cleetussnow

meh.  At least its snowy lately and cold is coming.  Let's see if early next week breaks our way...

...edit...which is not looking good on the 18z GFS.  

Deep winter = 2 high confidence snow chances and a wicked cold shot, and there is a lot of snowpack on the ground. Maybe someone should start a deep winter snow thread for these 'storms' since with a little LE the totals could rival last Fridays storm.

= 

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Go look at NE forum right now, some epic meltdowns because of their lack of snow right now. I think some of those guys would sacrifice their first born for a good snowstorm.  

I understand when winter doesn't produce people get frustrated, but that group is off the rails. And look at how often some of them post.  50k is not unusual over there.  Get a life.   

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/09/804266975/british-airways-sets-speed-record-crossing-the-atlantic-in-under-5-hours

 @Typhoon Tip.  Here is another example of a jetliner crossing the Atlantic with a SuperSonic ground speed riding the jet stream.  A new record for a subsonic jetliner.  Under 5 hours New York to London.  

Id say 14 up here in old forge.  Winter wonderland look to it.  Pulled a plow truck free twice around my camp, and so he cleared my driveway.  Heading out into the wilderness now!

I’m in on the d6.  I love the ukie.  Seems like a good model.

32 minutes ago, Polarbear said:

I’d be tempted to try the 9 run... tho I think you mentioned rt 41 and that wouldn’t be my road of choice in the dark and a snow storm 

I'm making my run up the Hudson valley tomorrow afternoon/evening, then over to the western Dacks.  Hopefully its trailing off by then.  Worried about an icing section right about Albany rush hour.  

Gfs scaled back big time.  But the dynamics don’t look much different at a quick glance.  

Edit cut back on the west and dacks in many areas.

18 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

The black lines are antimatter caused by the snowicane. 

Blackholes DO emit radiation.  932 low is what that says, with like Zillions of other LP centers

13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I need more evidence of this, like a lot lol

I know.  I won't believe it until I'm in hell driving through it.  I'll at least get a chance to test my new truck tires in some man snow.

10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I lived in southern Herkimer county for 6 years and it always seemed like c/n Herkimer were getting smoked with LES lol

West-wsw winds needed with elevation, winds are usually the strongest out of the west..

It can come in a hurry up there!  The lewis county forecast office is different from the Herkimer office.  Lots of times the snowfall forecasts differ right on that line.  Herkimer is a skinny county.

2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Old Forge is in Herkimer County 

Duh right.  Lewis is the left, Hamilton to the right.  fixed original post.  

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Old Forge gets a ton of snow, no? I’m looking to buy in the ADK. Right now I’m looking at Brantingham Lake. It’s the furthest SW and still be in the park. Piseco is also nice. I need water. 

It does, but it's not like the Tug.  I imagine 150 to 170 inches is around the normal winter. They've had some 450 inch winters in the old days, and a couple 300 inchers in this century.  nowhere close to normal this year.  The LE snow is probably half of the normal total, but that is a hard thing to know.  I've been to Piseco area in the winter.  Brantingham is probably snowier than OF since it is closer to the lake effect zone.  We head that way from OF on sleds.  I believe Brantingham is at a lower elevation than OF so snow doesn't hang on as long. I'd go for Brant if you wanted to get in on LE snows.  Piseco may have orographics going for it same as Old Forge with some upslope, and elevation might help retaining the pack.

14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Are you in Oneonta? I can’t remember 

I have a camp up in Old Forge in Herkimer county.  Its not really a major LE area.  need synoptics.  

GFS looks good.  At this time, I will stick with Euro Ukie and GFS in that order, and then tomorrow take the NAM and mesocscale guidance more serious.  

this is so borderline for many that the R/S/I line will be gametime call.  

8 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Yes we are in a really good spot at this point. Latest guidance even the GFS shows upwards of 10 inches from both combined. 

I’ll be heading to my camp in old forge.  Looks good but can’t get into the higher totals that far west and shadowed.  I may have to drive through whatever ice condition develops along 87, that’s my main worry.  Hopefully it’s all out by 18z or shortly after Friday so I can make my way up.

That was a great euro run and it’s possible. Best look since November. Lol

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You fukking idiots....did you look at the date on those weeklies posted?  It’s this week!  2/3-10.

Um. Yeah.  And also noticed the play button.  

You want the Euro in your court despite recent erratic behavior.  its still the king if weaker.  I say ukie + euro is the way to go at this time range.

cold is close through all the frames at least.  Maybe a good presidents week for skiiing

2 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

EURO actually looks not half bad. Drops 6-12 over both storms for a majority of the region

33 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

These seem to be some type of pacific warm high pressure systems. Ridging strong positive anamoly high pressure system.  Weird. Anamaolous . No clue myself. Theory

For these HPs to be 'cold' that have to be at least arctic/polar origin, and that is basically in the Hudson Bay at this time frame based on the TTB Euro maps. The cold is pretty bottled up until the storm passes then we can a transient cold shot for like 36 hours, then we don't see another arctic/polar type airmass until later next week.  The euro shows just enough cold to tap for western NY/central NY for mostly snow.  This is 4 days so in Euro we trust.    

airmass is trash.  I would think an 988 LP would chuck precip further west.  I think the convection in the Atlantic is having an effect.

But typical with winter, rain to maine.  I just hope the western shifts stop.  

Per gfs if that the LP next weekend goes much further west we can track convection maybe.  That’s a threat.

19 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Next week is gonna be interesting. With our luck we end up with three messes. CN we get lucky just once? 
This progressive flow is annoying. Anything that  has any potential is strong so it catches too soon and cuts. The weaker ones slide south. So it’s damned if you do and damned if you don’t. At this juncture, I’d take weak sliders. It’s tough to see a big one catching at the right time. It’s easy to see on the ensembles, the deeper LP’s are NW while the weaker ones are South. 
At least we have stuff to track! 

if those 6 days threats were our oasis then we would die of thirst.  Mirages or minimal qpf to quench thirst. Just then another oasis appears 7 days off, so we crawl and claw on our bedraggled bellies toward it, parched and desperate, but that's all we can do!  track.

We always have hope and hope never lets us down.  here's to winter 2022.  i might just turtle up and conserve energy.  

I was living in germany I think - honestly have no memory of it.  I also don't remember 78 being a hit there, but i could be mixing those 2 years.  

NOW i do remember something up there in 94....