psuhoffman

That’s because we don’t believe in global warming...

This is actually a very good look for getting progressive waves with cold around...this has worked before..the key is getting the SE ridge suppressed just enough. That can happen various ways...a well times TPB lobe rotating across to our north... a series of waves where the first knocks down heights, that was how we got so many waves in 2014 and 2015. It isn't an HECS look but it is a snowy one. The GEFS and GEPS not so much...so lets bank on the EPS dominance right now.

So do it... talk about the long range weather however you want to talk about it. All you do is complain about what other people are talking about and how they are talking about it.

get to work

@RevWarReenactor You also were asking earlier about the odds for this year... There have been 12 prior years where DC entered February with 1" or less of snow. In those years DC recieved these totals the rest of winter. 0, 10.7, 1.7, .1, 8.9, 24.3, 3.1, 4, 7, 2.8, 28.6, 6.5. The mean of those years is 8.2" and the median is 5.8". Only 25% of those years did DC not get the 2.4" it needs to avoid your scenario so odds are against that. There have been 23 years where DC had 2" or less going into Feb. The mean of those years was 7.8" and median 6.5". Only 26% of the time they didnt get the 2.4" the rest of the way. There have been a few fluke times where DC got slammed after going into February in a similar situation as now. But odds say the most likely result is DC gets somewhere between 4-9" the rest of the way...which will put this year into the just plain typically bad category but avoid the "worst snow period ever" thing you are using.

In the last 30 years DC has had 3" or more of snow between March 1-15th 23% of the time DC has had 3" or more of snow between Jan 1-15th 13% of the time. Those are just facts. Those averages are going to change...they do not YET take into account the last 10 years...and they still factor in the 1980's...When the 80s come off the books and the 2010s go on at the end of this year March will become snowier. We had a historically bad run in March during the last 30 year climo period. Additionally because the last week of January is VERY snowy and the second half of March is NOT...it skews the month of January snowier than March as a whole month. But the first half of March is snowier than the first half of January in terms of the odds of getting snow. Additionally there were some HUGE storms in January like 1996 that skew the "average" but that has nothing to do with the odds of simply getting a snowstorm. Truth is we have a higher chance of getting a snow in early march than early january according to recent results.

yea people can take it however they want...but last year with 16.9" DC had its 7th snowiest winter in the last 30 years.

Yes it has been below avg...I said you are exaggerating not that there is no truth...but you go from 0 to 60 with nothing in between ever. It's hard to answer how long because we just had an above average snowfall year LAST YEAR...and you seem to be tossing that aside like nothing. We recently had a 7 year stretch of below avg snowfall every year from 2004 to 2009. We had 6 year stretches from 1997 to 2002 and 1990 to 1995. So we have a LONG way to go to get to that level. As for your "4 year" thing... since this winter isn't over yet that is hypothetical only. If we get no snow at all this year...then yes this will be the lowest 4 year snowfall period ever. It means exactly what it means. But all that is showing is how our climo has changed. I think its a real trend that DC has a harder time fighting and scrumming its way to a decent snowfall total in "bad" years. The odds of us getting a snowy winter have not gone down...we still get a snowy winter on average 25% of the time. The difference is in the non snowy years...DC is more likely to end up with some god awful total like 3-5" than 50 years ago when DC would usually scrap its way to 10" or so even in a bad year. So because of that...when you measure a modern period that doesn't include one of those BIG 25% years...it is likely to be the "worst" ever because our snowfall is going down in non good years. 50 years ago a bad snow year in DC was 8" and today that same pattern would likely produce 3" because of the warmer base state today and the increased urban heat island effect. A lot of storms that would help DC get some snow in a bad year is just rain now. But that isnt the weather hating on you...its just our new normal.

Yea except I am sure some clown will point out how it had that one run at day 9 where it bombed us with snow to show its crap and models suck blah blah blah

sorry...don't mean to be short. People are having melt downs over very op run fluctuation...going crazy over a threat this weekend we KNEW was very very very low odds to begin with... jumping to conclusions before the whole model suite including ensembles comes in... over reacting to things that weren't even a big deal. That wave next week was ALWAYS a cutter...every run of every model took it way north of us for the last 5 days yet suddenly today people started making a big deal about that for some reason???!!! Worrying about a shift on an op run at day 9... everyone is acting full tilt right now because it hasn't snowed.

My post is not specific to the CMC.

Trust me...we want it south on the GFS at this range...its been too cold all winter at range. If the euro goes suppressed consistently then I will worry a bit more...still not much at that range. The EPS is all over the place shotgun style right now with that storm.

I don't even care if the storm this weekend hits...its a super long shot hail mary...I just want the possibility of it to linger long enough for the next legit threat to get closer before everyone has to turn their attention 100% to that...so we don't have to have these melt down's with every minor adjustment at day 8/9/10 ....

Shhhhh people are too busy having a melt down pity party

@RevWarReenactor I also think one issue is with HOW our snow typically comes...and it simply doesn't jive with how you want it to come. But its the reality. Our snowiest weeks statistically are between January 20th and March 15th. And it's not even close...the odds of snow the first 15 days of March are DOUBLE the odds of snow the first half of January even...and 3 times higher than the odds of snow the second half of December! But you pretty much toss any snow we get after Feb 20th because of "sun angle" and melting and all that jazz. And yea...snow in later Feb and Mar will likely melt fast and have trouble sticking to roads and all that. You are right. that is what late snow is like...but you are tossing like 30% of our snowfall when you do that. If you break the winter up into chunks...Feb 15-Mar15 would be the second snowiest part of winter behind Jan 15-Feb 15 and its not even close...way way way snowier than anything before Jan 15th. So the issue is a LOT of our snow comes late...and that is our normal climo...and you dont like that. I get the feeling you want a lot of snow to come in December and early January...and get frustrated every year when we get to mid january with crappy results...but the truth is that is our normal climo. The odds of 3" of snow the first half of December is ONLY 13%. The odds the second half of Dec are even worse...only 6%!. The odds of 3" of snow between Jan 1-15th and only...13%. They go way way up after that and stay high until mid March...but you are already frustrated by the time our chances of snow increase late January every year. That is part of this imo...

1. Not 5 years. LAST year was the 7th snowiest DC winter in the last 30 years! Stop saying you have to go back 5-6 years. LAST year was a snowy winter in DC by DC standards. 2. The storm last January wasn’t a warmish storm or period. It came during a 6 day stretch where DCA recorded highs in the 30s when the avg is 43*. The day of the snow the high was 32. It was a cold storm and period by DC standards. Snow was on the ground for several days.

I’m NOT saying the ICON is right. Just that these relatively minor adjustments for a day 5-6 track are probably within normal fluctuations run to run and not necessarily a model trend in the icon. It’s been bouncing around a somewhat similar idea for a while.

It’s likely these day 5-6 bounces your seeing in the icon is just run to run noise within a not that accurate Model. Every jump west or east isn’t a trend.

You continue to exaggerate. Let’s break down your points... 1. Only if you make up the number for one of the 4. This winter is only about 58% through DC snow climo. In years where DC entered Feb with less than an inch of snow it still hit 5”+ the rest of the way the majority of time. So history does not support your assumption DC doesn’t get 2.4” the rest of winter. And if they do you have absolutely no statistical case left so your position is tenuous at best. 2. Ok let’s not go back 6 years let’s go back 1 year. Last year was an above average GOOD snowfall year in DC. The 7th snowiest year in the last 30! 3. I’m not going back 10 years to banner seasons. From 2014-2016 was the snowiest 3 year stretch in the last 40 years and it just ended 4 years ago! Since then we have had 1 awful 1 typical crappy and 1 good snowfall year. That’s a normal split for any 3 year period. Especially following the best 3 years of the last 40 years!!!

That look at the very end is far from great but it’s more workable than we’ve had. We’re looking to get lucky at this point. Any sustained good pattern is unlikely given the pacific pattern this year. Maybe in March. But that look could work if we get an ejection of tightly spaced progressive waves. Something like March 2015. There was a 2-4” snow in Feb 2018 that followed that progression also. I could list off more. But a lot of times those type waves hit just north of us like the one in February 2017 orearly Feb 2014 where caboose waves gave south central PA 6-10” and DC/BWI rain. The risk we get skunked is there and it’s higher the further SE you go. That’s not a good look at all if you’re in Richmond or NC. But it’s a look we sometimes snow in. Kinda crappy is better then totally crappy.

Getting my coffee now! I think the idea this amplified more is still alive but I understand the people on the coastal plain being blah about it. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place because of the lack of cold. It will be very hard to keep the boundary layer cold enough absent an absolutely perfect deform thump east of the fall line.

Because of the way the stj wave interacts with the NS it’s like a miller b. The stj wave is just an extension of the trough. It has no closed circulation and light precip initially. Might as well pretend it doesn’t exist because it sent get the job done until it phases and starts to bomb. Once that happens and it develops a healthy circulation with a commahead then it could work. But that process simply happens just north of DC. Kind of miller b like in that respect.

Everyone needs to come crash up here for the weekend. that highlights stormtrackers point though. When it’s struggling to get to 32 at 1100 feet with that track...at sea level it’s going to be a struggle. Only way is to get it to bomb and deform the crap out of 95. 1” hr+ rates would be needed.

Yea...last year wasn’t bad though. DC got a 10” storm. That’s pretty rare.

They seem to take themselves too seriously imo. Also kinda dead compared to here.