Baum

compromise of euro/gfs is golden.

In all my years I've never seen someone hit a ratio accurately. You'll know when it's happening.

huh? am I missing something? This is from ILX:AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE IL RIVER AND 3-5 INCHES OVER KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES, WITH OVER 6 INCHES NW OF KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES POSTED MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING.

truer words never said.....

LOT: THE GENERAL TREND IN GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF WOULD BOTH SUGGEST A FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW THAN WHAT WE HAVE IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, DESPITE THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GEM AND GFS BOTH FAVORING NORTHERN CWA INTO SOUTHERN WI. FOR PLACEMENT, THIS FORECAST CYCLE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE NORTHERN MEMBERS OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, SO AS TO ONLY TREND THE FORECAST SOUTHWARD RATHER THAN MAKE A LARGE SOUTHWARD ONLY TO HAVE LATER RUNS SHIFT BACK NORTH.

Curious, what did yesterday's 18Z NAM show you getting accumulation wise versus this afternoon's run?

was referring to Hawkeye stating the UKMET being correct. Probably should have responded to him versus your post.

post mortems get done after events not during. Way to early to declare any model victories at this stage as todays model runs vs. NWS watches being posted show.

Will be interesting to read their PM AFD....as that seems like an odd move given todays runs. Does not include Dupage or Cook...so clearly discounting any south east fade....

ALEK gonna bust low....

I don't know. Personally, I'll take today's Euro run any day. Realize, this is all subjective based on where one resides and how the storm impacts them. And there is concern with any relevant event and will it verify. But a 6" + event seems reasonable at this point.....

really 36 hours to go and some "more as the models turn".....as I said meltdowns are a comin.....

Am I missing that this looks like a solid 5"-10 " event with potential for greater totals through the heart of Chicago Metro, and a 200 mile wide swath of plowable snow from NE MO. through S and central lower Michigan? Perspective's are getting a bit skewed me thinks. 15" plus events are rare to say the least. Also, some fluctuations in intensity and path are part of the game. Yesterday after 12Z runs everyone had it in Madison, today Toledo. To me, models have now all converged on a high quality snow event with a 30-50 mile fluctuations both north and south.

i don't think this will be Thanksgiving weekend 2018 or the late April storm last spring. If it comes to fruition expect a bit drier consistency as time plays on....fingers crossed.

tractor beam.

Meltdown watch in effect....

^ The man, the myth, the legend......

good morning...another day of model watching ftw....whatta hobby! words for the day per LOT:THE BASIC MESSAGE HOWEVER IS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MID-WEEK.

FWIW.... Caunucks model looks more like the NAM...placement through N. Ill, S. Wisc., SW. LMich through 72 hrs. Not sure about the defo band yet. Looks like a solid run for these areas to me. The evolution on the NAM and GEM seem much more realistic to me.

NAM looks like a reasonable solution , and on quick glance looks like a decent event through hour 72 hr. N. Ill. S. Wisconsin, and S. Lower Mich. Even puts MBY on defo band through hour 84.

I'd say your right. But sneaky suspicion you'll bust low.

clearly, a touch too far north.

personal take. Everything looks to far north and west.

nope. I said I saw a "crack"...not a true meltdown. And the meltdowns are key to each storm thread IMHO. They add character. It's getting late and I suspect this thread may get a bit tense. 18Z NAM with a different look. Shocker.

Haven't really seen a good meltdown in a while despite the general futility of this winter. Definitely, seeing some cracks in this post. I suspect this storm could be the one to really push some folks over the edge given it's potential.