wthrmn654

Well this looks bad? I'm horrible at fully understanding surge forecasts... wish it could be overlays with minor moderate and major flood thresholds.

This is from stony brooke storm surge research group. Not much surge for Orient it would appear.

What's interesting here on the east end, the tide gauge in orient had a rather low, low tide level at 3:53. Lower then the last 2 low tides. Winds are less today though so dunno exactly

They are all working on the cf products but they just told me and one of the TV mets that Hey guys were are still working on it. There are some changes to water levels and its complex coastline that we are dealing with. No changes to coastal flood benchmarks. Expecting a new CFW out within the hour.

12z First time the gefs ensembles are tightly clustered.

58mph I had to look up again

You know is simply the euro baiting everyone to rage after its been here all week saying hi hello, doesn't anyone believe me? Oh now you wanna believe me? Well screw you watch this!

Aren't gusts to 55 mph high wind criteria?

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 229 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 CTZ007>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-271000- /O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0003.260925T1800Z-260927T1000Z/ Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield- Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk- Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 229 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 2 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Here we go there starting to issue, so far i see wind advisory

There are coastal flood watches and coastal flood advisories for southern Nassau County and i thin south western Suffolk county issued last night. Highly expect more watches/ advisories to be issued very shortly for more areas.

Crazy were heading towards low tide right now, I think that area is as well though it could be closer to it already.

Like I been telling all my employees at work this week, storm or no storm, this is a great dry run for the winter season of big storms, and felt ready for erosion flooding, power outages, etc. And making sure all equipment is prepped working etc.. Same concept with this storm here, practice run for the winter. Gives us an idea of just craziness we might see, from nws, and deft from models. here's to a hopefully very cold, very snowy very stormy winter season with hopefully 5 blizzards!

Wind advisories are now up for boston nws zone from i think Hartford east. With winds advisories going that far west. I would guess either high wind warning (or watch knowing Upton) suffolk and advisories maybe Nassau County to nyc? Not sure about that part..

If we were to combine all of them, might be a nuclear mutation of a storm

Lol then why did I read online just now that the 12z ukmet came West.

Cmc run puts out 2-5 inches of rain Nassau and Suffolk County roughly speaking.

Is that the fv3 hi res Meso model i see on tidbits?

Correction, it would appear the cmc does a slow north west drift so to speak for a few frames at 988 in the direction of Montauk.

Heck the cmc even looks good, down to 988 at the last loaded frame and it does a spin just south of montauk

Me, rant, no lol deft must be the other guy lol

They're reply, they're actually in the middle of a big update and it will be pushed out this afternoon.

Standby, it's i haven't bothered them enough the last few days they should answer semi shortly. My guess/hunch is after 12z they will start doing big updates.

Icon looks stronger too