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wthrmn654

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Everything posted by wthrmn654

  1. No not really. Bigger totals north east
  2. If the weather nerds map was accurate, everyone gets 30, jersey gets 30, nyc gets 30 parts of CT gets 30, long island gets 30, EVERYONE GETS 30 INCHES
  3. Lots of talk about the nam and little to no maps...... fail people fail
  4. You were alive for that? Makes you 137 years old
  5. KEY MESSAGE 2... Confidence has increased enough to warrant winter storm watch issuance for the entire CWA. Latest 12Z guidance coming into better agreement on potent northern stream shortwave energy diving SW from wrn Canada and the northern Plains into the plains and mid Mississippi valley by Sunday morning, phasing with southern stream coming out of the SW states and Mexico to carve out a deep closed low aloft over the Mid Atlantic and induce rapid cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic coast, with the surface low bombing out from from 1008 mb off the N Carolina coast Sunday morning to 970-975 mb near 38-39N/71W by Monday morning, then passing just outside the 40N/70W benchmark Monday afternoon, GFS still more intense and closer to the coast than the ECMWF, with its heaviest snow bands directly over the area as opposed to just offshore. NAM and SREF have both trended toward a heavier snowfall scenario as well, which has been a good signal in past heavy snowfall events. Snow should start Sunday morning, and may mix with rain at times especially in the NYC metro area, NE NJ and western Long Island. Then as precip intensity picks up later in the day Sunday p-type should become all snow throughout. Heaviest snow looks to fall from late day Sunday into Monday morning, then snow tapers off Monday afternoon. Greatest likelihood of seeing 6+ inches will be along the coast, especially eastern Long Island where up to a foot of accumulation is possible. Winds will also be strong Sunday night into Monday morning especially along the coast as the sfc low deepens, with blowing and drifting snow and some downed tree limbs as winds gust to at least 40-45 mph, and possible blizzard conditions in Suffolk, and near blizzard conditions elsewhere along the coast including NYC. NAM/GFS both signal potential for wind gusts to 60 mph late Sunday night into Monday morning, though these winds can sometimes be overdone in heavy snow events. If trends for heavy snow and strong winds continue to increase and expand northward, the potential for blizzard conditions could encompass all coastal areas. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories. .KEY MESSAGE 4...
  6. I saw that and wanted to punch someone! Rain to snow in all zones, really?
  7. Hold phone sideways to view correctly. & .CLIMATE... With the potential major snowstorm Sunday into Monday, there is the potential for some snowfall records to be broken. Here are the records for Sunday and Monday for the climate sites: Sun 2/22 Mon 2/23 Central Park, NY: 6.0/2008 4.8/1972 LaGuardia, NY: 6.4/2008 4.1/1972 John F Kennedy, NY: 6.9/2008 6.1/1987 Newark, NJ: 6.8/2008 4.1/1987 Islip, NY: 5.5/2008 6.7/1987 Bridgeport, CT: 7.0/2008 2.6/1987
  8. This well close schools for days possibly
  9. Plenty of snow pack left too add onto as well! Since still haven't hit 40°F lol
  10. I was about to say that, and even Boston before jersey. Jersey and Boston are usually the first to issue watches/ warnings.
  11. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE... Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. WHEN... From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. The combination of gusty winds and heavy wet snow could bring down tree branches.
  12. Could you speed up the loop and little bit?
  13. I'll ask them later on. But further east you are, good chance for warnings. No watches anymore.
  14. Watch Indicates that conditions are favorable for the particular weather event in and near the Watch area, and which may pose a risk to life and property. Watches are issued up to 72 hours in advance with forecaster confidence around 50%. Warning/Advisory Indicates that a particular weather event is imminent or occurring. Advisories are issued if the weather event will lead to nuisance conditions, while Warnings are issued for significant weather events which will pose a risk to life and property. Warnings and Advisories are issued up to 48 hours in advance with forecaster confidence of at least 80%.
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