wthrmn654

Lmfao at everything at 10% or 0%

It's kinda a pointless tag too with it having no tropical anything really, only subtropical 1. Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves north- northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

So gfs 12z unless I'm missing something, only shows 1 tropical thing, that's in the Gulf the entire run. Or am I wrong, I'm working so not fully looking at it

Barely anything. If anything laughable gefs looking run the last few slides.

Some key things that made Ernesto basically an "er- nothing" would be the following: ●The forward movement was much higher then a normal typical TC setup. I feel that if it was more or less going slower then 10 mph, it would of better absorbed the ocean heat and possibly not gotten into such crappy environment. ●Dry air, dry air, dry air! That system could not shake the dry air that was getting wrapped around it. ●running into shear at various times on top of the other negative factors didn't help any. ● the front it ran into kinda also hurt it to an extent. Right as it was looking and acting betterbefore Bermuda, the front started hurting it. Again very much ties into the whole fast forward motion

And that's a wrap with Ernesto, it's becoming tilted and shear is now starting to affect it with the peak already achieved.

4.05 inches wow

3.31 so far for the day lol

Water spout? Tornado? Used Upton and Boston radar both show something weird, the gif loop shows better but I can't post it..

Dunno if anyone posted this but, BREAKING: Route 34 near the Stevenson Dam is GONE! Horrible flood situation in Monroe with reports of the Air National Guard en route.

@CurlyHeadBarrett trolling posts is frowned Upon @Rjay

I think he's got some dry air issues again.

We can add to the fact, it's barely intensified, per microwave with most recent being less then an hour old.

The raw output form the hurricane-regional model guidance now all show an overnight or Monday morning peak intensity of 75-kt or higher in the next 12-24 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a bit more intensification overnight. However, Ernesto will quickly move over cooler ocean waters just after 12 h and weakening will likely be well underway by tomorrow afternoon.

You aren't seeing the bigger picture and continually keep focusing on the wrong things. 1 model versus multiple models.

Doesn't look bad at all honestly just sounds windy

Half the storms missing, and I think it's going pass to the right of Bermuda..

The damage is done, so far recon isn't seeing crazy winds, if not lower so far, unless the right plot is not the one that's use but instead the left one.

Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). Saildrone SD-1068 located about 25 miles (90 km) west-northwest of Ernesto's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h), with a gust to 89 mph (143 km/h). The Bermuda International Airport also recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h), with a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 After looking quite ragged this morning, Ernesto's structure on satellite has made a comeback. A burst of convection that began after the last advisory has wrapped around the western side of the hurricane, and the eye has also tried to clear. The structural improvement in Ernesto was also seen from the last couple of Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter fixes which indicated the eyewall definition had improved while remaining quite large. This improved eyewall can also be seen on radar imagery out of Bermuda. Before departing, the peak flight-level winds from the NOAA-P3 aircraft was 107 kt at 750 mb, while the Air Force reconnaissance measured 99 kt at 700 mb. While the satellite-based intensity estimates are a bit lower, the initial intensity will be held at 85 kt given the higher aircraft observations and improvement in structure this afternoon. Of note, Saildrone SD-1068 appears to currently be in the northwest eyewall of Ernesto and recently reported wind gusts of hurricane-force and significant wave heights up to 36 feet. Ernesto has maintained a north-northeast track this afternoon, estimated at 035/11 kt. There isn't much change in the track thinking this afternoon, as a mid to upper-level trough that has been helping the hurricane move poleward will leave Ernesto behind over the next day or two. While Ernesto will remain steered by a subtropical ridge to its southeast, it is still forecast to temporarily slow its north-northeastward motion. Thereafter, another shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region is expected to dig southeastward over the Eastern U.S. and act as a kicker that will help to accelerate Ernesto more northeastward between forecast days 2 to 3. There is not much change to the track guidance this afternoon, just perhaps a touch slower after the next 24 hours, and the NHC track forecast lies very close to the prior one, close to the multi-model consensus aids. Based on the latest track, Ernesto's large eye will likely be very near or over Bermuda tomorrow morning. Intensity-wise, the model guidance continues to be insistent that Ernesto will weaken some in the short term as it battles 20-25 kt vertical wind shear out of the west, though so far Ernesto has been been more resilient than expected, possibly due to its large size. Nonetheless, this NHC intensity forecast will show some weakening, though not as much as IVCN or some of the hurricane-regional models over the next 24 h. After that time, shear decreases again while Ernesto will remain over 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures, and the intensity guidance responds to these more favorable conditions by showing some restrengthening. Finally, after 60 h, Ernesto will quickly cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream as the shear also begins to rapidly increase again. The NHC intensity forecast shows the hurricane completing extratropical tradition just after 72 h as the system passes nearby the southeastern coast of Newfoundland Canada.

It even has sound wow

We lost the eye

Next recon mission is starting shortly so we shall see what is really going on

It's going be a fight to the finish line no doubt,! Microwave shows it getting weaker and it goes to 20:45utc so as fresh as it can get.