psuhoffman

Some are blaming the jet extension but imo the NAO going super positive for weeks was where it went sideways and wasn’t something I expected. We still have time if the pattern change on the gefs and eps ext don’t get can kicked but punting our 3 snowiest weeks of the year wasn’t in my playbook for this winter!

yea, wish the weather was as predictable as the Cowboys in the playoffs!

They were asking me to shove this vort south for them so some must think so.

There is nothing to analyze in here right now except wild speculation about what things might evolve towards out near mid February. The pattern is pretty much shut the blinds for a while. Yes my post was somewhat trolling, but there was a legit point in there that its going to be so warm, at least it looks like now, that even if we did get lucky with a perfect synoptic setup within the larger pattern it wouldn't do us any good. That is a TRUE shut the blinds pattern. As for the elephant stuff, I'm not trying to start that argument again. But I don't think its totally true that in the past we had a lot of patterns where the whole CONUS was so torched that there was absolutely no hope of snow no matter what the storm track or amplitude of a wave was. I saw plenty of "how in the world did we get 5" of snow in THAT" kinda storms when I did my case study of every Baltimore snowstorm. I think there was a time when we could luck our way into a snowstorm even in a bad pattern once in a while if we got a perfect track wave, but that was when warm periods were warm not scorched earth torches. 1998 was the best example of that kind of thing...but there is a matter of degrees...all those perfect track rainstorms in 1998 had some snow mixed in not too far NW of the cities. My area got 20" that year from like 2-4" of slop in each of those. And some higher elevations in WV got absolutely buried in every one of those. Lately its all rain even in some of those places. We aren't even getting all that close to snow even in a perfect track lately when the pattern is bad. Some people don't agree with me on this. And that is fine. It is what it is and our opinions don't matter anyways.

The pattern should get good again, just in time for me to return from Seattle on the 10th.

RAIN lol Shame we can't get a perfect track like this during prime climo...

SHHH they think fringed isn't a real thing. But in the long run we will do better. I had a nice event in Dec that most missed. But my big advantage is in marginal temp storms, not setups like this. You win some you lose some, but yea its been a rough couple of years up here. 2022 was actually decent down south but up here it was way below avg. Hope people remember this when I get some 12" wet snow bomb in March that is mostly rain in DC and they don't come up here with pitchforks.

Actually I'm getting nervous about that... I was kinda holding out hope this next round might be decent up here but its starting to look like the next band wants to set up right where the last one did.

I'm in the same boat. Ill probably be SLIGHTLY above climo for this date by the end of today...but by the time we get to our next window of opportunity, if the next 2-3 weeks go the way I currently think, I will be WAY behind again.

They are, but if they go the next couple weeks with no snow they will be back to below again lol

Congrats to everyone to the south today!

Still only light snow up here. Seems like the heavy bands are struggling to get north of Westminster so far.

if you're worried maybe I should be worried, but it's really just the HRRR that keeps the banding south of us. I haven't seen anything else look troubling for us.

3k too

Not much to show but…

I think it has that 3-5" area correct...but nothing will correctly place the little 5" max areas ahead of time within that zone. That will come down to luck with meso scale features.

It’s a 200 hour op run. I was just teasing him.

1980

Repeat of PD2 but with 20 years of warming

Yes it affects us way more early in the season. That’s why Dec is warming the most and snow before Jan in DC becoming rare. Doesn’t mean it’s not affecting later at all but much less.

My sister went to college there

@Terpeast @MillvilleWx @WxUSAF Is that a gravity wave that crosses DC around 18z on the 3knam or just instability as the vort passes south? sorry I can’t dig into it, stuck in a meeting

28/13 I like where we are. I know this isn’t a hecs but I hope y’all appreciate how rare it is to get a NS dominant system to flush hit any part of our sub. Nice to know a Nino/block still works at least to some degree. Hopefully if we get one more go at a really favorable pattern later we can try this with a more juiced up wave!

Look since y’all was too lazy I got up here on top of Mt PSU and blew that damn vort south for ya. Even started a thread just to make sure it knew. Now ya want CSI banding. What’s next thunder snow? Jeesh