wthrmn654

I've never seen a worse winter season where models have not been in better agreement sooner to the event like 12hrs or less. Majority of the storms have been horrible to forecast...

That I can agree with 1000000% being in orient point lol

Why can't you multiquote! WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY

I feel bad for the person who wrote that, if it was in fact a person lmfao

What a whacky forecast they made for my zone.. Thursday Night Snow and sleet before 4am, then sleet between 4am and 5am, then snow and sleet after 5am. Low around 31. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. East wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Friday Rain and sleet before 4pm, then a chance of rain between 4pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. High near 38. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 23 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Night A chance of rain and snow before 9pm, then a slight chance of snow between 9pm and 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Still think precipitation will develop across the region from southwest to northeast Thursday night, mainly after midnight. Strong warm advection ahead of the system is going to pump warm and moist air up and over the colder and drier air that will be in place from the high to the north. How quickly a warm nose develops between about 850 mb and 700 mb will ultimately determine precipitation types and amounts across the region. The GFS and ECMWF are colder than the NAM and NAM3km at the onset, leading to a bit more snow before any changeover. Do not want to completely discount a colder solution, but there is increasing concerns that the global models are underestimating the strength of the warm nose. The NAM in the past has done a good job at picking up on warm noses as well as the speed and intensity of them. The latest forecast includes a bit more of the NAM solution as well as the HREF, but still gives some potential for the colder profiles to hold on a bit longer into early Friday morning. A brief period of snow is expected across the NYC metro and Long Island before a transition to sleet and then freezing rain and/or rain. Any freezing rain looks brief as increasing easterly flow should help boost surface temperatures above freezing around or during the morning commute changing the precip to plain rain. Further inland becomes a bit more problematic regarding PTYPE. Snow should also quickly develop north and west of the NYC metro early Friday morning. If warming aloft is not as aggressive, there could be several hours of snow across interior NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and interior southern CT. However, if the warm nose is quick to move overhead, then snow will transition to a mixture of snow and sleet or predominately sleet quicker around or during the morning commute. The coastal CT area may also begin as a period of snow before transitioning to sleet and then some freezing rain and/or rain during the morning commute. The other uncertainty is whether or not the surface flow from the secondary flow helps keep surface temperature at or below freezing later Friday morning, which would bring freezing rain away from the immediate coast

They're down several inches

Ice amounts went up, snow amounts went down for areas.

But being how the years been wacky up to now, it could be a possible outcome though very very low.

Upton will be lowering totals if my zone forecast is a hint at what there to say shortly

Guess we'll just have to look outside at this point Friday lol

Obviously that's not the entire picture either.

Don't forget per how the radar is being depicted, looks like when it shows its going snow, it's pretty hard which could add up quickly. That's probably the only way I see how that matches. 12z radar depiction has snow still falling for long Island jfk north, 15z mixing shows up. Total precip amounts up to 15z is about 0.60+ area wide 12z is about 0.40+/-

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/field_definitions/get_field_definition.html?doc=Snowfall.pdf

They have an entire 2 page explanation on how they come up with amounts.

I'm not sure I clicked it exactly but it's close to it at 6z. The run you posted versus the one I posted look a bit different.

INCLUDES SLEET

Ignore what I posted that was blooper from 00z lol

64 out here in the east end highest to date for the year, beating out 58 2 weeks ago

If this comes in hot and heavy with a couple hours of heavy snow it could leave a little on the ground. My zone forecast says snow maybe heavy at times, so that would make sense with that idea.

Just need a 1 or 2 week stretch of dry weather so we can install the replacement outdoor exercise station. So annoying it staying so wet.

6z euro warmed in the 850 levels at 15z versus 00z run at 18z is about 1° warmer as well overall. For that matter seems 6z warmed a little for a bunch models.

Going be a fun storm lol