psuhoffman

Trough is way too amplified too far west. Pumps ridging ahead. No confluence. Cutter. But a whole lot of higher heights up top by day 10. I know patience is difficult but after the AO/NAO bottoms out and starts to relax is our favored time.

Those are the big 5 storms

@Ji Just sayin maybe we should let this play out. The blocking is just establishing itself next week. With each wave break it retrogrades more into a canonical blocking regime. Both the TPV and SPV look to get obliterated soon. We typically score after the blocking peaks not before.

Not hating the mean precip distribution during that same period either

Finally starting to see the temp anomalies we need showing up.

Seen worse

Would it have been iconic?

Fixed

That was always BS. We are still suffering from that fall pattern though. Left us void of a domestic cold air source. Sometimes in that situation blocking takes a while to pay off. Seriously go back end look at the January 2016 thread. We had good blocking for a while before that storm and I remember this exact same conversation. My guess is if the PV gets obliterated and we get a -AO for a significant portion of winter we will do ok. Maybe better then ok. Probably not good enough to make you happy though.

Hard to tell it all gets mixed with timing issues between the waves. Track for the period after looks good but it’s all rainy solutions on the eps. Disappointing

There are definitely 2 camps in the Eps. Cutter and more southern track.

Yea something it’s trended towards today...there are 2 systems in close proximity crashing into the west next week. Earlier runs had a bit more space and the initial wave ejected. The 2nd dug in the SW and was eventually a threat around Jan 3-5. This run (and EPS supports) there isn’t much space and the lead wave washes out and most of the energy gets absorbed into the second which amplified the trough way too much to our west. EPS has a good look around day 11-13 fWIW

The pac isn’t a dumpster fire that wave is just too amplified too early. The look day 10 is good.

Ji isn’t totally wrong. The analogs to that look aren’t that bad. Lots of snow outcomes. That kind of blocking historically would overcome a bad pac most of the time. He might be on to a sobering reality that in a warmer regime now it no longer can. I’m not jumping there yet. One run. Last run snowed on us. I’ll see how this plays out. But there are a lot of runs that torch us right through a crazy block period. If that ends up reality I would be a little disheartened...not just by the short term disappointment but the long term implications. to be clear i don’t mean if we just get unlucky and a phase happens too late or a storm gets suppressed. But if we get a -3stdv AO and a west based block and everything cuts...I don’t care what the pac looks like history suggests that line of look can overcome the pac. If we need both the pac and atl to be perfect to get snow...well we won’t see it very often!

Yea this run it dumps way too much energy into the west.

With the pac not ideal we still need spacing. The wave slows and amplified too early allowing too much spacing between it and the miller b that becomes the 50/50. Look up top is good. Other things are the problem there. We need that system to eject and be less amplified out west to work.

Cutter

CMC never gets it here. For the second run it gets to TX then loops for 4 days blocked from moving east at all. From what I’ve seen the ensembles are all over and don’t key on anything. A lot of shred factory dry members. Some miller b screw jobs. A few big hits sprinkled in. Some misses to the south. Shotgun spread so no signal.

I guess those were ok storms

Maybe I’m wrong but I never thought it was established enough yet for that first wave after Xmas. Its the waves after that that interest me.

Good gfs run. It’s catching on.

@frd wrt HMs comments he may have been alluding to my observation that Mjo waves in conflict with a dominant base state do not have the same impact on the pattern as when the MJO is driving or in synergy with the dominant pattern. A brief warm phase mjo in a -NAM base state won’t hurt is as much as when the MJO goes ape in warm phases during a +NAM state.

@frd good morning. Nice updates. Couple thoughts. 1. I think for a while we’re going to have to roll the dice with domestic cold. The WPO trough is prevented cross polar flow but it’s also preventing the Nina from taking over also. Overall it’s a trade off I’ll take. Domestic cold worked in January 2016 btw. But not before some frustrating rainy coastals earlier in the month. So long as the source regions in Canada aren’t super warm even air that is a little above normal there will usually work mid winter is discharged south into our region. If the NAO and AO really tank (and some guidance suggests it will) and exerts pressure to retrograde the WPO a little further west and allow an epo ridge (the famous ridge bridge) then we could see a colder regime. 2. I am by no means a Strat expert. But in my experience whenever we have had a PV “event” that leads to extended blocking during the core of winter there were hints in the TPV before the stratospheric warning or wind reversal. In 2009 the TPV was already a mess before the SPV collapsed. I’ve never seen the TPV in a completely hostile state mid winter and a SSW suddenly saves us. 2018 was the closest to that but it happened very late in the season. There is some synergy there but that’s why I don’t spend a lot of time focusing on the strat to hope for a save. Typically you see it coming at the trop level also. This would be a perfect example.

@Ji let’s analyze this though. Then I’m getting some sleep. The GFS drives that storm up into a blocked in high and it literally makes it to Erie and gets shredded. Then jumps hundreds of miles SE and redevelops off the coast. How often is that how it plays out? Usually it jumps once it hits that kind of confluence not 12 hours after being sheared to oblivion by it. Path of least resistance and all. Meanwhile the CMC has so much blocking that storm never even makes it here. It gets to Texas and spins loops for 3 days because there is literally too much blocking. I’m gonna say we should wait and that’s is a lot of room for this to adjust. Not the least of which is how the miller b around Dec 28 affects this and guidance is still shifting with that. But goodnight. Hopefully tomorrow we get the digital snow you want.