wthrmn654

Upton back peddled lga and nyc might tie records today lol

54

See, that's why I thinking snowman meant records broken possibly jersey south, at least with 50-80% chance of actually coming close if not breaking.

Btw, there's no option to change text size on stuff being posted other then bold, italic, and underline? Also max upload file size is only 1.5mb? Been forever since I been on here just quickly asking to refresh memory.

Ahead of the cold front, models are in good agreement with a strong llj (70-80kt@950mb) developing across eastern coastal areas late tonight into early Friday morning. As is typical for this time of year with water temps in the lower 40s, the challenge is how much of the llj will be able to mix down in a strongly inverted low-level environment. GFS/NAM have remained fairly consistent over the last 48 hrs, with GFS indicating a typically slightly deeper mixed layer, with potential for 50 kt gusts across LI/SE CT, while NAM more strongly inverted indicating gust potential of 40 kt. NBM has trended slightly upward with gust magnitude from 24 hrs ago, with 4.0 indicating 45-50kt gust potential for LI and SE CT, while version 4.1 continuing to showing a 45-55 kt potential for LI/CT. HRRR 10m wind gust potential, which has show to be skillful (albeit a little high) indicating potential for 55-60kt gusts for LI and SE CT as well. SPC HREF indicating high potential for 30kt sustained winds across LI/SE CT as well (not common), supporting the strong to damaging wind gust potential. Based on the model consistency and trends over the last few days, confidence is high in a strong wind (wind advisory) event tonight across the entire area, including NYC (45-55mph gusts), with moderate to high confidence in high winds gusts (55-65mph) for LI and SE CT under the core of the 75-80 kt llj. The timing for peak strong to high wind gusts continues to center around 6-12z Fri. Despite the strong inversion, based on the slight upward trend on NBM 4.0 wind gust guidance towards the stronger NBM 4.1 guidance, the strong signal from CAM guidance, and the anomalous strength of the llj, will upgrade to a high wind warning for all of LI and SE CT. Elsewhere will issue a wind advisory for strong wind gust potential ahead of and immediately behind the cold front, with highest threat along the coast and higher elevations.

I was just reading that, things trended back up over night, I guess that was too be expected. Lol

Possibly one logical reason and, I do get it/ understand it, to name storms would be for better identifying/remembering storms more easily versus simply dates. Also, if there's say 5 storms in a2 week period, that could easily get confusing when your throwing around months/ years and getting individual storms confused. Using the hurricane centers great success of people easily recalling past storms by name, maybe part of the reason they tried it. Idk

With multi quote, you can answer each of the quoted posts under that particular quote, if that makes sense.

Hrrr wind speed show some 40-50kts south of Long Island though.

At any rate the 10m speeds aren't very impressive as those I know at correct view.

Lol that makes way more sense haha

One of these things is not like the other lol

This is what it is showing 300 feet up btw. 60-112kts

At 10m, this is what euros saying. Translating to 50-55mphs models were suggesting 70-75 other day at 500ft or so. Again the NWS say the big winds are going be about 500ft up in eastern areas.

500 feet up to be exact. Yes I know. Again gfs is over doing like it usually does with big wind lol

Upton said wind threat has lessened. But there using nam gfs middle ground apparently

Gfs goes overboard mixing every time.

Upton even saying likely only wind advisory for eastern areas, cold waters negate big winds

Wind event is looking less impressive.

Highs on Thursday will get well into the 50s, but shy of record highs. Lows Thursday night will be the 40s to around 50.

Ironically I thought we had a nice normal ish spring last year.

Which is why I asked where exactly were you talking about records being broken. Maybe jersey/ south?

A torch is defined as being 10 or more above normal temperatures. With that said, in the OKX region, no records are expected to be broken as there in the mid- upper 60s.

What date periods are you refereeing to? And are more specifying location?

Define torch,