psuhoffman

Yes, it’s pretty good, workable at least, straight through. I just picked one panel. It’s also been backing off on the AK trough the last few runs which would help. It also, like the GEFS and GEPS, is retrograding the NAO block more and more into January. If the looks the globals are teasing are correct we should snow somewhere in the next 2-3 weeks. Problem is way too many SWs in the flow to pick out any one threat as THE ONE yet.

Close...

Btw there is a chance (which is typical) we are rushing this. It’s possible we get one of these waves in the next 13 days to hit...but it’s also true we usually do better as blocking regimes relax or break down. The guidance (all 3 majors) are building the -AO/NAO and even improving the pac some (which is linked) into early January. And given the evidence right now there is no reason to think it’s a fantasy. The AO and NAO have not been hostile this year. There is a chance our best window comes in January.

No 14 was neutral 15 was weak Nino

Thanks... I am going to straight up drop kick the first person who complains if we get a 6-10" snowstorm in the 95 corridor. It's a Nina. Expectations!!!

I think we need to stop focusing on getting the PERFECT pattern and look at what works in a Nina. We likely are not getting a picture perfect pacific pattern. Nor do we need the ABSOLUTE perfect block to get a snowstorm. We do if we want a HECS. But we likely aren't getting a 20" HECS storm either...there has only been 1 of those (1996) EVER in a Nina going back to 1900! But we have had plenty of warning level snowfalls in a Nina. This is the composite of 6 of the best Nina snowstorms since 1950 between Dec 15 and Jan 30 at BWI. I left off really early and after Feb 1 storms because our snow climo wrt what works is slightly different very early and later in the season. So these are good "models" for what works this time of year in a nina. All of these were warning 5"+ events at BWI and some of them were very nice ~10" events in our area. Here is what I take away from that look, and what has worked in past Nina's to get snow. Notice that trough in and around AK. No that is not ideal but its acting to suppress the pacific ridge associated with a Nina. In that regards...its actually helping more then its hurting assuming it stays centered WEST of AK. If it shifts east too much its a problem and we get flooded with pac puke. Centered west of AK and it damages the thermal profile of the CONUS yes but its not fatal. There can be just enough trough into the east to get domestic polar air into the northeast. It is what it is...you lose that trough there and the central PAC ridge goes APE and its all over...you get a trough in the NW and ridge out in the east. The -NAO is critical to this because it helps retrograde that trough out of western North America just enough to make this workable. Lose the -AO/NAO and the Nina PAC ridge can exert itself and that trough in AK shifts east into NW NAM and its last year all over! Notice also the NAO is centered east of ideal there. But what is critical to get that to work is to have SOME extension of the ridge west towards Hudson Bay. But...that said...there are some analogs in there where the NAO blocking is centered pretty far east (2000 is one recent example) and still managed to work out. There are also numerous other decent snowfalls...advisory in the city and warning NW that I didn't bother to include but that show a similar picture in terms of how to get snow in a Nina and what typically works.

It's too far east to get a HECS probably but we can get a good old regular snowstorm with blocking there. We focus way too much on the HECS look. That look is super rare...happens only a handful of times a decade and if were lucky a couple hit. But MOST, by a LARGE %, of our snowfall comes during good but not PERFECT patterns with slight flaws.

Yes that could change but I think we need to see it move that way in the next 24 hours. We’re getting to that range where the globals have been picking up on the general synoptic setups. We’re right at the lead time where the primary shifted south on guidance opening up the opportunity last week. I’m not sold on any solution yet. But it looks like there are possibly 4 waves between Dec 28-Jan 5 with blocking setup. They will all affect one another. Spacing and if they amplify into the 50/50 space. I don’t have a strong feel for how the specifics play out but I do think we would be incredibly unlucky to come out of that period without one decent snowfall. We can pick on the minor imperfections but fact is the look is plenty good enough to snow. Excellent AO/NAO. Strong STJ. Mediocre PAC. That should be good enough to get some snow imo.

It happens in extreme blocking. I’ve seen analogs like that. But it’s usually a fail for our area. Can’t say 100% sometimes crazy stuff happens but we want a the primary to be bottoming out at our latitude or lower to have a better chance.

The primary comes across too far north. It’s that way across all guidance. Unless that changes (it could) it’s inevitably a miller b screw job. We could eeek out some snow but it’s the setup where we watch north of us cash in. However, a bombing system the 28 helps the setup after.

When 2016 showed up at day 10 it was rain on the euro also. Same reason...marginal airmass. We are getting closer to the part of climo where marginal air masses should work with a good track.

Been a nice week up here...barely lost any snow all week. Some shots from Friday and today From my walk Friday my jebwalk with my 2 year old this evening (at her insistence)

If it obliterates my healthy snowpack only to replace it with a fraction that’s not exactly a win. I’d rather simply avoid the 12 hour torch and keep my current snow lol. But for those not with snow OTG I can see the excitement.

I think he over reacted to 2 VERY good euro op runs yesterday and one EPS where it took a big move in that direction. He was probably expecting the EPS to continue trending and the op not to take a crap the next run (although I would argue it’s a great setup day 10 for something early next year). I think he jumped the gun and got emotional maybe but there was logic behind his thoughts. Even with some degradation today the look is close to a big storm look.

Euro doesn’t dive enough energy far enough south to do much for out Xmas wave idea. Just some flurries after the front unless you’re in the extreme NW parts of the region.

That’s the H5 from the end of January 2000.

Wrt my h5 post from 2000 above one key to getting that to work is the extension of the east based NAO ridge west into the Hudson Bay region.

It’s not our most typical look but it’s worked before

My bad

My bigger worry for the post Xmas threat is a miller b screw job not cutter. I’m talking about the Dec 28 period. Anything after that is way too far out to worry about.

Not surprisingly Imo. That disconnect between the mid levels and the surface while limiting big totals on the southern area also created a HUGE expense of significant snow. The initial WAA fgen snowfall band set up for a time where you would expect with that surface track. But the mid levels ended up driving the forcing WAY further NW then typical.

I think we might be differing based on perspective of location. I was analyzing based on 95 but that’s different from the eastern shore in coastal synoptic events. We did have a -NAO and a 50:50. The NAO wasn’t perfectly centered but how often is it? The high was still located near Montreal as the storm turned the corner in SC. To me that’s not a problem. The surface track ended up fine. That crazy up the bay track didn’t verify. It tracked east of VA beach then NNE to just off cape may. Of course that’s inside of where you want it but honestly you need a completely different look then west of the bay. You either need a progressive wave look or in the case of an amplified coastal setup a damn near PERFECT setup to score. With a coastal track a 3-6” to mix event in DC is mostly rain for you. But 95 has had warning events with the track that verified before. A slightly colder airmass and they would have this time. Or a slightly better mid level phased system. I can’t stress enough how anomalous that disconnect between the surface and mid levels was. It is NOT common to get 30-40” along the PA NY border from a surface system that tracks outside VA beach and Cape May. Their perfect track would be tucked up the Chesapeake Bay! There is a reason those areas don’t typically get 20”+ snowstorms. They are usually too far inland to benefit much from coastals. Or had that exact setup been in Jan/Feb with cooler SST even with the disconnect I doubt we see as fast a warm surge. With that mid level track we were never getting a HECS but could have had a warning level mix event into 95. But like I said...for the eastern shore not so much. It’s super difficult there. So much has to go exactly perfect that I get where you’re coming from.

Imo global operationals have become really amazing at giving a generally accurate (so long as you don’t expect dead on balls accurate details) look at synoptic setups once inside about 150 hours or so. Longer leads in some incredibly stable blocking patterns and less in volition ones but in general once inside 150 you get a decent idea what the general look will be. That’s an amazing thing considering day 6 used to be a complete crapshoot not long ago. But past 150 they go haywire fast. Chaos and exponential errors start to take over. So imo what’s more important then looking at the op output past 150 is to look at the general H5 pattern at about day 5/6 then extrapolate where that SHOULD go based on history. That is where the “woofs” are coming from. The look day 5/6 has a LOT of potential regardless of how any one op run handles the details after.

Holy....I’ve never seen the PV that obliterated.

One last point regarding super long range. For 3 weeks now guidance suddenly shifts to a central pac Nina ridge look after week 3. But the generally weak AO continues. But that pac look continues to get kicked in time as the WPO vortex persists. I think the guidance may be keying on the enso SST and missing the north pac pattern suppressing the Nina ridge. I think that north pac pattern may be a result of the very odd (for a Nina) warm waters to the north of the enso regions. We’ve seen this game before where guidance wants to shift the look to a classic enso response week 3+ but it never happens. The last two years were a classic example of this when the weak ninos were offset by other factors. It’s possible we are seeing the same but in out favor this time. Either way even if the pac goes to hell if we keep a -NAM state we could still get periods of opportunity unlike last year.