psuhoffman

So if we can’t snow with these temps and this precip for week 2..... let the debate whether we are the Browns or Bengals begin...

Seemed good enough to me. Moved the right way with the day 11/12 threat. It's closer to a good result than previous runs. This run it dives a northern stream feature in and keys on that... there are 2 minor adjustments though that would make this setup work. Either get rid of that NS feature and focus on the STJ one. Or have it dig more. After that its setting up a good look at the end Confluence locked in to our north, that wave is going to get forced under us.

After a solid week of the MJO signal improving (moving towards a strong 7/8) today was the first day it took a step back, more towards a quick death in 7 then a recycle towards 6. That is something to keep an eye on. But even if it did recycle towards 6 so long as it progressed from there it might only be a brief relax in an overall cold period.

Couple things... I thought Snowy was calling for a cold/snowy second half of winter...did he change his mind on that? But more importantly, not sure I get what their point is wrt the IO base state. It is true that a wave near the dateline is "better" but a phase 2/3 in February is a cold look also. So not sure what that was about...

Can't ask for a better signal at long range day 8-15 EPS surface temps EPS 850 EPS mean Precip

The op gfs has a completely different pattern evolution next week than the GEFS/GEPS/EPS. Old runs, the 12z is "coming around" and if it werent for really bad timing with the lakes low probably would be a snowstorm... but the difference is how they have been handling the ridging across Canada. ALL guidance agrees that early next week we get a strong ridge near Hudson bay in conjunction with a western ridge slightly too far east...a ridge near Hudson would be perfect if we had a -PNA (but of course as soon as we need a western trough it abandons us LOL) but with a western ridge centered east of the perfect and a strong ridge near Hudson that is a very suppressive look and a great look for a possible SE snowstorm. I would love the look next week if I was on the outer banks. After that the op GFS was alone in sliding the whole of the ridge near Hudson Bay into New England. The rest of guidance breaks a piece off but the main ridge hangs back and remains anchored near Hudson Bay. The op GFS ends up redeveloping a new Ridge in western Canada but that creates a weakness between the ridge in the northeast and the one in the west for a trough to amplify to our west op GFS from 6z. I highlighted the features I mentioned. All other guidance agrees with the GEFS look for this same time Hence the EPS/GEFS/GEPS all agree on a risk of a snowstorm in the day 10-15 period while the op GFS had a warm solution.

GFS trended towards the euro wrt what I posted earlier...it was clear to see pretty early on in the midwest, sharper trough, more consolidated system, not good. Frankly the GFS has been trending that way for the last 24 hours also...it just overcame it with a stronger mid level flow out ahead but as the trough continues to sharpen that energy will end up directed northwest of us.

It beefed up precip slightly towards the end...AFTER we lose the column for snow. Might be more "icy" 6z v 0z but less snowy...I am NOT a fan of ice so for those that want ice 6z could possibly be a better run. Preference. But if you look at precip early on when we have the column it was a slight reduction hence the cut in snowfall totals across MD.

up until 12z runs...the GGEM/GFS are in agreement with a broader mid level flow and lead wave, the Euro/ICON agree on no lead wave. I haven't seen anyone post the UKMET so no idea what it's doing. I will be interested to see what the high resolution guidance does once it gets into range.

From the precip distribution pattern I would guess the ICON is in the euro camp wrt the mid level flow.

@H2O The effect is even more dramatic at 18z GFS Euro There are 2 ways to look at this... The Euro is actually the colder solution with a better SLP track and CAD. If it adjusts towards a broader mid level trough which allows a front runner wave with more mid level WAA directed into the mid atlantic...the euro might actually end up BETTER than the GFS/GGEM. Keep in mind it still manages 1-2" across our area Saturday evening even though it has NOTHING during the day Saturday when the GFS is thumping us. It is significantly colder. On the other hand if the euro is right and the system ends up with a very sharp mid level trough that directs all the WAA to our west there is a severe cap on how much frozen we can really get with this given the primary low is most definitely going to track well northwest of us.

The Euro has a sharper trough at the surface and mid levels and this creates a compact system as opposed to the GFS which has a more broad trough which directs more mid level winds (hence WAA) east into the mid atlantic vs the euro. In essense the GFS (and GGEM) have a frontrunner wave and the euro does not. At the surface the GFS is actually further north than the euro and warmer. The euro is colder and less amplified with the surface system BUT you can see from the isobars that there is no energy being directed east into the cold air compared to the gfs at 12z Saturday. Hence the lack of WAA precip extending east. Euro GFS It's a lot easier to see at the mid levels H7 heights and winds Look how the trough and winds are oriented on the euro GFS

The temps are very similar on the gfs/gem/euro. But compared to the 1”+ qpf the others are spitting out during this same time period the euro is simply too weak with the WAA precip. keep in mind some of that (as with the others) is rain. So it’s really only showing about .25-.35 qpf over 12 hours when we have the colder profile...not very thumpy and not good enough to mix out the warm layer so it leans more sleet than snow. Still not nothing. Shows the potential for 1-2” of snow/sleet across the area but it’s a more typical minor event compared to the depiction it (and some other guidance still) was throwing out there earlier. Still time to change.

6z eps isn’t going to make many friends. Problem isn’t temps. The euro is shifting the WAA precip across PA to our north. It’s very dry here. Basically a period of light mixed precip yo dryslot then some showers with the front.

Gem actually trended quite a bit colder and south

When did it trend slower/Amped? Euro has tended to be over amped about day 4-6. Then sometimes over corrects and trends slightly more amped again in the short range. I’ve noticed that cycle several times the last couple years.

We’re still at a range where these shifts are noise. Only feels significant because we are on thin ice in west track scenarios needing everything to go right. But if we were in Binghamton NY the last few runs probably seem nearly identical. And it’s only the euro that trended north not all guidance. Lot of time

Is there a stage where your posts get better? Asking for a friend.

The gfs and euro are pretty similar wrt to the major h5 features but the euro is 5mb deeper in the Midwest with the surface low. The amplification slows the system and pulls it north. Wrt to everything else they are fairly similar for that range.

18z eps was not a good run.

It’s pretty obvious that storms like Feb 83, Jan 96, Feb 03, Dec 09, Feb 10, Jan 16 are roughly our max potential. (And a potential of 24-36” region wide is nothing to scoff at). There are lots of colder places that would be envious of our top end potential. The exact placement of the snow max will depend on meso banding but those storms were all examples of max potential around here. 2003 was the oddball in that it lacked blocking but it had a monster 50/50 to compensate. The rest had blocking.

18z op euro slightly less amped in the Midwest and colder in front at 90 when it ends. Won’t extrapolate but that isn’t a bad thing.

That wasn’t my point. I was just saying it’s still a looooooong way out there. NWS is conservative.

Everywhere in our region except the places like Snowshoe Canaan and Deep Creek temps are more correlated with snow than precip. That is even more true on the coastal plain than west of the fall line. Up here on Parr’s Ridge it’s a closer call but still temps. (On a weekly bases, not necessarily daily as obviously you need precip to be snowing).

EPS has been very consistent. GEPS was good too. One gefs run doesn’t phase me. And I’m probably being greedy here but wouldn’t it be nice to score a couple hits before Feb and roll into our snowiest month pretty much already having achieved our goal and be able to just relax and take anything that comes as icing on the cake? No more needing a homerun in the bottom of the 9th crap!