wthrmn654

Like you said, everything is almost opposite what they were saying earlier, be interesting to see what they find at the 11 on update! With the forming inner-core earlier observed by recon and still seen on radar currently, the tropical storm appears poised to intensify more significantly in the short term. Given the low vertical wind shear, ample moisture, and very warm sea-surface temperatures, a faster rate of intensification is shown over the next 36 h, and Francine is now forecast to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow morning, and a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. In the final 12-18 h before landfall, shear is expected to increase markedly, which will likely halt the intensification, though Francine is expected to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland. The NHC intensity forecast is on the upper-end of the overall intensity guidance, but still is lower than some of the hurricane-regional model guidance (HAFS-B, HMON).

A lot of dry air to the north and also the west but the west side isn't easily shown. Weather channels talking in depth right now about it.

It's extremely close to the coast, an area that's been extremely hot all summer, and semi dryer environment ( I'm not totally sure on moisture levels to the west of the coast per say) . There's quite a bit of dry air to the north west of Francine too.. Look what happened to the storm that hit Bermuda, countless dry air that wasn't exactly forecasted, something very hard to perdict imo.

Former nhc guy on weather Channel speaks reality finally, dry air wrapping into storm, could affect intensity down the road possibly but will have to wait to see just what affect it has.

Last pass had best winds closest to center 45-50 knots close to 60 mph.

One planes using SFMR the other isn't. The one using has not seen good winds at all yet.. interesting as of right now, winds measured so far suggest 51 mphs max

Max winds found so far about 45knts south east section

AS of now winds are piss poor boring

Correction recon drops suggest 993-999 pressure so well wait to see

Both planes were in the eye at the exact same time/ location both doing low altitude recon, talk about ballsie!

Sat estimate was 988 pressure, plane shows 988 pressure impressive ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 09 SEP 2024 Time : 234020 UTC Lat : 24:14:55 N Lon : 96:09:58 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.4 / 988.6mb/ 53.0kt

The weather Channel right now.... my gosh makes it sound like it's becoming a hurricane right now really getting it's act together... A weee bit overkill at this moment

Barney turn around, you missed the exit!

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

997.9 mb so far

So far nothing exciting on recon but the first planes close now

Sat intensities hint/ suggest some weaker winds

Is that dry air getting wrapped into it on the bottom right?