psuhoffman

Probabilities are in his favor. The gfs progression has no support from the ggem or euro. They are way less amplified with the trough. Plus more than half the gfs members and op runs recently that do have a storm it’s just a perfect track rainstorm. So when you add it all up the chances of snow is low. But it’s all we have to track so it’s being talked about.

So far no can kick. Guidance the last 48 hours has slightly sped up the pattern progression by a day or two.

The extended guidance starts the transition around Feb 7. We have a transitional week to get to good from there. But we should start to see that process at the end of the ensembles within the next 72 hours. I’d not I’ll start to get a little nervous about a can kick which we can’t afford given the clock.

I think the guidance actually targeted this week from way way out. There was a torch in front of it which was never as bad as they indicated but we did get the 2 cutters.

http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu you can waste a lot of time in there.

There was another event very late march 2014 where a deform at the end of a rainstorm flipped to snow. Dropped 8” here!

He was talking about getting a HECS. He is right. The odds go way down after about Feb 20 in Baltimore of a 12”+ storm. And they’ve only had a few warning criteria march snows the last 30 years. That is rare.

Don’t you live over 1000 feet? He lives in Baltimore.

Baltimore has had more than 10” in March 18 times. But…only 3 in the last 63 years! It happened 15 times in 68 years before that. But hey according to some on here that’s totally a coincidence and our snow climo is just cyclical not declining. So by that logic we are super super due!

Actually the very end of the gfs was only a few days from a better pattern. It was evolving the way we want at the end. The first week of Feb is likely toast. Accept it. If we can get out by Feb 10 it’s a win. Gfs was heading that way.

Tell Stormy

Fair enough

Bait

You can do both. I haven’t complained one bit about the snow I got this week. I’ve had a great time with the kids. But I can shade a bigger storm also. I fail to see the conflict.

Go Ravens. Who Id like to see win the SB 1) ravens 2)Bills 3)Detroit 4) anyone but the 49ers!

Between both storms it was enough to finally do this

I don’t like the methodology behind that chart. It used way too many locations. And there is mention of the correlation value just the mean. The mean can be skewed by a huge storm somewhere.

As long as one of those small march events for you is my annual 10” wet snow bomb up here I’ll take it.

For those tracking we have a short window as the pna ridge first goes up before it spreads east to maybe sneak in a threat. Around the 30-31. After that the eps days the pattern flips back favorable around Feb 10-12. Gefs more like 15-18. Keep in mind I’m talking about the long wave pattern. If the continent gets torched and we need 2-3 weeks to build cold again after the pattern changes…well the the clock starts to become a problem! Let’s hope later in winter we can work with the crap air mass left behind or cold can build south faster!

@CAPE you’ve done a great job explaining I just wanted to add visual to what you’re saying. look at these two weeks on the gefs ext. what’s the difference? week 3 Week 5 The pacific configuration is similar. Actually the jet is more extended week 5! What! But how….because the nao flipped which changes the downstream reaction to the same pacific pattern. Like Cape said there are so many moving parts. But to generalize central and east based Ninos the jet will be extended a lot. But that works provided the nao is negative. 1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 all had epic periods kick started by a jet extension. True west based Modoki ninos can roll without blocking because the jet extensions are rather tame and can set up a more western leaning pac trough which in turn leads to a perfect epo pna ridge and we can roll without any nao help. Years like 2003 and 2015 fell in this category. But that was never the gameplan this year. We need nao help. The sudden and drastic flip in the nao is what turned things on its head.

There may be a transient window of opportunity as the pac get begins to extend and a pna epo ridge goes up. It’s possible we sneak something in. Problem is after that the pattern compromise to progress and shift the ridge east and with a raging pos nao there is nothing to resist the warmth from coming across the whole continent. If we had a -nao it might force the pac jet to cut under and we would be ok for that same pacific look is hostile with a pos nao, The pna ridge just spreads out into a full conus ridge.

Jet extensions have been the loading pattern for most of our epic Nino snowstravaganzas.

Some are blaming the jet extension but imo the NAO going super positive for weeks was where it went sideways and wasn’t something I expected. We still have time if the pattern change on the gefs and eps ext don’t get can kicked but punting our 3 snowiest weeks of the year wasn’t in my playbook for this winter!

yea, wish the weather was as predictable as the Cowboys in the playoffs!

They were asking me to shove this vort south for them so some must think so.