wthrmn654

You work for sanitation dept now?

Post holiday restocking of shelves and cupboards in people's houses or even new years prep likely lol

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-------- FXUS61 KOKX 251934 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 234 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves offshore through this evening. High pressure briefly returns tonight into Friday. A winter storm impacts the area late Friday into Saturday morning. A strong frontal system impacts the area late Sunday through Tuesday, with a weaker system moving through Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: * A cold front moves offshore through this evening * Much colder air moves into the region with high pressure building down from southeast Canada. Mild and breezy conditions for the rest of the afternoon will turn much colder tonight. Arctic air will advect south out of southeast Canada with high pressure building southward. Dew points will lower significantly and should be in the single digits overnight with temperatures bottoming out in the teens inland and lower 20s closer to the coast. Breezy conditions also expected this evening with gusts 25-30 mph, gradually diminishing overnight. Wind chills by early Friday will be in the single digits to lower teens closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... What's Changed: Winter storm watches have been converted to warnings. A winter storm warning has been issued for eastern Suffolk and New Haven counties and a winter weather advisory has been issued for Middlesex county. Key Messages: * A winter storm will impact the area late Friday through Saturday morning. * The heaviest snow is expected to occur Friday evening (after 4 pm through about 1 am Saturday with lighter snowfall rates early Saturday. Travel will be impacted Friday evening into early Saturday morning. * Snowfall accumulations range from 4 to 8 inches in much of the warning area, 3 to 5 inches in the Advisory, and 1 to 3 just outside the Advisory in New London county. Global models and their associated ensemble systems continue to highlight a quick moving shortwave rounding a strong upper ridge centered over the central plains, approaching the local area from the northwest Friday afternoon. At the surface, a cold high pressure centered over Quebec heads to the east as a surface low traverses the OH Valley, through PA and generally south of the local forecast area by 12Z Saturday. This will allow for a cold and dry arctic airmass to remain in place at the start as the shortwave and sfc low pressure approach Friday afternoon. The modeling has shown slight adjustments over the last 24 hours, but the main message has remained consistent that strong frontogenesis and lift with couple with the left exit region of an upper jet streak to bring in widespread snow across the area late Friday through early Saturday morning. There has been some concern with the warm advection aloft, around H7, bringing in a a chance of sleet mixing in with the snow. This concern was indicated by the NAM, but the 12z has backed off somewhat and trended back south and west. Most of the rest of the guidance suite continues to be in good agreement with keeping any mixing out of the area. Warm advection does tend to come in a bit stronger than modeled, so felt it was warranted to introduce a slight chance of sleet for portions of NE NJ Friday night. This does not change the message and is currently not expected to impact snow accumulations. The majority of the significant snowfall accumulation will occur Friday evening and the first half of the night when the strongest thermal forcing (FGEN), middle level omega, and large scale synoptic lift coincide. These ingredients will lead to a band of heavy snow. Where this band sets up is still a bit uncertain, but guidance has largely been hinting at somewhere from the NYC metro through western Long Island and southwest Connecticut. The heavy snow band will gradually subside overnight as the lift weakens and saturation aloft begins to wane. Light snow accumulation is still expected through early Saturday morning, although the rates will likely be much lower. The event has come into the scope of the higher resolution models and they differ on the placement of the banding. However, they show the potential of this event well. The 12z HREF indicates a respectable probability (50-70%) of greater than 1 inch per hour rates beginning around 6-7pm from NYC metro on NW and then shifting south and east through 11pm. The 12z HREF also has probabilities of greater than 2 inch per hours of around 20-40 percent in the vicinity of the NYC metro, western Long Island, into the Lower Hudson Valley. This leads to growing confidence in heavy snowfall rates for several hours after sunset into the first part of the night as the heavy band moves across the region. While there is still uncertainty in the placement of the banding, there is enough confidence to upgrade the winter storm watch to a warning. We have also added New Haven and eastern Suffolk into the warning as guidance has trended towards heavier snow potential a bit further east. It should be noted that the eastern portions of the north and south fork will likely not reach warning criteria, but enough of the western half of the zone could easily see the 6 inch criteria met. Snowfall Accumulations: Forecast accumulations over the last 24 hours have not changed much with just minor adjustments and a slight shift eastward with the 6 inch amounts. Overall, 4 to 8 inches are forecast in the warning (average of 6 inches) with the exception of the forks of Long Island likely coming in lower. In the Advisory in Middlesex county, 3 to 5 inches forecast with 2 to 4 in New London. A reasonable worse case scenario in the warning area continues to be about 8-10 inches and around 6 outside the warning. The higher amounts are possible if banding were to put down a bit more snow or linger longer over specific areas than currently anticipated. If the forecast verifies, Central Park will receive its first snowfall of greater than 4 inches since January 2022. In the January 28-29, 2022 storm 8.3 inches was observed. Snowfall rates: Peak rates of 1-2 inch per hour are expected in heavier snow bands. There is a low chance rates could come briefly exceed 2 inches per hour in heaviest snow in banding, right now this appears isolated. Snow characteristic: There is likely going to be variability with snow ratios throughout the event, but the snow may begin a bit drier and become wetter as the event wears on. The banding potential also complicates this as within the band ratios will likely be high but in areas surrounding the band could be lower. Some light snow or flurries may continue Saturday morning before tapering off by midday. Any additional accumulation after 12z will be insignificant and likely just trace amounts. Clouds may linger into the afternoon, but we should begin seeing some clearing in the afternoon from north. Highs will struggle to rise above freezing, but should briefly get there closer to the coast. Cold temperatures remain in place Saturday night with lows in the teens inland to around 20 near the coast.

If the forecast holds central park may see it's first significant snowfall sinceJanuary 28-29 2022 when 8.3 inches fell

This is updated snow amounts from mount Holly. They haven't updated they're warning details yet.

That says it was updated about 6 am so that's likely not the final#s

That's looks so differentfrom there winter weather page.

Mine says 3-5 while the snow totals for select towns says 4-7 lol

Is that on am app or something?

02-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179-260900- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0004.251226T2100Z-251227T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0003.251226T2100Z-251227T1800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)- Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 119 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

Northeast Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- 119 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches. Highest amounts are expected from near Riverhead on westward. The north and south forks will likely see a sharper gradient with amounts 2 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Northeast Suffolk and Southeast Suffolk Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

Winter storm warning area wide including all long island

It's Christmas fing day! Come on people let's have a little class wait till 12:01 am before critiquing people or giving opinions on people in here.

Long Island totals are over 6 inches now yet still no watch lol

They are saying starts fluffy but gets wetter near end. The snow may initially begin with a higher ratio (drier snow) and then trend to a lower ratio (wetter) as the storm moves across the area. This will be fine tuned over the next day or so as high range guidance comes into range and the event draws closer.

And this is why winter storm watch should of been up area wide.... for the potential...imo. amounts have been getting better ever so slightly eastern areas.

And increase eastern areas

Upton snow maps shifted east with 5 pm updates

If the gfs holds i think watches expand for even eastern of Long Island tomorrow.

44 here today.

Wasn't there a really wonky model run earlier that showed this i forget what it name was.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- What`s Changed: A winter storm watch has been issued for the Lower Hudson Valley, Northeast New Jersey, NYC metro, Nassau, Western Suffolk, and Fairfield County 5pm Friday through 1 pm Saturday. Key Messages: * Confidence in a winter storm impacting the area Friday evening through Saturday morning continues to increase. * Heavy snow is possible Friday night/early Saturday morning. Total accumulation ranges from 4 to 8 inches in the watch area and 2 to 5 inches east of the watch in SE CT and east end of Long Island. Guidance continues to come into agreement on a winter storm moving across the region Friday evening into Saturday morning. A fast moving shortwave and associated middle level energy will traverse around the periphery of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the central states. Ahead of the system, arctic air will advect southward over the northeast Thursday night as high pressure settles over Quebec and ridges down into the area. This high slows down due to blocking over the North Atlantic, which allows the cold air to lock into place over the area through Saturday. Low pressure associated with the aforementioned shortwave energy will approach late Friday and pass across the Middle Atlantic Friday night into Saturday morning. The low should then move further offshore Saturday afternoon. With arctic air in place on Friday (highs in the upper 20s to around 30, and dew points in the single digits), any precip will have a difficult time reaching the ground. This is especially through the middle of the afternoon. Lift ahead of the system begins to increase and saturation will begin from the mid and upper levels and eventually down to the surface by evening. Snow should begin to reach the surface late afternoon and especially in the evening from around the NYC metro on north and west. Further east, it may take a bit more time to saturate and break through the dry air and surface ridging, with accumulating snow likely here overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Snow, potentially heavy at times, is expected Friday night. Where uncertainty lies is where any heavier bands will set up. We are still just outside the range of the higher resolution modeling. However, there are signals in the global models that hint that heavy banding may set up over portions of the area, especially within the watch. There is an impressive thermal gradient with the arctic air over New England, with milder air further south and west over the Ohio Valley. Mid level frontogenesis (H7) will increase substantially Friday evening and continue through early Saturday morning. The region also lies within the left exit region of the upper jet allowing for larger scale lift to coincide with the middle level lift. Lift should begin to weaken Saturday morning, but there may be some left over light snow across some parts of the area in the morning before ending midday. The region of the strongest lower/middle lift remains in question and may fluctuate a bit over the next several model cycles, but overall the general idea does not change with this upcoming event. Probabilities have increased for a warning level (6" or more of snow) with the latest with the latest WPC WWD and NBM. This has led to an increase in the areal coverage of higher probabilities (around 50%) in the WPC WSO. Based on these trends as well as increasing confidence in evolution of the system, have issued a winter storm watch for all but the east end of Long Island and south central and eastern Long Island. Confidence lowers a bit across Long Island and southern Connecticut, but felt western Suffolk and Fairfield were close enough to warning criteria to include in a watch. There is greater uncertainty further east due to the interaction with the lingering surface ridging/dry air and overall lower liquid equivalents. Snowfall Forecast: 4 to 8 inches possible within the watch area and 2 to 5 inches further east outside of the watch. A reasonable worst case scenario of 8 to 10 inches currents exists within the watch area with potential locations further east could still see warning criteria met. Snowfall rates: Peak rates around 1 inch per hour possible. There is a low chance rates could come close to 2 inches per hour in heavier banding. The snow may initially begin with a higher ratio (drier snow) and then trend to a lower ratio (wetter) as the storm moves across the area. This will be fine tuned over the next day or so as high range guidance comes into range and the event draws closer. There is still some concern with the warm advection aloft Friday night bringing in a mix with sleet late in the event. Some earlier model runs were showing this potential. The latest NBM probability of sleet is very low and trends seem to be leaning towards keeping the precipitation all snow across the area. Models can sometimes underestimate the warm advection aloft. This is something that will need to be watched, especially for parts of northeast NJ and interior Lower Hudson Valley as this is the direction the warm air aloft tries to move in from the west. There are no wind concerns with this event as the pressure gradient is relatively weak. Temperatures Thursday night will bottom out in the teens to lower 20s. Highs on Friday will only be in the upper 20s to around 30. Temperatures during the snow Friday night should be in the mid to upper 20s with highs on Saturday struggling to rise above freezing -- End Changed Discussion --

Michael- Right now, the highest confidence for a warning level snowfall is across the western portions of our forecast area. (west of eastern Long Island). We will continue to monitor data over the next 12-24 hours and see if adjustments to the forecast needs to change. But right now, the best chance for 6+ inches appears to be west of eastern Long Island

Snow maps have gone up too. Old point map versus new range map