psuhoffman

Pretty good

You’re right. It was Jan 2013 that featured a big disgusting central pac ridge. 2012 was a consistent AK vortex with no NAO help. An AK vortex can be ok second half but only if you have a -NAO.

That looks kind of Feb 1993 2015ish. 1993 was GREAT just NW of this forum. My area northwest had 4 or 5 warning level events while DC was getting 1” changing to rain each time. 2015 worked out. That’s how that pattern goes. Gradient would set up somewhere and run waves. Get north of it and it’s a good look. End up south and it’s incredibly frustrating.

Im with you 100%. I’m just not sure the look we are getting now isn’t going to just run the table. It doesn’t always. But I guess for my own sanity I’m coming to grips with the fact that every so often (1989, 2002, 2008, 2012)we get a year where a really strong central pac ridge just wrecks the whole winter, and maybe this is one. If things flip better I will be excited but that way if it doesn’t I’m not frustrated every week until April. Get the frustration out of the way now and then just accept whatever comes. But to each their own way of coping!

It is. First of all there is some historical support for this week maybe working. There were a few modest snow events at the start of the awful pac ridge patterns in the analogs. And even though the pattern has sucked we are in flux. It was mostly an awful northern pac pattern that did us in the last 2 weeks. Early in the season that’s a killer. Later that becomes less a problem. But the central pac ridge is really just getting going now. After that though (and there are some good signs today and it’s not no hope that isn’t what I’m saying) I think people would be best to accept there is a chance that look locks in the rest of winter. History says (even if we add in the more hopeful but less comparable analogs I found) there is a greater than 50% chance it does. The top analogs showing up day after day are 1989, 2002, and 2008! Im not saying abandon hope. 2006 and 2007 sneak in there sometimes too and they both got somewhat better. If the NAO flips strongly negative all bets are off but we both know that’s rare when we enter mid winter with a raging positive AO/NAO combo. Not impossible but rare. But if we expect the worst it will only make it that much better if we get a snowy period later. But I fear some weenie souls might go crazy if they are checking in everyday expecting things to improve when there is a decent chance it won’t and this is the crap look we get straight through winter.

Gefs doesn’t have the Kara block (which is unlikely to be correct at that range) but it is heading towards right anyways. It’s building a -NAO and weakening and retrograding the pac ridge. What we need is the right in the NAO to be stronger than the one in the pac and then we will see the western trough broaden and slide east. It’s almost there at the end on this run.

Kara Block FTW

Given the +3 AO I almost expected to see the QBO had stalled. Once near 0 like it is now, in descending mode it should be helpful. I said back in fall that I wasn’t sure how much climate change had rendered seasonal analogs useless and this year would be telling imo. Because the climate models all said +NAM warm winter. They seem to have nailed it. But a warm neutral enso following a nino, descending QBO flipping, low solar, Atlantic Tripole, northeast pac warm pool winter should be at least somewhat cold/snowy. But recently other historically snowy enso neutral years had gone more crap. I posed the question, was that just bad luck or an indication enso neutral years are skewing less snowy in the new climate regime. If this year fails to me it leans more climate change then luck imo.

You will be doing significantly better in 2 weeks.

Good point...Denver does suck though.

I think the Ravens are the best and most likely team to win the SB. But don't sleep on KC. They have a good enough offense to win any one game in a shootout. Any given Sunday!

If we get no AO/NAO help neither regression or progression will save us. We would need an almost complete reversal of the pac pattern to work without any AO/NAO help. We would want a trough exactly where the ridge is. History suggests with that anomalous a ridge there, some progression/regression is realistic but not a total flip of the pac pattern. We actually had a bit of A0/NAO help last year, not as much as the long range guidance kept teasing us with...and so not enough to get the pattern good...just enough to keep it from being total crap. But with a hostile AO/NAO that pac is a total dumpster fire. We would need so much to change in a way that is highly unlikely there without getting a NAM state reversal that its not even really worth worrying about it imo. Just not gonna happen. Basically, if the NAM stays positive the rest of winter we will very likely end up with very little snow.

I would agree with this for EVERY other team in the NFL except KC. If the Ravens get the Chiefs (and I think they will) in the AFC championship that is the only time snow would likely advantage the Ravens. KC is equally reliant on speed and skill position players but its more reliant on that wrt their passing game. Baltimore is way more able to lean on their run game and win that type of game then KC is imo.

Some recent studies suggest the genesis of this might lay with what is going on to the SW of the enso regions though. Not sure it would really change that equation much. During a strong enso event that signal could overpower this phenomenon for a while, but after it might just revert if the cause is from the IO and waters near Australia.

I think whether we salvage a decent winter pattern sometime the second half depends on what the MJO does. Right now the surge into a high amplitude MC wave is feeding the central pac ridge. What happens late January into Feb depends on what happens with that wave. The long range euro implies it dies then recycles back towards the warm phases in early Feb. That would probably kill winter. We might get a transient shot at something during the week the MJO wave relaxes but by the time any decent pattern could establish the wave would be surging back into warm phases, pumping the pac ridge and its winter over at that point..being early Feb and about to recycle right back where we are now. That is the 2002/2008/2012 option. And the still warming water near the MC really bothers me because it gives credibility to that possibility. If the MJO can survive into phase 8/1/2/3 then we will likely see things evolve better. I do see signs that the Atlantic wants to help, but the current mjo state is going to fight that off. The pacific will defy any wave breaking attempts from the atlantic so long as we have a high amplitude phase 4/5/6. If we can get an appreciable period either without MJO influence, or better cold phase influence I do think the atlantic will be able to bully the pattern in our favor. Last nights euro run trended more favorably wrt the mjo progression. Ironically, and its why the GFS backed off on its colder look from yesterday, the GEFS flipped places with the EPS and now shows the MJO cycling in the warm phases with no end in sight. I think how this resolves is the key to our prospects for improvement. If we see the MJO trend towards a workable look in a week or so we might be ok. If we see it start to show signs of wanting to recycle (basically a standing wave in the MC) in the warm phases all winter we are in big big trouble. Just another MJO thought (maybe someone above my pay grade can answer this) but I was thinking about how the warm phases have a much higher correlation to temps here than the cold phases. I wonder how much of that is because the warm phases directly impact the pacific ridge amplitude/location but there are two cold phase locations. The phase 8/1 out near the dateline would more directly impact our pattern by forcing the ridge east into the EPO/PNA domain, where the cold phase waves off Africa would only indirectly do that by placing a ridge in a favorable location in Asia to way downstream effect North America but there is way more that can disrupt that between there and here. I wonder if we only looked at MJO forcing near the dateline if it would have a higher correlation (similar to the MC forcing) than when we include all cold phases, some of which are from the Indian Ocean forcing. Maybe someone out there knows, I've not seen any study on this. I am not saying I think that will have much bearing on our outcome. There is a more favorable SST to IO forcing vs Dateline. Unfortunately the waters near the dateline in the PAC are cooling...not what we want. But I think there are enough signs the atlantic wants to help that if we can just get the MJO out of the "killing us" phases, even if its the less favorable IO forcing it would be enough. At least I hope.

It's not right/wrong...shift the ridge into an EPO ridge WITH AO blocking and that is a very good look. I was just pointing out that the comps to this pattern say that is NOT the most likely outcome. Looking at EVERY example of a similar comp pattern NONE went on to get better without blocking. NONE. That isn't a forecast...its just me pointing out that I can't find any examples of a pattern like the one we are in that improved without some help from a -AO/NAO. So I am not holding my breath on that. Secondly...in the examples that did improve, it was way more common that the blocking over the top forced the pac ridge to retrograde (at least in the mid latitudes) not progress. If that ridge did progress into the epo and link up with an AO ridge that is totally fine, just saying the numbers don't support that to be as likely as AO ridging forcing a retrogression in the PAC.

It's what makes you good at what you do though!!!

No 40 would probably made more sense. Or I should have labeled or specified it. My bad.

It wasn’t meant to be 40. I was roughly paralleling DCs Lat. but I did it real quick so it might be a little off. Sorry. The point though is latitude matters more than longitude other than where elevation and water comes into play.

wrt snow climo... if you account for the curvature of the map and line up our general latitude, then account for elevation and bodies of water...you can see that mean snowfall runs mostly parallel to the latitude. Obviously you have to account for the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic and the Rockies and Apps. Plus when I say we are too far south...and people counter with Philly or NYC...they are just as much if not more east than north. If we were NORTH at NYC latitude we would be in central PA NOT NYC. It isnt fair to put us right on the Atlantic Ocean at sea level and then say "see its not that much more snow".

I agree with your sentiments wrt our snowfall climo. I think we remember the times other places get hit and we dont...but tend to forget the times we get snow and they do not...(it does happen) and times we both get screwed together. There is some bias there. But... comparing IAD to Philly isnt really a fair comp though. PHL is at 36' right on the Delaware rive in the coastal plainr. IAD is at 313' west of the fall line. DCA is a better regional comp to PHL. You have to account for elevation and water. A better comp to IAD in the philly area is West Chester which averages 26.5". So there is a bit more difference between DC/PHL/NYC than you are making it seem when you use IAD as a comp to urban locations at sea level in those other two cities. But it's also not as great as some like Mdecoy make it seem.

I agree with this. Some seem to be rooting for progression of the pac ridge...and that would be "better" but almost anything is better. It still wouldn't be a very snowy look unless it were to severely shift and a trough build in the central pac. That is asking a lot, and not much historical support for that drastic a pac pattern flip during one season. Plus...looking at some examples that worked with an epo ridge it took other factors to line up, and even that isnt all that common. 2014 we had a cooperative AO most of the winter. 2015 we got lucky with a displaced TPV in Quebec that suppressed the flow. Without that it wouldn't have worked. 90% of the time an epo ridge with a +NAM state is a good pattern to our NW and mostly a frustrating one here. The last example was the first week of Feb 2017. It looked epic from long range and then turned into cold rain and waves to our north all week. The better way to go if we want legit snow threats is to retrograde the pac ridge with some blocking over the top. Luckily the ensembles, which I trust more than the CFS, are hinting at that direction. That is where I am putting my chips.

Take this for what it’s worth, but history suggests we want regression not progression. First among the years with a period of similar pac ridge +AO regimes it’s very hard to find any that improved dramatically from progression of the pac absent AO or NAO help. There are a scattering of comps that lead to better patterns though from a NAM state flip causing retrogression of the PAC pattern. Get the pac ridge west a little so it stops digging the trough out west as sharp and pumping the eastern ridge. Then with blocking that’s how you can get a broad flat full conus trough. That leads to a wave pattern we can win with. ETA: it’s ok if the pac ridge is building over the top in the epo domain. But it needs to back off in the mid latitudes out of the area just west of the pna domain.

If you look at a snowfall map of the CONUS there is a pretty obvious north south based variance to snowfall. The exception is where elevation and bodies of water influence the distribution. In our local meso climate both exert influence. Because of the warm waters along the coast and the fact we have mountains in our western zones it skews the snowfall gradient SW to NE locally. We also advantage from a dip south in snowfall east of the Apps due to CAD and increased moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. So if you are looking at a meso scale level yes going west within our region helps almost as much as going north. But on a broader scale north is much more important. If you live on the west coast going East helps. I was referencing the broader issue not the meso scale one. Wrt NYC their long term avg is closer to 28”. They had a couple of historically bad decades that skewed their means lower for a while but since it’s been increasing again. 28 v 20 is a fairly significant difference. Plus keep in mind NYC is right on the coast. You go west into North Jersey and get off the waterfront and averages get into the mid 30s quick. Go a little north of NYC and you hit 40! Results between DC/Balt and NYC/Bos are skewed some because they are right on the coast and we are inland. A more accurate comp between their latitude and ours would be to compare NYC to Atlantic City or Cape May!

He would hate it. He might avg about the same and maybe see snow more often but almost all that snow would come 1-3” at a time. Anything other than pure miller A storms coming north up the coast like Jan 2000 would flip to rain absent a rare arctic airmass.