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Much of the showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of a surface warm front have lifted up into New England, with a trailing line across NE NJ. The latter of which could impact the NYC metro during the next 1-2 hour with possible rainfall rates greater than an inch (localized 2 inch amounts). HRRR also showing additional convection across eastern PA possibly working into NE NJ and the NYC metro between 7-9 pm (should it hold together) and then dissipating fairly quickly. There have been some wet microbursts in this activity with gusts up to 45 mph, but the main threat will be localized flash flooding. Warm front stalls across the area this evening with modest instability and an upper trough approaching from the west. Thus, will maintain scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, through the overnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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