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wthrmn654

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Everything posted by wthrmn654

  1. wthrmn654
    Could be a flare up, but will be interesting to see if it confines etc.
  2. wthrmn654
    oh, looking through my tropical favorites other day, sadly, we have lost the model plots maps from : www.sfwmd.gov they have discontinued them sadly.. i liked there model
  3. wthrmn654
    gefs is east, closer to florida, versus eps west... we have seen this before though and its going either be a win for the euro or a win for the gfs.
  4. wthrmn654
  5. wthrmn654
  6. wthrmn654
    Give me a second I have 6z tracks lol there kinda funny as gefs and eps have kinda switched from what I gathered.
  7. wthrmn654
    97L has formed
  8. wthrmn654
    What the heck did the 6z euro do? I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking at....
  9. wthrmn654
    Gefs still has basically 2 clusters one goes up the east coast one goes back into the gulf, after its on the east coast.... talk about head scratching
  10. wthrmn654
    Early on euro, looks like it lost the storm with nothing out to Monday.
  11. wthrmn654
    Icon gets it very close to us as well following a very similar path
  12. wthrmn654
    Wow , that cmc is interesting Goes through florida then up through Georgia then the Carolinas then back into Atlantic then up very close to us..
  13. wthrmn654
    18z eps further in gulf too
  14. wthrmn654
    It should be noted that the gefs 00z has a handful of Atlantic ensembles as well. In the beginning before it goes left...
  15. wthrmn654
    1.15 inches this morning, not bad.
  16. wthrmn654
    One thing to note, The euro AI model latest run gets it very close to the long Island area about 985mb, but it's run to run changes are 1000% dramatic. Highly unlikely
  17. wthrmn654
    Navgem, icon, euro and jma all show a fairly similar idea, the cmc has also looked like the euro idea but has been wildly all over the place. Gfs has been a very stubborn child with the left turn... . However, Going into the Florida area they all look to start the same roughly speaking... That's my opinion of what I see/ have seen with all various runs etc.. little to no predictably as of yet.
  18. wthrmn654
    18z icon shows it going into gulf, crosses florida, then comes out eastern ish side. Weak mess but juicy..
  19. wthrmn654
    I'm not so sure it caved, play that whole run it then comes up the coast and gets stronger with it heading for long Island or nyc it would seem. Believeable or likely happening? 1% chance But it's something to deft keep eyes on... cmc has had an up the coast setup as well jma too am extent to... but there's a lot of wacky variables at play.
  20. wthrmn654
    Big surprise shock, nws says peconic river gauge out of service. To high lol
  21. wthrmn654
    Current total on my new station at my house is 1.43 inches. At my parents house on the older (2008)Davis pro2 plus, there at 1.31 inches. At my state park coop station, I've recorded, 1.58 inches. All 3 locations are in orient, with my house station about 1.5 miles away from the parks. And my house to my parents about 2.3 miles so roughly about 2 miles distance difference. The totals were less uniform yesterday I will say.
  22. wthrmn654
    I would imagine there gauge has been running higher then forecast and the nws ended up doing the coastal flood advisory and putting up a statement for our end and last night ended up being highest to date for this high tide cycle lol. There final high was about 7.25 feet. Tonight high tide is apart to be highest region wide as per nws 730 update. Here's riverhead past several days and orient gauges for example. For some reason riverhead doesn't show as many days but you get the idea.
  23. wthrmn654
    Wow forecast was 5.6 feet at 9 pm. Actual height 7.22 Pretty bad slap to the face forecast fail.
  24. wthrmn654
    7.22 major flood stage riverhead
  25. wthrmn654
    Flood gauge in riverhead, just about hit major tonight, we'll above forecast... orient gauge was 4.13 just shy of minor, also above forecast.
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