psuhoffman

It’s the only guidance still keying on the front running NS wave so much. That messes up the wave for the 26th. Then (not that by then it matters if it’s wrong with waves 1-2) it’s faster then all other guidance with the 3rd wave so it’s too close to wave 2 and washes out. I’d toss but it does fit the pattern of fail recently so I won’t say it’s not possible.

It’s still taking too much energy with the front runner wave which messes up everything behind it. Doubt it’s right. But who knows we are on an epic run of fail.

That’s just the NS front runner. Gfs looks about to suppress everything of importance. Lol. I’m way more worried about everything getting suppressed then I am missing to the north next week. The only wave that will go north Imo is the weak front running NS wave. The 2 waves after that 26th and 28/29 will either be a hit or suppressed imo.

That was during my last semester at PSU. Actually my second stint, I took some time off after I was in a bad ski accident in 2000 and then changed majors. But I was home most weekends working shifts at TGI Fridays in Herndon to make cash. I remember driving through the snow from the front runner wave on the way down. Then went to a movie with an old friend that night and it was freezing cold just before the second wave. The next day drive back to PSU in the snow took like 8 hours.

That was the mess the gfs was showing the other day when it was dumping everything west and punching a ridge to the North Pole (not exaggerating lol) ahead of it.

I wasn’t poking at you. But I’ve said for a while I think the mjo is symbiotic. It’s part of the big picture. And often if it’s a strong signal it does align with the pattern. But sometimes when other things are driving the bus a weak mjo signal won’t offset. It’s failed to save us in bad patterns and it’s failed to kill us in good ones. But there are like 800 correlations to each little variable and what this phase does in that solar or this qbo and when there is a full moon with a vampire attack. I dunno how you use all that crap.

The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. Chuck can explain.

Fwiw geps likes the idea of a groundhogs day storm also

I was in 12” last night...call it all off

@frd there are 3 distinct threats on the EPS. First is discussed in the day 3-7 thread. This frame captures the day 9-11 threat. I’ve covered this. It’s the one I’ve thought had the most potential to be a big storm. I’m not kicking the otters out of bed though. EPS tees up another wave for groundhogs day. Questionable on thermals by then but it’s not a bad signal. It certainly favors the northern parts more but there are enough members with a far enough south track to watch. The setup is there..can see the energy being forced under the block. Ridge is suppressed. Would depend on how much and where the cold boundary is setup probably.

Some members have a slower second wave. This frame captures the whole event across all members without any contamination with the 28/29 threat yet.

It’s a little better by 240. The upper low is still near Omaha there. But this isn’t a setup that needs a ton of deep moisture feed. If we get an amplifying closed low to pass over us just need enough. Not all setups are the same.

I thought that’s where I was. Had both open and messed up. Ugh. Sorry.

Ugh @stormtracker I posted this in the wrong thread. Moving it here. I think it was about to go boom but it depends on what was about to happen with the feature near Montreal that was diving in. If it was about to phase (I think???) it was gonna be huge. If it was going to act to shear the amplifying h5 low coming right for us...then it might have muted the result. Curious what @WxUSAF thinks.

I think it was going to be huge. But it depends on this feature over Montreal that’s diving in. If that was about to phase with the amplifying upper level low coming right for us it was going to be a monster outcome. If however that was going to act to shear it shunt the h5 low southeast it might be a less significant event on that run. And I think it was the former but I needed to see one more panel to be sure. @WxUSAF curious what do you think?

Guys...wait until the upper level energy catches up to see what happens. ETA: the initial wave runs out ahead of its upper support and washes out but the upper level low looks just fine. Need to see what happens as that approaches the trough on the east coast before we decide. A surface storm could blow up quick along the coast somewhere as the upper levels catch up.

But for how much? Might need to check on the bus...

Another period that showed up in the cpc pattern analogs recently

True but that was a northerly outlier among the eps.

It happens in blocking. The extreme blocking part is what’s rare...a surface low that’s not amplifying getting forced south of east like that isn’t unusual in this setup. The storm around the 28/29 has more chance to amplify and gain latitude (some) on the coast.

If you expand out to a national level it’s not really compared to what a healthy west to east wave under a block can look like wrt geographic coverage. This run was perfect for us in every way but even there the temps were iffy at times for south of DC.

Funny you’re the one making the most noise

That was the point of my post a couple hours ago in the long range thread. Yes there will be hits somewhere from this setup. But the snowfall area won’t be as expansive as it should with a normal temp profile for late January in this pattern.

Facts can’t penetrate truthyness