psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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Still no sign of blocking breaking down. But it has to actually help at some point lol. My guess if it holds i through early Feb it will. Kinda hard to run a block through Jan 20-Feb 10 and not snow. That would be something
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I see the potential. I’ve been leading the charge on the potential. But the way you worded it confused me. “That would be a memorable run” threw me. Not if it went down exactly as shown lol.
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So long as that blocking is there we will have a shot at every wave. But there is a real problem on the pac side. The ridge is retrograding too fast and really pulling the us trough too far west.
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I’m pointing out what it shows.
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We’re also getting a lot of bad luck here. We’ve been cold enough, not cold but cold enough, to snow recently but the last several waves got shredded. We need less split of the trough in this upcoming pattern. I still doubt these cutter looks with that block.
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What para are you looking at?
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Gefs is beyond frustrating through day 13. The means look good wrt precip/temps but nada on the snow maps. Looking into individual members reveals why. The temps are skewed colder by cold dry members. The wet members are warm. It’s either suppressed members or cutters. Lol
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12z Gfs had the epo ridge and did the same
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What pattern isn’t frustrating lol
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Instead of a broad spread out w-e trough under the epo/NAO ridge (which is typically what you would expect) the guidance tries to split the trough and pump a ridge in between. Ugh
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That suppressed storm is north on the ensemble and Gfs so I don’t mind seeing the euro south. Still think we see even better opportunities as the block retrogrades but that isn’t a bad window. So we should close this thread then since this is for pattern and threats 7+ days out? We have a different thread for day 3-6 stuff now.
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@Ji now go to bed
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And remember...the op Gfs did EVERYTHING wrong days 1-10 then still managed to get a flush hit because of that block. Even if other factors aren’t great that block given enough chances might come through. But yea I’d like the Pac to cooperate more and not make this so god darn difficult.
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They come out 1-3am. For now enjoy the Jan 27 HECS on the GFS
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No one should be giving up on anything past day 6 with that kind of blocking.
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GFS op is doing what the 18z op did...not a poleward enough EPO ridge...so it dumps all the trough into the west and pumps an eastern ridge... the block can only so do much about that.
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It's not REALLY a cutter...it tracks right over us and transfers...miller b hybrid that doesn't jump in time. And I would wait another couple days before being sure that solution is likely...were still at the range where things could change significantly and given that blocking...it wouldn't shock me if the changes is south. That said...we continue to not see the cold press the way we really need...and that is something that can't be ignored since its been a common theme for a LONG time.
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isnt that the storm the euro had as a deep south snowstorm lol
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It’s ok to point it out. The pac jet has interfered with numerous attempts at poleward heat flux. Even without the epo that block would put is in the game but it would be a much easier road with a more poleward ridge.
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Have you noticed you’ve said this about 300 times
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If we’re lucky
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The 18zgefs does not agree wrt EPO. Even stronger poleward ridge then 12z. Was probably just an op at range on a tangent.
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Ha and the block still forces a low under us even after it starts in the upper Midwest...but without the epo we don’t get the expansive cold press so again it’s a narrow as bleep snow area.
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18z Gfs op lost the epo ridge totally. Instead it’s a flat central pac ridge and we see the results. The blocking is crazy but it can’t offset that pac. Hopefully it’s just a bad op run.
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Yes.....
