psuhoffman

He would hate it. He might avg about the same and maybe see snow more often but almost all that snow would come 1-3” at a time. Anything other than pure miller A storms coming north up the coast like Jan 2000 would flip to rain absent a rare arctic airmass.

Not going to do them much good. By the time they build up their base the torch will come and obliterate it. Its likely going to be a very rough year for them. By the time we get consistent cold (if we do) its likely too late for them to recover. They might have a good second half but losing the front 1/2 of winter is a killer for them. And in years where it’s crappy early often people turn to other things or go out west and it impacts them later too. Just realistically it’s going to be a bad year for them. It happens. They are used to it. The resorts that do a good job managing their Capitol will survive so long as we don’t get multiple years like that strung together.

This is an oversimplification but as the heat released from the convective waves expand away from the equator (poleward) it is deflected to the right of its path by the coriolis effect. So basically... vs the cold phase convection locations the exact effect of the mjo wave phases change seasonally as the wavelengths and resistance to the heat release changes. But in winter that is the basic effect.

I do a lot better than DC. And I’m not complaining. But I’m not far enough north that I’m not susceptible to snow droughts also. But when it’s good it can get really good. And when the pattern is marginal it can be pretty good here. But the total fail suck fest patters aren’t much better here either. I’m not the frozen tundra or anything.

Draw a line west of the mountains and that’s about how much...and you wouldby like it. You would sacrifice a few small storms from west to east clippers for big totals where CAD saves us from a flip. Our best storms that track south of us have enough easterly wind component that the downslope isn’t an issue. It’s when we’re stuck in a pattern with lows going to our west that it sucks but that pattern wouldn’t be that good anyways.

I work in Baltimore. So I’m well aware. I often see it go from snowcover to nothing once I get into the city. From experience I don’t expect there to ever be much at work.

The climo thing is old. I get frustrated when we go stretches without snow and I get more of it so I don’t blame anyone for the frustration. So simply saying it has sucked is fine. When I go off on someone like Mdecoy or whatever he is going by now, it’s not for being frustrated, it’s for making up BS climo proclamations. It’s ok to feel like it sucks. But it’s not ok to pretend this isn’t normal. Truth is our climo sucks. Every once in a while we get lucky with a year or most recent a string of them when snow comes easy. The other 75% of the time is long stretches of nothingness with an occasional fluke storm or two mixed in if we’re lucky. Our base state is suck. We’re just far enough north that in a rare good pattern where the jet gets suppressed near our longitude we can get into the goods. The rest of the time we’re frustratingly too far south. Close enough to feel screwed when the storms go just north of us.

I thought it was a bad run.

How much did Baltimore city get March 21 2018?

It doesn’t look good but there are ways out. Those years were mostly Nina’s. If the NAM state flips the last week of Jan the mean pattern may look more like the non Nina analogs I posted. The new weeklies are a better look in Feb. not great. But they won’t be right exactly. If they are wrong and the trough is a bit more suppressed with a bit more ridging over the top it becomes a good look. If it’s the other way...not so much. Flip the coin.

Off hour run. Toss it. ...it is ugly though. Undoes all the improvement as goes right back to a neverending shutout look. But like I’ve said the gefs is more prove to run to run shifts. Unless it has multiple runs or the eps heads that way I’m not sweating it.

Like it matters he just tossed out a 12” storm as “barely counting”. Lol

I counted jan 2019....the rest are out of season and I dont remember dec 2017 I think it was Dec 9 2017. I had 6” up here. The cities only had 2” or so but I know not far NW had 3-5”. I think IAD had 4. Maybe it missed lees burg.

We've had one snowstorm since 2016 blizzard....what are you going to smite? Dec 2017, March 2018, Nov 2018, Jan 2019 And here come the reasons they all don’t count lol.

The main reason my team is in the playoffs is that the rest of the division be like...

I actually liked him and corresponded with him semi regularly through emails when I was a meteorology student at Penn State in the late 90's and early 2000's. He was always friendly and helpful with my questions and seemed like a really nice guy. He also seemed to really know his stuff. I still think he knows his stuff...I just think he has an agenda. The last time I messaged him we got into a spat about my local climo and his forecast. He was trying to use Washington's snow average to say my area verified his forecast. And then he refused to believe me that I averaged 40" here. And when I pointed out that DC didnt get what DC averages he got snippy. That was the last private conversation I ever tried to have with him. I will admit he has also said some dumb things about teachers that didn't sit well with me but mostly its just his act got old after a while, and he went off the deep end with everything.

Both the EPS and GEFS have been moving the extent of the pac ridge further north and that is a significant change also. The more it builds over the top the more it helps attack the TPV over the pole and helps press down on the flow over the CONUS. When we were seeing unanimous support for an incredibly anomalous flat central pac ridge north of Hawaii that was really bad. This look not nearly as much. Still not good yet...but not the utter dumpster fire it was.

This is closer to workable than where it was 2 days ago. get that Scandinavia ridge to poke into the NAO domain a little more and it sets off the chain reaction we need. It’s still got a ways to go but we’re seeing progress. I can see an easy way out from that look. The one the other day when the euro spilled a whole blue paint can all over the high latitudes was hard to even see an easy way out. Seeing it back away from a continuation of the raging +NAM state is the best sign.

I missed that...sorry. We went through a long stretch where March snowfall was virtually extinct compared to earlier periods. Lately things have flipped back and the new averages will reflect that. You are correct.

Definitely. What I am most encouraged about is where that might go. The look day 10-15 is still not really great for snow...but that look matches patterns that rolled forward lead to snowier times. Not there quite yet but build that ridging over the top just a little more and suddenly the western energy starts to slide across under us and its game time again.

In fairness to JB (you all know I can't stand him but truth is truth) he admits he was wrong quite a bit. He will spin so that it's "not his fault" with stuff like "I had this or that right but..." but the bigger issue is he is stubborn as all get out and will wait way way way too long to adjust. He is so scared to "flip flop" that he holds onto an outdated idea way too long. There are no points for that... a forecast should always be based on the preponderance of best evidence available. We have to adjust when better evidence, and in weather more recent is almost always better than older guidance/data. As for seasonally.. he will spin a crap look into "not that bad" to try to keep the weenies paying for another month or two...then admit defeat once its well into Feb and apparent his cold/snowy winter idea is toast.

in fairness he admitted his excitement is mostly due to lack of anything else to be excited about

lol I have no change in my forecast until I actually see what falls and then I will adjust/spin accordingly. Until then keep paying your subscription.

Not really... going into this season BWI is averaging exactly 20" over the last 29 years. Their old 30 year average was 20.1 so they are only off by 1/10 of an inch. Even if BWI only gets 5" this season their new 30 year avg would be 19.5" That is only a 0.6" change from the current avg. And that assumes this year is god awful. If BWI makes it to near normal their 30 year avg will remain virtually unchanged.

I suppose a true "cutter" is a storm that bombs out into the lakes...but we have come to call any system that goes to our NW a cutter. And there most definitely can be a track to our NW in a progressive pattern if there is too much ridging along the east coast and no blocking.