wthrmn654
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Everything posted by wthrmn654
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boy Ernesto is struggling nonstop it looks like the dry air has been able to go nearly all the way around the storm itself. with no end in sight, visually speaking in terms of satellite views...
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It does not look very pretty on satellite
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5 am update While the shear near Ernesto remains low, a large dry slot continues to wrap near the core, preventing anything other than slow intensification so far. Most of the guidance gradually intensifies the system during the next day or so as the very warm waters and light-to-moderate shear outweigh the effects of the dry air. Little change was made to the intensity forecast,
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Oh man, that dry air really got wrapped around the southern side, just looking at the latest loop.
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Recon finished, only did 2 passes, and 2nd pass pressure was up to 983.
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Alright then, back to tracking.
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Looking at the recon, when they tag the drops as max wind band, are they referring to surface level winds?
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If not, moderators will likely step in. He's not learning and clearly thinks it's a joke.... sadly.
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Oh I'm on mobile, I found how to manually add names thrive the account area.. thanks!
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Pssst...Where's the ignore button ?
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Seriously please stop. We are begging you.
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Your a category 9 hurricane on the intensity level... My gosh
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I forgot about that button, time to press ignore myself. Lol
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Speed was slower and it had 0 dry air or shear top contend with.
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You
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Yes, the big caveat here is that just like operationals often times underperforming with TC intensity, as is their inherent design (not a flaw), TC models often times overperform. There are always caveats and to err on the side of caution. Nothing beats in situ data. We'll need recon to verify if Ernesto is definitely going to start any rapid deepening tonight or obviously a substantial increase in ADT. We don't even have a clear eye yet, though that is probably coming. 8 pm shows 80mph winds.
