wthrmn654

Didn't get as warm as I thought it would today.

Nam slowed down a bit. Nws pointed that out. But it doesn't have any support at this point.

So how well does the nam do in terms of timing say fronts during the summer months?

If I'm not mistaken some models showed a few heat events long term well or so ago then they basically all vanished again.. temperatures are normal to just above normal it seems long term wise.

Does appear the long term discussion was updated later on. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- Friday should be the warmest of the days in the forecast period as the area sits underneath a passing upper level ridge, with H8 temps approaching 19C. This should support high temps reaching at least the lower and mid 90s from NYC north/west and across the interior CT river valley, with 80s elsewhere. Dewpoints will be high enough to take the max heat index into the mid 90s across much of the NYC metro area and especially NE NJ for just one day. With the ridge moving east and presence of a weak lee trough to the west, expect sct showers/tstms to develop over ern PA and move E toward western portions of the area during the late afternoon and early evening, then become more widespread late Fri night into Sat morning with the approach of a cold front, and as heights aloft fall E of the departing ridge and on the S periphery of a deep closed low Ontario and Quebec and centered near James Bay. Sat has some potential for tstms with severe wx and localized flooding given a potentially unstable air mass with steep low level lapse rates ahead of an approaching cold front, bulk 0-6 km shear of 35-40 kt, and PW increasing to near 2 inches. Deep moisture may be pulling out to the S in the afternoon as instability maximizes, which may favor severe wx over flooding or take the main threat just south of the area, but it still too early to know for certain. The front should sink to the south Sat night into Sunday morning, with mainly dry wx returning by Sunday afternoon and lasting into Monday (Independence Day). The front will remain not too far off to the south, with precip chances returning from Mon night into the mid week period as weak disturbances move along it. -- End Changed Discussion --

83 today

Invest in gulf.

There's also a noaa plane flying and dropping stuff near Cuba

Well it could go warmer or it could be a little cooler that's how the years been so far..

Eps and euro don't look too fully area on Mondays temps though I do notice. 80-85 on eps while the euro says 85-92.

Interesting the gefs, other then 88 Friday , has 80-84 near the NYC area for most of next week, with hints of 85-90 the following week. Eps shows eps is now showing 85-90 Thursday and 90-95 Friday nyc area, though it should be noted majority of the southern CT counties all of Long Island, jersey shore area are 5-10 degrees cooler it would appear. It would also be noted that this heat will be accompanied by strong winds, from the south. Saturday has cooled dramatically over several runs days it would appear with a suggest high 80-85 nyc area, cooler north and east. (75-80) Sunday and Monday temps would be 80-85 it looks like. After the 4th to the 14th though, eps isn't showing any 90s at all near nyc area interestingly. 80-85 temperatures mainly, has heat staying confined in the Texas region.

Yes good point. As long as that stands true in this unusual weather patterns though

Though, someone with more knowledge/ info would be great to hear from on the upcoming weekend.

I'd say Fridays hot heat is set in stone, eps, gfs, are iffy about Saturday- Monday, although nyc south/ west areas have been chances of seeing 85-90ish temps. Though eps and gfs seem identical pushing heat south versus past runs After Friday. Pushing it sooner maybe? Idk .

Best example would be 18z gfs, which wants to push the heat south of 12z weekend wise. But has Friday being 90-95, warmer then previous run. Of course it's only 1 example of a models depiction.

Going into the weekend, I'm still seeing mixed signals temp wise, but what does seem fairly consistent is starts warm/ hot only to trend cooler each day. Friday being hottest.

Thunder heads keep forming and fizzling by me on the end here

Wow where did this wind come from! Wasn't this windy this morning

Rains not making any progress lol

Its moving, making progress to. But what happens whether it holds tougher or falls apart is to be seen.

Pottstown in I guess pa has over 4 inches of rain in a long stripe.

Since about 840 till now that line has went from 45 miles to 35 miles from a random spot near NYC to the edge. It is moving but with no rush at all

Can't give you the loop for eps cause upload file size is ridiculously small but I tried

Based on what the eps shows for ending of month into July, there's some heat but nothing super sustained, and (July 4th weekend starts out warm with July 1 being about 88 near NYC, down to 84 Saturday, 81 by Sunday, 80 July 4th, etc.) , gradually cooling down to upper 70s lower 80s by July 4th. With out gradually cooling into the middle to upper 70s after that weekend. But maybe a little warmer by the last couple frames..