wthrmn654

That's about same as earlier total wise

My temps running 3 degrees cooler then forecast at 11 right now

Upton is back online

156 pages wow

In Tennessee any snow that fell is now frozen solid per my sister. Temp of 24 there, from 19 in morning, shoot up like a rocket to 54 then down to the 20s. Wild temp swings down there.. rough living down there with such erratic temperatures.

All it would take is a delay in mix for higher totals to verify.

Guy from Upton just replied to me, techs are working on radar they hope to have it back in action tonight.

Oh and I reached out to Upton about radar no reply yet.

Is all that recon flying for the next system?

Based on nam eastern Long Island and north east does best, that's 2 runs in a row i think.. odd

Sister in Tennessee says about 1 inch of snow and now is sleeting, forecast hasn't really changed much at all for her temperature is 23 down there right now

Upton Snow will quickly develop from south to north across the area Sunday morning as the region lies underneath an intense polar jet streak lifting into southeast Canada. The snow will fall into arctic air with surface temperatures only in the low to mid teens. This is a bit unusual for the area as most snow events over the Tri-State occur with temperatures in the 20s or low 30s. The snow will quickly accumulate as the intensity picks up through the morning. Mid level thermal forcing will increase over the area, especially heading into the afternoon. The 850-700 mb frontogenesis is impressive and the overall deep layer of vertical velocities over the area strongly support heavy snow over the region in the afternoon. Only a slight increase in temperatures is expected in the afternoon, except the southern half of the area where temperatures rise into the mid 20s. As the warming in the mid levels continues, the chance for a mix with sleet near the coast increase sometime in the afternoon. Latest model trends this morning have a stronger warm layer with the coastal low development being a bit closer to the coast. This may allow for the mix of sleet to be a bit earlier than previously expected, beginning first as mainly snow mixed with sleet as early as 1-3 PM but becoming more of a primary period of sleet thereafter along the coast into Sunday evening. It needs to be emphasized that the overall impacts will not change and significant snow will occur before any wintry mix. There is a possibility the heavy snowfall rates will be able to hold back the warm nose just enough or create an isothermal layer on the 0C isotherm to prolong heavy snow for even just an hour two. Given the expected heavy snowfall rates of 1- 2" per hour (or possibly higher), even just an hour or two of mainly snow rather than sleet can result in a 2-5" difference in snow accumulation prior to the transition to sleet. Additionally, a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out in the heaviest bands with the impressive dynamics aloft and deep moisture being lifted over the low level arctic air. The strong mid level frontogenesis lifts northeast between 00-06z Monday and this should serve to gradually reduce precip rates. There may also be drying aloft, which will start to reduce snowfall rates where it remains all snow. The southern half of the area should see a wintry mix of sleet, potentially mixed with snow if the warm nose is not as deep. There is also a chance for some light freezing rain, mainly for Long Island and the NYC metro as the drying aloft occurs, cutting off snow growth along with the thinning of the depth of the low level cold air. This may also be dependent on how close the low pressure ends up to Long Island. The consensus of the modeling keeps the low just south and east of Long Island, but if it were to end up closer to the shore, some parts of eastern Long Island could briefly rise above freezing with light plain rain briefly possible. The system starts pulling away from the area late Sunday night into Monday morning. Some bands of light snow may return as the trailing upper trough approaches and the thermal profiles become colder heading into Monday. Probabilities for precip decrease significantly Monday afternoon and there is potential anything that falls may just be flurries. Overall, snowfall totals were adjusted slightly downward, mainly for the coast with increasing potential for sleet and an earlier timing of the mixing cutting down a bit on total accumulations. Long Island, the NYC Metro, and NE NJ are expected to see 8-12" total, but this may be in the form of 6-9" of snow and 1-2" of sleet. For more inland areas, total accumulations of 12-15" are expected consisting of primarily snow with less than an inch of sleet. As noted above, snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are expected in the afternoon and early evening. Winds will pick up in the afternoon and evening, especially near the coast and could create near white-out conditions/near blizzard conditions with winds gusting 30 to 40 mph at times, especially for coastal Long Island and coastal Connecticut. A mix or change to sleet will reduce this potential as visibilities would not be as low.

Yeah, where long island or cap cod doesn't even exist.

Don't forget orient is farthest north versus the city or the island but yeah that is wonky

As one of the NWS mets just told me, in regards to the nam. That degree of warming aloft might not be wrong. European seems slower to bring it in though. See what I wrote above about snow falling down south in some places where sleet was expected, don't know if that idea will work out east of the Appalachians as dynamic cooling from strong lift when the heavier snow falls here could delay any change to sleet and keep it farther south

Got down to 4.5 last night only about 16 as high. Mighty cold

Fyi, a nws met just said that observations down south are snow where sleet/ freezing rain was forecast. Still he says it's unknown if that will translate to good news up here for us.

That says 225 am. ?

I thought it was the nam being posted l ol disregard

What's odd, Upton ice map is less then what it had been last night or this morning I do believe

And with that we all missed updated warning. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 119 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-250800- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0001.260125T0800Z-260126T2300Z/ Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau- Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 119 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and sleet expected. The snow is expected to mix with or change to sleet Sunday afternoon into the evening. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 8 and 12 inches. A brief changeover to light freezing rain along with a few hundredths of ice may occur Sunday night. The precipitation may go back to light snow late Sunday night. Isolated wind gusts around 35 mph possible Sunday afternoon and evening. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 3 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Roads will become snow covered and hazardous. Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow.

If they were to change totals i would go with 8-14 for long Island area to cover all possibilities

Range versus pinpoint #s i like because it gives a better idea if the variables in the forecast where mix leads to lower end but more snow means higher end. I believe that's the expected # for select locations.

Should use the more accurate version of there forecast then pinpoint amounts. This looks like a good snow forecast map.

That has me in the 12-15 range along with north shore of Long Island.