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psuhoffman

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  1. psuhoffman
    I agree that’s greedy but I didn’t set the premise or the ratios @Ji did. A 50” winter for me is actually less above normal then a 20” winter is in DC! A 20” DC winter is equivalent to a 57” winter here. ETA: but if we aren’t going to adjust for local climo then I’m a hard no. In the last 20 years only 3 were worse then 20” so I’d take my chances lol
  2. psuhoffman
    Cmc ensembles target central VA for the day 9 threat.
  3. psuhoffman
    I thought we stopped with the storm name thing. Besides I’m sure some high school kid from Delaware on Twitter called it back in June.
  4. psuhoffman
    Makes total sense now
  5. psuhoffman
    The mean to our north is skewed high by a camp of members that really bomb the storm and crush just to our northeast. Kind of a miller b evolution but a hybrid not a total screw job here. But there is a camp that’s still somewhat suppressed and targets just to our south. That’s not a bad spot to be at this range.
  6. psuhoffman
    Something is definitely broken
  7. psuhoffman
    The block retrogrades a bit too far west this run which allows the 50/50 to escape and too much ridging. That’s part of why the storm gains so much latitude before the jump. Ggem looks similar at the surface but for a completely different reason. The blocking stays further east but links up with the mid latitude ridge which causes a cutter. Both still get us some frozen despite a west track. The big takeaway is the American globals finally picked up on a healthy wave ejecting there.
  8. psuhoffman
    This run the NS wave (1) came in behind the southern wave (2) and phased. Want this to become a monster for us just need that NS to dig a bit more. Once they phase the upper feature tracks east under the block but that happens just north of our latitude.
  9. psuhoffman
    6z gfs wasn’t that bad. Speed the NS up or slow it down and it was close to a better solution. This NS wave(1) which keeps changing every run suppressed the flow in front. Get it out of the way and the next one (3) can dig in. Slow it and get it behind the southern wave (2) and it would phase. Just need that to adjust. It actually ejected a healthy wave that run.
  10. psuhoffman
    It’s been positive and that did us no good...a -pna can work if other factors line up. There are also signs the ridge will retrograde into the SW eventually.
  11. psuhoffman
    The first flex of the NAO failed. That’s over and done. We had a great -NAO but there was no cold in the pattern. We wasted it. So all those calls were wrong. Now we’re tracking the next round of blocking. There looks to be more cold this time. Or would you prefer we just pack it in and go home because the last one failed?
  12. psuhoffman
    I still think the waves the 24-30 have potential. But it’s also true we do better as blocking relaxes and we may be anxious and so jumping the gun. We might need to wait for the flow to relax.
  13. psuhoffman
    Cmc ensemble doesn’t agree with suppressed either. Actually more rain then suppressed members.
  14. psuhoffman
    It never does but the op is blowing it way Ensemble verification is better at that range. But I want to see this show up in op runs soon
  15. psuhoffman
  16. psuhoffman
    Gefs does not agree with the op fwiw
  17. psuhoffman
    372...we flip to rain by 384
  18. psuhoffman
    That block is blocking lol but IMO the bigger issue is the orientation of the trough/ridge to our west. The western trough cuts off and sits in a bad spot on the op gfs. Too far west for anything to amplify through the ridge not far enough west to let something dig into the east. That western trough needs to either shift east and link up with the eastern trough or more likely pull back enough to let the ridge pull west and something can amplify in the east.
  19. psuhoffman
    Phasing wasn't even close on gfs It wasn’t close but it wasn’t so far off that it’s impossible. It got the NS SW out ahead of the southern feature. No dice. It needed to dig a little more and get in behind. Timing was off.
  20. psuhoffman
    That’s sad. Someone in this sub did something really really really wrong and you need to make amends. Now
  21. psuhoffman
    There are 3 southern waves there...we need one to phase with the NS
  22. psuhoffman
    @stormtracker I’m looking at the ensemble members in the eps and gefs that had hits from that wave on the 25th. They phase that NS wave that the op run just ran out ahead. That has to be behind the southern feature and phase. Otherwise the southern feature won’t survive the shred factory flow. If that doesn’t happen we need to wait as the trough/ridge retrograde until it pulls back enough to let the eastern trough axis pull back some.
  23. psuhoffman
    Here comes another Deep South snow ok this is comical
  24. psuhoffman
    The NS SW came across on top of it instead of phasing and the southern SW got left behind. Eta: that never works. We need the southern energy in front and the NS diving in behind.
  25. psuhoffman
    Not much of the wave left. It’s light rain because the southern feature sheared out.
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