psuhoffman

When I lived in Herndon we used to visit my cousins in Harper's Ferry a lot, and I picked up shifts often at the TGI Fridays in Leesburg, the difference in winters that were actually colder (obviously years when there is no snow anywhere don’t matter) was huge between Herndon and Leesburg. I know I’m 1994 Leesburg had snow over almost the whole winter when we had none. They kept getting 2-4” of snow when we just got ice every storm!

Depends if you’re grading on a curve. You probably do avg close to 40” in moderate to strong -QBO winters.

Let’s let the rest of winter play out. I’m speculating of course. Even if we get a ton of snow I don’t think it negates the idea our snow climo is degrading but it at least means a Nino still works and we can still get a big season from time to time. But maybe we go on some 1958 or 1964 mid Feb to Mid March heater and all this talk is forgotten..until next year at least.

If this works maybe I can get out of the dog house for a few days. Until the next time I post historical data that’s depressing.

Don’t go there. People are bent enough when things look bad. They don’t need you poking the bear.

A 50 is way better than a 0 but still an F

In fairness it’s been unimpressive with snow almost everyday despite a great pattern. I’ve noticed it. It’s slightly concerning. Slightly yes but with taking note. We are about to end a 25 day period with a mean pattern that matches the mid Atlantic’s best snow patterns. But the heavy snow axis was actually from Milwaukee WI to Vermont! And guess what the long range guidance kinda nailed that. Remember Ji complaining the snow means looked low? They were right. The majority of the snow didn’t hit where we expected given the pattern. It was displaced north. Now the snow means are kind of saying the same for the next go around. We will see. But if we get two periods with a perfect mid Atlantic snow pattern but the snow hits 200 miles north of us that’s kinda troubling, and enlightening. We would have the answer though. Just not the one we want.

You still reading him? I saw some posts of his you tagged last month. Took me like 3 tweets to realize he was ignore worthy.

I like Pizza

Who cares what we say in a dead thread anyways?

Wow a whole .2 QPF. How the bar has fallen lol.

This is a dead thread. There is a new storm thread. We’re just Fing around in here now.

Some dude on twitter = half the people

Sorry thought I saw a post about being in the same neighborhood. But now I don't see it, maybe it was to someone else, or maybe it never existed and I've finally lost my mind.

Could be why the 12z GEFS suddenly flips the NAO negative at the very end! We have to see if that trend continues.

I really do think we get another 20-30 day period that is favorable for snow. And Feb into March isnt too late to pull a save. But I am more discouraged than hopeful right now because of this... We already somewhat wasted this The problem hasn't been that the pattern never got to where I expected this winter. That actually wouldn't bother me as much. But the problem has been it did and it just didn't do us nearly as much good wrt snowfall as I thought it would so far. By the time the pattern above breaks down we would have had a solid 4 weeks of a very favorable longwave pattern. Now some will start to couch it with...yea but the first 15 days don't count because we had a torch before it. Well isn't that part of the problem I've been screaming about. If every bad pattern torches us so bad we need weeks to recover...aren't we kinda screwed in the bigger picture? The more hopeful take would be the next cycle of this pattern, and I do think we get another bite of that apple this winter...maybe it goes better because we are less likely for all of N AMerica to be completely torched because it will be later in the season. So maybe we don't waste weeks and a couple perfect track waves just waiting to get colder. But man we only get so many periods like this in a decade, not a winter but a decade. We wasted a similarly great pattern in 2021 imo. When we start wasting them with very little to show wrt snowfall...well that is more depressing to me than when we simply get a crap pattern all winter.

If it speeds up it certainly would change our prospects for early Feb. There is a correlation with the MJO moving through 7 and the NAO tanking. I don't think that its a coincidence that as guidance started to stall the wave in 6 or barely into 7 that was when the delay in getter the NAO to flip started to show up. But maybe the pattern progression was being rushed before.

That is related to what I said in my post above...and why the pattern suddenly took a turn for the worse on guidance early Feb. The wave stalls and on some guidance does a loop in 6/7 before resuming. That delays the pattern progression by like a week.

I put something out there a while ago and no one answered.... let's say we do finish this winter below avg snowfall... gun to your heads how many years would you predict go by before a season where IAD, BWI, and DCA all record 20" of snow in a season? LOL

I haven't tried one of these in a while.

Snow on snow, lets do this

When I said we are now south of the "reliably snows in winter" line... obviously that line moves year to year and pattern to pattern. But the best way to explain is this... it used to be that in crappy warm winters we were south of the "snows reliably in winter" line and had to luck into a fluke event. But in colder winters we were north of the "snows reliably" in winter line and it would snow pretty regularly through the winter. Now... when its warm OMFG forget even getting lucky its no hope anywhere within 500 miles of us. Then when we get a good pattern even...we still seem to be south of that line and needing a LOT of luck and trying to get the fluke storms that sometimes end up south of the line. We are 100% getting the results I would expect if we lived in like Greensboro NC the last 8 years or so. The only question is does that continue.

I've noted for a while...even when we get runs with a really good pattern...when I go look at the snowfall the mean indicates the snow is much further north than I expect given the pattern.

The only good thing is this might prove to @Stormchaserchuck1 that a +NAO isnt the answer. In that case the +NAO is wrecking an otherwise good pacific. We need BOTH!

I do not think Feb 1-10 will be a no hope torch. But, the pattern progression is being delayed by the slow down of the Pacific forcing migrating east. It's stalling in the western pacific for about a week. This is leaving us in kind of a blah pattern in early February. I could see an STJ wave cutting under and enough cold around with that PNA ridge to get something to work if we're lucky. But the PNA ridge looks rather modest now, and the +++NAO is likely going to make it difficult to be cold enough until we get the more ideal pacific, and its likely a moot point anyways because once the wave starts to progress into the central pacific it kick starts the process of tanking the NAO again anyways. We're likely looking at Feb 10-15th or so before the pattern gets REALLY good again. I know this is not what anyone wants to hear, patience isn't the best virtue of some here, but Mid Feb is NOT too late to pull out a good finish. 1958 really got going mid Feb. And before someone says but its warmer now...2015 got going mid Feb too and that was not that long ago. You know I will lean on warming when I think its a part of the equation, but Feb and March are being affected by warming way less that earlier in winter...assuming the waters ever do cool...right now places in the tropical Atlantic are running normal temps for July FFS.