks GREAT. Now we just have to wait for discreet threats to get into range and see how the details work out. BTW two of the periods showing up in the CPC analogs are right before all hell broke lose in 1958 and 1960 so the potential is there for a memorable run. Still need the specifics to go our way.

OK they are using day 5-10 of an OP model to verify trends...time to stop it with posting their garbage maybe???

I am not putting the kibosh on the Sunday storm, it’s tricky but could happen, but the period after that is a more classic way we score. There will be a pretty extended window after the block retrogrades again and the tpv shifts through the 50/50 to get something to amplify the trough. I would say like 4-5 days. That’s enough time for multiple SWs to have a shot at it. Just need one to break off the tail of the trough and dig into the east to link up with the STJ.

Omg I had a delta 88 Oldsmobile in college and it died on the side of the road near Johnstown when we took a road trip to visit the historic flood markers from PSU.

Lol this isn’t the same setup. All about where the front sets up and how the streams interact. The flow to our northeast isn’t a factor as much. Suppression did have a hand in this last storm just not the way people think of it. The system to our west started to deamplify as it hit the compressed flow to the northeast. That flow then relaxed but it took a tiny bit too long to amplify again. We got stuck in the dead zone. I think had the trough amplified straight to the coast the secondary would have captured off the VA capes v NJ. That’s all the difference to us.

something else here is unreal bad

The key to the day 8-10 threat is what the tail of the TPV does. We need the tail of the trough to break off a SW and dig into the east...which will in turn create some separation between the 50/50 and pump some ridging along the east coast. If that trailing SW moves more east and misses the connection with the STJ everything will likely be suppressed. If something digs into the MS/TN valley we likely get a storm up the east coast.

It’s still cold enough to suppress two storms south of us day 5 and 9 lol. I’ll pass on arctic cold if it means we don’t get any snow.

Para and ukmet have some snow with the wave next weekend. Para has a big storm day 10.

My uncle lives in Shenandoah Junction. Right behind the High and Middle Schools.

If this is what the rest of winter looks like Gefs extended euro weeklies

I’ve come to realize I like the day after a big storm more. I like the scenery of snow on the ground but I’m not a huge fan of it hitting me in the face. Don’t get me wrong it’s awesome when it’s puking snow and piling up. But my favorite part is taking a walk when it’s nice out and there is snow otg.

Been busy. A lot going on at work. I did get out with the kids for a couple hours.

The NAO is likely to reload again after that imo. The TPV is still a weak POS so the next wave break will just start the whole cycle again.

It’s provably becoming true even more so with warmer ocean SSTs. We need those to cool to stop flooding the mid latitudes with warmth. But it certainly happened in the past also. 1958 and 1960 has blocking all winter but it wasn’t until February/March that we cashed in.

Told ya that southeast ridge would be suppressed if the -epo/NAO combo was real. It’s REALLY hard for us to be warm with that combo in February