psuhoffman

In a Nino we can go on a run fast if things line up.

Nope, can't think of anyone

The Germans are Fing with us

it always does that lol

It depends how things turn after the cutter on the 10th, which we still possibly could start as some frozen if we get lucky with the details. But after that there is a huge difference in how the EPS and GEFS progress the pattern with the GEPS somewhere in the middle. Neither is stacked immediately after although if the EPS is correct I definitely could see us getting some frozen from a progressive boundary wave in the 12-17th time period, although another cutter is possible if something phases and is too amplified. If the GEFS is right almost anything, even a progressive wave will cut well west of us in this time period. After that again depends on which guidance wins out...the EPS slowly shifts the trough southeast under the block as the pacific resumes a more nino look. Eventually by the 18th or so we could be chasing a big storm again. The GEFS on the other hand goes off the rails and the extended goes towards a full nina look and even flips the AO/NAO positive and frankly looks like 2020 and last winter by late January and implies winter is over after this Jan 7 storm. I do not think the GEFS is correct. The EPS matches my expected progression for the season so why would I favor the less accurate guidance that goes against history. But....I still will feel better when it caves! Thought it was in the process of caving yesterday then it reverted to full on disaster. I expect it will cave soon but I will do a shot in relief when that happens.

That was one of the oddest cases of any HECS storm for the mid atlantic. Initially there was a STJ system crossing the 4 corners as a stronger cut off system dove into the Dakotas out of Canada. They phased over the upper midwest and 99% of the time that would have been game over for us except we had maybe the most ridiculous block ever preventing anything from cutting and forced the closed upper low to continue southeastward. It did still have a STJ connection, there was a weak wave down in the gulf with a moisture feed up into the system but the dominant feature was always the NS system that dove due south out of Canada then turned southeast and continued southeast right across VA. I guess I would categorize it as a hybrid but it was as close to a NS miller b as any in that subset. That setup would never work again unless we had that kind of block. Some images from that system

Yes, there is a HUGE difference between a wave coming at us from the southwest tracking into the TN valley before transferring to a coastal and a northern stream SW diving out of the NW that develops a coastal storm.

We want the jet to extend enough to push the ridge back into western N America and establish a trough in the N Pacific. We just don't want it to go crazy like the last one. The reason we might get a relax and a cutter next week is because the jet retracts too much and we end up with nina like pacific forcing for a short time.

It’s sped up about 6 hours in the last 4 runs. this isn’t perfect but these frames are a better comparison when the storm is at a more similar spot in its pass which matters more. The change is noise imo. 18z looks slightly colder but with the 6 hour adjustment now it’s maybe an hour behind 0z so it’s a wash imo. The eps has been holding with only noise changes run to run today.

We want a jet extension just not as strong as the last one.

If it trends north/west I will head out to either Snowshoe, Timberline, or maybe Seven Springs in PA. Wish Blue Knob had lodging anywhere near the mountain, its a decent little spot but impossible to get to in a storm. That was my go to when I was at PSU. Don't sleep on late Jan into Feb regardless of what happens this weekend. I still think our best stretch is after Jan 20th. Jan 20th seems to be a sweet spot in similar years that showed up. 1966, 1987, 2016 all produced big snow around or just after Jan 20th and just about nothing before. I am really starting to like the January 20th on period. The GEFS needs to get a clue but the EPS and GEPS are setting us up nice for the end of January. Fits nino climo also...I know everyone is focused on Feb, and thats possible 1958 and 2010 are in the analogs, but 66, 87, 2016 all had the best stretch the end of January so I'm not ruling that out. IMO the reason Feb looks so much better in the means than Jan on a nino composite is because often the first 1/3 of January is a shit show and skews the pattern look worse than if you just look at Jan 15 on. To be the money period is Jan 20 through Feb. March is a wildcard, 58, 78 were awesome, 2003 but most others faded by then. I am reducing my seasonal total from 4" to 1" because of the depth maps I am not dismissing your concerns. if we do fail this would be the most likely way, BUT the compressed flow between the western trough and the 50/50 make this more favorable than normal. Sometimes regional geographical features can offset the hemispheric ones. Without that compression between those features you're right this would not be much of a threat.

The changes are noise, its virtually the same

You have the best avatar ever A lot of the time the busts on the northern edge of these type storms isn't due to a change in the track but that guidance often underestimates the banding that often sets up near the northern fringes of these storms where the moisture transport banks up against the wall created by the confluence. That added lift combined with the typically higher ratios there often creates a second snowfall maximum that gets missed in forecasts. Happens in many of those type storms.

What made me identify Feb 2010 the other day was a few similarities in the type of storm evolution. The 50/50, western energy, and the trough associated with our storm being anchored pretty far west but a compressed flow between the western energy and the 50/50 causing the STJ energy to partially interact and sling shot up the east side of the trough before hitting the wall and turning east. This setup is similar in all those ways. Feb 2010 had a more ideal block, better time of year in terms of snow climo, and the storm stalled when it hit that wall for about 12 hours which accounted for the prolific totals in N VA and MD. The thing cranked the deform all night when it stalled. This system probably doesn't have that potential because of the less ideal block it probably wont hit the same wall and just stall like that. It's also still not quite as cold overall leading it, it could trend that way its a lot closer than it was a couple days ago...but that worries me some still. I would still like to see a little more wiggle room right now in that regard.

In fairness you're right that in MOST winters if we don't have some snow in and around the DC area by New Years its a really really bad sign. But the one exception is nino's. 1966, 1978, 1987, 2005, 2007, 2015, 2016. They all started as absolute torch god awful seasons then flipped late. Some just become ok, some went on to become awesome, but there is a definite pattern. Even years like 1983 and 1995 that never truly flipped there was at least one big snowstorm in February. Most neutral and nina winters show their dominant long wave patterns by New Years and it is what it is. But Nino's often flip. I remember having this same discussion I think with @mitchnick back in 2015 when things were going pretty awful in January and saying its a modoki nino...I wouldn't call TOD yet, in any other season I would but don't give up on a nino early. I also wonder what impact the warming December will have on being able to identify the flavor of a winter early. December has warmed the most of the "snow" months for us over the last 30 years. This year for example...we had two waves I can think of that took a perfect track for our area to get some snow but the boundary was just 5 degrees too warm. Maybe if those two produce a few inches of snow in the cities it changes the whole discussion and perception of how this year started! Maybe it's becoming harder to predict the winter by the early results because of this.

We had this discussion many times over the years. I hate when it becomes an argument over definitions. I could care less what we call them. The problem is for the "purists" that define any transfer as a miller b, we then HAVE to differentiate between northern stream dominant SW's that transfer and STJ dominant transfer storms. The best definition system I've seen classifies the later as "hybrid" systems. And by that definition system our best storms are almost all hybrids. Pure miller a storms usually are trucking and moving too fast to dump prolific totals. The transfer process actually slows down the system some, plus often when a primary west of the apps transfers its because its blocked to some extent. We also run the risk of being too far west for a pure miller a. They sometimes end of coastal scrapers for our area and nail NYC, especially in a Nina! A primary into the TN valley pretty much guarantees we don't miss out on the party, so long as it transfers in time for us to stay cold enough. Additionally getting the wave to amplify to our SW opens the door to prolific WAA snows before the storm even gets going. Our really big storms are when we get a foot of snow from overrunning before the coastal even gets going. Miller a/b hybrids are actually our best storms. But the people that classify everything as A/B scare the crap out of some when they classify them as miller b and they suddenly think of every NS jump storm that screwed us over and hit New England. I know you know this, we've had this conversation before...but thought it was time to bring it up again for all the new members since the last time we got to actually go over this...since its been so freaking long since we actually got to discuss a legit snow threat in this kind of detail.

It’s already trended colder than 72 hours ago. Plus at this range guidance is often too warm in the boundary layer in the cold sector under heavy precip. It could trend colder. But we’re not really supposed to talk about temps.

Look at number 1

One of those is that little storm in 1997 I referenced a little while ago. lol

Ya those depth maps are good in lighter events but in heavy rates and marginal temps they can be way low. If it snows hard it will accumulate.

I’m not having that debate again.

Tucked

Wave is more amplified and a bit more phasing. My guess is it comes north a bit

Legit snow here now. Big flakes. 34*

I’m in the same boat but I’m also waiting to see how the pattern evolves after the likely cutter. If the eps is right and we get to that look by Jan 15th or so…a lot of the big analog years the majority of the snow fell after Jan 20 anyways. EPS is heading toward having the look we want by then. 66 and 87 had pretty much nothing in the cities before Jan 20. 87 there was a coastal storm that dropped like 6” here and 12 up in PA but was mostly rain in the cities right around the same time as this threat.