Baum

perhaps. or a pattern breaker. Time will tell. But does look like something is on the horizon for someone in the midwest around the new year.

FWIW....THE ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW A STRONG CYCLONE TRACKING INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS CENTERED AROUND DECEMBER 30. - per quad cities AFD

If we don't get some snow soon, I may have to head over to the covid thread for some more light and cheerful banter.

^ thanks. I'm sure a detailed snow accumulation graphic paints me in the 12"-18" swath. Always like these New Years Day flips to winter after a mild fall.

^ now do new years.

actually hints at a small potential this weekend FWIW. And I'm guessing overall it's throwing ...t at a wall given our weather doldrums. But he does provide a speck of hope: ATTENTION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF 2020 THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL PACIFIC BORNE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING A RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THERE'S ACTUALLY PRETTY DECENT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THE GENERAL BIG PICTURE IDEA OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION, SO LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. GIVEN LIKELY MILDER STARTING POINT GOING INTO SUNDAY, COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTS BACK IN. STILL LOTS OF INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE AND TIME TO SORT OUT THIS PERIOD, BUT WE'LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. MEDIUM-LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO POINTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY CONTINUING BEYOND DAY 7. CASTRO

MEDIUM-LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO POINTING TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN POTENTIALLY CONTINUING BEYOND DAY 7. CASTRO

Someone needs a diaper change it seems.

you can feel the desperation in this thread. Our time will come. This probably isn't it.

phrase of the month: "detroit duster."

our day is coming

a voice of reason.

^ December 2020 in a nutshell. "pound town" and "0.7" in the same sentence.

it's only a matter of time.

I'm getting concerned about the sun angle once we do get some snow in February. Sidenote: if there was ever a time to ride the Bastardi "rubberband theory" it is now....summary; the weather will only pull so far in one direction for so long (warm/dry) before the band has to snap back even farther in the other direction(cold/wet)...not sure this applies in today's modern world of climate change where places like Chicago could become the Mojave desert in time.

ban him.

does this line up with Brian D's call for Christmas back on the 4th of July?

gorgeous dog.

you just did. and it missed you to the north leaving you with backside slush.

better known as a CYA advisory.

pouring rain. I'll send pics soon.

same idea: THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW SATURDAY MORNING. CAA WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LOW- LEVELS, ALLOWING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES AS TO HOW FAST THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MARCH OCCURS, WITH SOME GUIDANCE HOLDING ON TO WARMER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, PRECIP RATE WILL LIKELY DICTATE PRECIP TYPE, WITH HEAVIER RATES IN A POSSIBLE AXIS OF MODERATE DEFORMATION PRECIP FAVORING ALL SNOW VS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN. SOME 00Z GUIDANCE (CMC, ECMWF) ARE SUGGESTING THIS POTENTIAL NORTH OF I-80 LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO, WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES ONLY LIMITED ACCUMULATING SNOW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE WI STATE LINE, NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS, INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO NORTHWEST OF AN AURORA TO GLENCOE LINE.

pretty sure we're not going to know what's going to happen until it happens.

improvement for my back yard.

who knew a cold rain at 37 would be a positive step in the right direction on December 12?