psuhoffman

I’m north of that line, I would never give up if I lived near DC. Even up here maybe... but the system isn’t amplifying so it’s going to slide almost due east so the changes I would need to get heavy snow up to the pa line would have to gone soon...early on out west. I’m feeling he’s unlikely to be significant up here.

That is your official American model in a month!!! RESPECT

Yea I don’t mind nickel and dime stuff during the heart of winter but once we get past Feb 20 I’m 100% big game hunting.

It’s a disappointment for sure. This period had major potential. But the details seem to be going all wrong. Still time to recover maybe but I’m not feeling it. I guess now it’s hope for a March bomb.

Look at how everything went into the toilet from 12z to 0z and people wonder why I am so negative. Eps mean snow went from 10 a few days ago to the default 3-4 lol The look the next 6 days started degrading 3 days ago and has continued steadily imo since. The fail scenario I teased maestro with was actually what I expected. From range details don’t matter. As the threats all came into medium range the warts showed up. The first wave is weak and not spaced well to amplify. Without an amped wave 1 wave 2 would be a problem. And the trend towards more ridging and a more hostile thermal profile next week started 3 days ago and without the bombing storm this weekend I didn’t see a mechanism to stop that. Ive tried to keep it to myself since some runs still looked good and I didn’t want to deb. Maybe I was just being a worry wart. But now that everything went to total crap and looks like my fail scenario what’s the point. Lol.

Ugh

Hey @Maestrobjwa remember my scenario. Go loop the fv3!!!

I have a feeling about this one

Yep went well. Thanks. I posted about it yesterday. Getting there was an adventure. He is doing good.

So you are somehow going to get good rates without thick cloud cover to mute radiation? You’re specific problem is downaloping. That will make rates lighter and cloud over thinner which makes you more susceptible to radiation issues. I’ve lived in a valley shadow effect area before in PA I know what it’s like. But that’s a local problem.

It feels like they are meeting in the middle. Gefs backing off blocking and shifting the trough north once it shifts east. Eps backing off getting stuck west. The look can work. Slight adjustment and it’s good. My only fear would be if the war pops back up then we would just be right back where we were weeks ago where any major amplified storm would cut.

There was a subtle uptick in hits day 9 after 0z had unanimous support for a cutter there. Not much signal yet but a noticeable trend away from the abyss.

Lol I never feel comfortable until I’m measuring

lol you're right verbatim its probably mix...but I bet more sleet than frz rain at those rates. Actually if we actually got that much precip...like .75 in a very short period... I am just adding my "interpretation" that it would be mostly snow. We see that all the time...the thump snow, my area got that in November, that kind of heavy precip will almost always flip the coin onto the cold side in marginal situations like that.

Those precip type plots use the average temperature over the period to estimate precip type, but if during the heavy thump temps are isothermal and just cold enough, which is what those maps hint at to me, it would be a mostly heavy snow thump to lighter freezing rain. There was a storm in Feb 2007 with a similar temp/precip profile and I think the same happened. It was warmer at the surface so I don't think heavy freezing rain was the concern but people didnt expect a big thump of snow but the heavy precip along the temperature boundary created enough cooling to keep the area mostly snow until the heavy precip moved out. I could be wrong but that was the look imo.

Hard to say without in between panels...but this is what I was seeing, and this is silly at this range but let's pretend its 6 hours away. That was all snow...its close but the algorithm using temps at the end of the 6 hour period estimated snow, probably an isothermal profile. But look at the way the cooling at 850 stretches back to the SW, and when you look at the precip pattern on the next plot it looks like that is mirroring where the heavy precip is. This is the kind of signature to me that indicates a thump where the heavy precip keeps the column cool and then as it ends we transition to ice. The precip on this next panel indicates that towards the end of that 6 hour period the precip was pretty much over, just some spotty light precip around. And the 850 line only moved to just north of the PA line...it could easily jump up there in a couple hours once heavy precip moves out. Also...the heavy precip will be where the best cooling is and usually sets up along the WAA...once the WAA wins the precip shuts off..you almost never see that heavy area of precip SOUTH of the rain/snow line in this setup. It's almost always just north and then you get the changeover and lighter precip. So somewhere in that second panel during the really heavy thump of precip it changes over...but my guess from the limited evidence is that wont happen during the heaviest precip...that as the precip moves out the temps will warm, but such an extreme thump as that woulid keep the column cool enough for a snow/sleet mix at least...and not freezing rain IMO until later. Of course this is crazy for such range, and if you remove the extreme thump then all bets are off...but if the area does get that much precip in such a short time...near the boundary, its probably mostly snow/sleet, and less freezing rain.

Ummmm its not really that much ice... at least not in the DC area. By the time the mid levels warm the heavy precip is moving out.

I lost one of my big pine trees last night

It's pretty much all thump... 850's hanging on then lift as soon as best precip is gone...its a classic 6-8 hour thump to drizzle/freezing drizzle type thing. Bullzeyes DC this run with that feature, I get fringed by both lol

A lot of the snow for the northern 1/2 of our area Sunday is a false signal from the typical "36 degree fake snow" from a cutter solution. Just a warning.

Dude, get a grip

I was just kidding...kinda. I don't have any idea how these go, way too many moving parts. But what I just said is the legit fail scenario!

That model predicts snow everytime Ji farts

yes, but its not out of the question to expect a compromise between the more amplified GFS/CFS camp and the euro. The CMC is kind of in the middle...even if the compromise is 70/30 towards the euro that would still be a good look...just get that wave out of the COD into decent amplitude.

I kind of like the way the GFS is heading...its losing the "big storm" potential but evolving towards a way we can score a simple moderate snow. I am totally fine with that. But need to see euro go that way.