psuhoffman

I don’t want to start a war with anyone without knowing the whole story, especially over something this petty...but here is my take... Using 12z EPS but GEFS isn’t much different Day 1 looks like an epo ridge with effective flow into our source regions to me... Day 5 no complaints there... day 8!!!! still there...keep in mind signals get muted that far out in range. After that the pacific ridge retrogrades and that Pac NW trough retrogrades with it into the EPO domain flipping it around day 9/10. A few days ago when it was still way out at like day 14-16 guidance hinted the epo ridge might linger a few days longer but saying because it lasted 7-8 days instead of 10-11 based on a day 15 prog seems overly petty to me. It also seems inconsequential to the threat window days 8-15 that I’m looking at. Because look what that sets up day 12 yes the epo flips...but AFTER a solid week of flow straight out of the Arctic into our source regions. I’m sorry but that’s not good enough? But also that’s not a bad look there. That isn’t a vortex of doom in the N pac just a typical trough. And we have a block still in eastern Canada and a 50/50 low trapped to our northeast so our flow will be out of the north. That area had a solid week of cross polar flow to seed cold. And look where that’s being fed with there. Yes the flow traverses the extreme north Pac after coming off Siberia and through the Bering Sea. Not exactly tropical in origin. And the true mid latitude maritime pac air is directed into the southwest and is cut off by the northwest flow across the US. That’s a good look to get something to amplify into the east and it should be plenty cold enough given the antecedent setup. Now ideally I’d like that ridge to pull back a little more. It’s tight. With a block like that though sometimes something could dig in pretty sharp. But my fear there would be something miller bs us because it amplifies too far northeast. But that has nothing to do with the EPO. And before we worry about that it’s 12 days away..I promise the ridge axis will shift slightly. If it adjusts west just a bit we’re golden. So let’s see. But back to the EPO issue yes the northern stream would pick up some maritime influence from its brief traverse over the gulf of AK but if that is enough to totally wreck our source region immediately after seeding it with arctic air for 7 straight days...and I am not exxagersting here...we should close up shop and pack it in. Seriously what do we need a 30 day straight off Siberia flow? Or a solar storm that infuses stratospheric air straight to the ground like day after tomorrow??? What are we looking for here??? Now if we’re looking way way out...if the NAO flips positive and that trough stays near AK then yea we will be in trouble. But now we’re looking way out and adding some ifs and buts. Maybe they are doing that. I don’t know. But imo if the next 2 weeks fail it’s not because the epo broke down in 7 days instead of 10.

This hand is being over played imo. The epo ridge is going up for about 6 days (instead of 10) but the extended days were at like day 13-16. That’s not reliable range. The models did get the epo ridge going up correct just had it linger too long. But frankly an extended epo ridge is unlikely in a Nina with a strong Pac jet. The play was always to get some cold into the pattern then hope we do better with a colder base state to start with a blocking pattern. Anyone expecting weeks of a epo NAO ridge bridge was crazy. If we get a week of epo ridge to inject true cold into N America then an eastern trough after and it’s still not cold enough I don’t want to hear anymore crap about the pattern. How many things do we expect to go right AND to stay lined up for THAT long. It doesn’t work that way. If we need 15 things to all be perfect AND to stay that way for weeks and weeks...well don’t hold your breath.

And I’m not sure what this is in reference too but I’ve seen his tweets shared on my Twitter feed comparing the pattern to 2010 several times and I think I remember a comment where he said he would be shocked if DC to Boston wasnt above normal snow by Mid Feb do not sure how not bullish that is lol.

Ok back on topic...no one noticed the rather significant improvement on the 18z Gefs???

I stopped watching his videos regularly years ago but yesterday I threw one on out of curiosity and he outlined the same progression I laid out a few days ago. It honestly made me feel less confident in my prediction.

Sounds like a normal day to me

+1

The VAST majority of Eagles fans wanted the GM gone. Some wanted both GM and coach gone. Almost no one wanted the coach gone and GM back. Way more agree with me that the GM is the main problem. Also...when it comes to coaching decisions Eagles fans imo aren’t the best to base your decisions on. They would fire every coach after every loss. Eagles fans are as logical wrt coaching expectations as Ji with snow.

All of them. It was impressive!!!

I have no idea. I’m just saying objective studies of it’s accuracy shows it has no validity. Their seasonal forecasts have a slightly better track record and show some skill above just random chance. But their day to day forecasts do not.

Agree but not my decision

Of course it’s non zero. If I made a random prediction for every day of the year I would hit several times by random chance also.

That was hard to watch and I hated every bit of that but I honestly don’t think it had anything to do with the decision. If it did they would have fired him immediately. Plus the GM knew about that plan going in so....they weren’t hiding it. They said during the week they intended to rest several starters and get the 3rd string QB some playing time. They said they were treating it like a preseason game. So then after suddenly it’s a problem? If it was that’s as much the GMs fault. In the end the coach and GM had a toxic relationship and the owner went with the wrong guy imo. The fact they are very close didn’t help.

Scientific analysis of their day to day forecasts show they have no more accuracy than random chance.

It’s never as simple as they make it seem on sports talk. Let me preface that I love our owner overall. He’s done way more good then bad over the years. And before I make him seem like the worst GM ever Howie Roseman did build the super bowl team. So he deserves props for that. But right now the owner is way to close to the GM. Andy had one truly bad season in 14 years and they fired him. Doug had one bad season in 5. Both seem rather impatient decisions Imo. And I consider the current issues way more personnel then coaching. They got old and injured and on top of that their last few drafts were busts and the QB lost his mind. And it’s all mental with Wentz. I dunno if it’s the head injury from last year but he totally lost his timing and feel this year. This play illustrates it best but this wasn’t an isolated thing. I dunno how the coach can fix that. He did that several times every game like his brain was in slow motion. Lastly given covid I would have just given this year a mulligan. But the GM was meddling in things that should be coaching decisions like assistant staffing decisions and playing time decisions and that situation finally boiled over. But imo Doug was a good coach. I liked his aggressiveness and play calling. I liked how hard the players played for him. Their failures seemed to be a lack of talent when it mattered not coaching.

I stubbed my toe. Is that relevant?

12z cmc kinda did that but the initial wave didn’t cut.

How the wooly worms look?

Of course it’s both. So happy for Andy. But my current GM has now fired two of the best coaches I’ve ever seen. And he hired Chip Kelly and tried to hire Adam Gase. I’m not confident in our future...

Both had a string of significant snows after those dates

The para is an upgrade but still based on the same physics. This seems to be a pretty substantive difference with how they handle the longwave pattern. Not shocking the para agrees with the older gfs.

Me either. I actually figured that by just adding what the qpf increased by on the last frame on TT

Number 1 day 8 pattern analog is Jan 28 1979. Number 2 is Jan 18 1966. Both immediately proceeded multiple snowstorms. This is not a pattern problem.

@CAPE fwiw (nothing) DC already has 2” by that last JMA panel according to the total QPF and obviously would still be snowing for a while after given that temp profile.

It could go either way. It’s all dependent on exactly how much mid latitude ridging there is ahead of the western trough and if it can punch a hole in the westerly flow under the block. And the differences are way too subtle to say imo. Of course recent history says go with the solution that screws us the most.