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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. NJ gets some inv trough action then the coastal gets going just in time to scrape cape cod.
  2. Nope. NS SW came across as a better latitude for us but the whole thing was more suppressed. No stj interaction and the coastal took too long to get going. It’s not a good run for anyone. Light snow across MD and NJ.
  3. There seems to be less stj interaction though. Don’t love that. But the NS SW was a bit south. I do like that. Next frames will determine.
  4. It needs to amp up quick but everything’s coming in further south this run. So if it can crank at all it could be good.
  5. Sounds like they’re having a hard time coming up with a quality system. Oh well.
  6. The euro and icon are kinda in between with a wider more uniform distribution from the initial frontal banding because it shifts north then no real coastal enhancement. That would be acceptable.
  7. It’s best to ignore the NAM. Actually the totals further south seem safer. It’s all from the initial band. Further north it’s a combo of getting fringed by wave 1 and 2. That’s the kinda stuff that’s risky. NW of 95 has more upside but also more bust potential is the initial band sets up south like non NAM guidance and then the coastal doesn’t get going in time. Would leave places NW dry.
  8. Anyone know what that RRFS experimental thing is? Hopefully is sucks because it’s the only thing that has looked consistently awful for our area.
  9. Why aren’t there more examples of those patterns leading to 30”+ winters here than?
  10. Yea I think so. A few days out models had some 20” runs for DC. Then it became more NS dominant. Guidance is picking up on that now instead of teasing us with some early stj dominant solutions.
  11. This kinda reminds me of Jan 05. That sucked because we fooled ourselves into expecting 1-2 feet a couple days out. But maybe if we know going in our ceiling is probably 2-6 south to north it won’t be as annoying.
  12. It’s south. That’s the most important thing imo right now. We can root for a slight amp up trend later. I’d rather need that than need to get it south.
  13. I’m only to 120 but I think I like it a lot more than 0z
  14. Plus if the SW can survive at all it has a chance to amp once it gets close to us as the trough splits and amplifies over us.
  15. Well it seems south but…WAY weaker lol. I was thinking slightly weaker not totally squashed. But I’d still prefer this than amped north of us. We’ve seen things amp up some at the end. We almost never see a NS wave trend south at the very end.
  16. TPV press could keep it under us at least. We need two kinds contradictory things. More amped but also a further south track of the SW. For now south is more important imo. We can get it juiced up a bit later. But if we go into the home stretch with the NS SW too far north it’s probably game over.
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