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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    Anyone curious what I thought of the gfs
  2. psuhoffman
    Trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend trend
  3. psuhoffman
    what did I miss? @Ji that’s the toll that must be paid. To get a big amplification we need the blocking to relax but that means the wave isn’t going to get trapped as a 50/50 and the next wave is likely a cutter. If we’re lucky we get enough CAD to avoid a total washout. Maybe if it comes out in weaker pieces... The blocking looks to reload pretty quickly after.
  4. psuhoffman
    There is a lot more that could go right
  5. psuhoffman
    2016 was the last time we saw this level of agreement in the eps at this range. Even the control looks like a carbon copy wrt axis of snow as the eps mean. Uncanny
  6. psuhoffman
    It is...if we assume there is NO further south adjustment. That’s very possible we’re about the range the euro locked into roughly the final outcome for the last few waves. And there are reasons this won’t be as suppressed. Frankly Thursday wouldn’t have been if not for some really bad luck wrt timing those 2 discreet vorts in front and on top. We see no such countermanding features this time. But it’s hard to ignore the seasonal trend. That and this is just my jam. Fear the fringe!
  7. psuhoffman
    Optimist me: these might be the two most beautiful post 100 ensemble progs I’ve ever seen!
  8. psuhoffman
    They look slightly south of where I would want them. 0z was PERFECT. 12z ticked slightly south again. Don’t get me wrong they look AMAZING but the northern part of the forum (Baltimore Northwest) is running out of wiggle room for any future adjustments south. That said we’re about the range guidance has been locking on here so maybe this was the last of the bumps south.
  9. psuhoffman
    I’m slightly worried about the south trend. That northern cutoff is getting mighty close to me...
  10. psuhoffman
    It went 30 miles too far south. STOP and back up just a tiny bit.
  11. psuhoffman
    I need that to her to the off the Delmarva before turning east... then it’s a forum wide win.
  12. psuhoffman
    That’s just about the textbook location of every significant DC snowstorm. Wouldn’t mind it deepening a few more MB.
  13. psuhoffman
    UK is perfectly acceptable. 4-6” through 144 and still snowing
  14. psuhoffman
    0z bullseyed northern VA. I don’t think we want it to keep trending south at this point. It’s good...especially for us...right now. 6z was good. Just pointing that out.
  15. psuhoffman
    DC has had 1 warning event in 6 years and were tossing a 6-8” snowstorm as a fail now?????
  16. psuhoffman
    I’m cautiously optimistic. I would probably be even more so if not for the recent burn. It’s almost an identical setup to the one I liked so much this week only this time so far no sign of rogue waves to mess it up.
  17. psuhoffman
    It obviously doesn’t know our climo and commitment to suck
  18. psuhoffman
    This is about the range where the euro finished making its big southward adjustments the last few waves. So I’m hopeful this time we’re close to where it latches on and it’s only minor adjustments from here on out. But yea we don’t want much more south at this point.
  19. psuhoffman
    Yes but we should remind ourselves as @CAPE said...they can also be frustrating as hell because they suppress and often we have to wait and wait and wait and it’s typically as it breaks down or relaxes that we get our best threat.
  20. psuhoffman
    I would say the EPS supports the op...more then I expected Seriously the south trend can stop RIGHT THERE!!!!!
  21. psuhoffman
    Total EPS QPF for the storm
  22. psuhoffman
    Impressive wedge for that range
  23. psuhoffman
    EPS
  24. psuhoffman
    Geps agrees
  25. psuhoffman
    The GEFS is trending the wrong way for them.
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