wthrmn654
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Everything posted by wthrmn654
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Just looking at 90 frames satellite view, it's starting to get that counter clockwise spin going and last few frames is deft got some explosion going on near it's estimated center which maybe getting over water now.
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Recons up behind the storm.. mission: "survey"
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At 18z center is prog to be nearly over water south ish of I think that's Cuba.
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Anyone notice that 2nd storm chugging is way into the gulf on the gfs for next weekend? Where the heck did that come from
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The gefs followed the op fairly well with heavy rain from Florida all the way to coastal main.
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It's coming down to timing... if it is meandering and moving really slow, allows the front to grab it before coming to the north east areas... if it moves a little faster and beats the front, looks like it has a better chance of staying closer to coast from Virginia north. EDIT: I meant north Carolina not Virginia..I need to refresh my memory on states again apparently..
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Well 12z gfs kinda got rid of all meandering.. goes across Florida, moves slowly on Atlantic side, looks like it touches no one really, other then Florida, but now has its sites on a long Island hit now. EDIT: VERY CLOSE BY NO DIRECT HIT STARTS GOING NORTH EAST NEXT FRAME OR 2.
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It's the red headed step child of a model sometimes. It tries it hardest
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Finally had a mintue to look at some of the stuff, I will say looking at trends the gfs and euro both have trended closer to the north east past few runs.. still long way aways with lots possibly to change but a compromise between the slightly inland euro and the near the bench mark gfs ops runs seems plausible. Edit: in regards to us northerners
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about 90 today but no rain. though got 1.15 inches yesterday so that was quite helpful.
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its my day off you wont be getting much of anything after today.
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A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Friday, if necessary.
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there is a chance it threads the needle and misses all land between now and the gulf.... it looks to be going north based on the plots so far..
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We have seen loop dee loops before.. Matthew a few years ago I think did that and it wondered around for a week
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some of the hurricane models now have it hitting Florida, impressive run to run shift to the other models... but there in the 980mbs.. range so not weak per say...
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here was the 12z ensembles for gfs euro and cmc shows the general track idea.. looking at the hurricane models forecast versus actual track... the hurricane models all started north of land so there way off course...
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