cleetussnow

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I received 88" of snow in Nov 14 in 3 days. This storm is moving to #1 on my list. I recorded over 50 bolts of lightning last night.

Jesus Christ.

Tell you what…they know how to party in Buffalo.  
 

Once you experience that, how can you even get out of bed for less than 3 feet?  Psssht.  Mt. Rainer is like (spits out some beer.)
 

Someone will get my seasonal normal 2x from this….today.  And 3x by tomorrow.  
 

You try to make a snow angel in that and they will never find your body.  

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man I’m pumped to see it and I’m 400 miles way lol 

Just go stand on your roof and look west at this point.

I have a fair amount of experience with LE chasing and also trying to avoid heavy stuff because I needed to get somewhere.  I typically have been in and around the tug because I had a camp east of there.  Basically you can be unlucky and lucky at the same time: lucky to be in the band you came to see, unlucky because there are times when you just cannot drive.  I have an HD truck which is pretty much set up with snow in mind and it usually comes down to viz issues. Cant see, cant drive.  The truck will move no problem (within reason) but not if I go into a ditch or something because of viz its game ova.  

1 minute ago, Jebman said:

Question for people in Hamburg area: Isnt that snowpack compacting? Even though Hamburg has received 47 inches, hasnt the pack compacted to merely three feet? Is this why where Timmer is at, the snow looks only three feet deep?

I am not there but typically compaction is pretty quick. Lake effect ratios can be over 20. Not as high this time though because the lake  is very warm. Perhaps we dont see the dramatic compaction of like 25 to 1 ratios. 
 

Someone up there can give us the real dope on whats happening on the ground tho rn

Jeb walking?

Try Jeb tunneling

25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

More thundersnow! You guys can follow my twitter/youtube as I will be posting on there more.

Dude the video on youtube…just wow.  I liked and subscribed.  Keep em coming

26 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

He is the opposite of Snowman19. A tale of two weenies. 

Compromise would work.  A normal winter.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Elma ny had 98” in November 2014, I had 88” here. Buffalo airport record is dec 2001 event at 82”. 2007 is biggest event on record at tug hill 10 day totals of 140”

Oh wow I didn't know about those bigger totals.  140 is a lot of snow but I think many on here would settle for 98.   
 

wrapping my head around 8 to 12 feet of snow…just cray to think about it even though we know it happens.

Lets do this.  I think Chautauqua was the winner last time with 65 inches.   
 

Its well short of the unofficial state record which I think was Redfield in 2007.  11 plus feet?  But 66 will do.  

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

would love to be there for a LES event. It's funny, we get excited over 8-12"....

Remember, its fake snow.  Yeah.  Fake.  Doesn't even count.

For but real that is kielbasa defined.

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

If there are any chasers out there. Buf NWS calling for feet of snow this week. I haven't seen them use crippling in a forecast discussion since Nov 2014. Could be an all timer

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  in this long duration event of MULTIPLE feet will be possible
  in the most persistent lake snows.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD...

 

 

Yeah this is going to produce some memorable images, though man, how do you top 2014?  Sunday could be a fun day to watch the Bills.

17 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Anyone here have Allstate for auto?

We are looking to switch from Geico, they are getting on my nerves 

I quit Geico same reason.  Went to liberty.  Now they are gouging me since I added a teen.  switching to Travelers and saving 3K.  

My froze over last night with a light glaze of ice as the temp got to 27.5 last night.  It's pretty shallow.  Kicked the bubbler on and cleared the ice.  I want the fish to ALL live through this winter.  Sick of dead goldfish and koi in the spring.

16 minutes ago, katabatic said:

I’m going to be chasing from Maryland…if there are folks meeting up (hotel etc), let me know. PM me if you get a sec. 

I can't get to this one...Which is always going to be a challenge because you can't plan for these kinds of things!  This would be the one I would want to go after, though.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This is what weenies dream of. I have to chase this one day .

Have fun 

I will go with you.  We can take my truck.  Just a matter of being able to go when the shit goes down.

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I could leave late Wednesday and drive there all night. If I’m able to call out Friday then I wouldn’t work again until Sunday at 6pm which I probably wouldn’t be able to move. I don’t know if it’s possible to get back to Philly by Sunday. Are they able to clear the roads to make them at least passable to get outside the LES effected region? I own a normal sedan. Unless I decide to rent a truck/SUV.


.

Don't count on the roads being clear in any particular place for any period of time, SUV or not.  I have a 2500 with big tires and I've been SOL in that.  It's hard to predict what areas get smoked.

But this is the nature of the chase.  You are going toward the shooting, not running from it.  Expect incoming rounds or you are doing it wrong!

Checking in and seeing this.  wow.  8 years to the DAY...if this wasn't already mentioned...

Lake Effect Summary: November 17-19, 2014 (weather.gov)

Hey guys if you need a snow fix Buffalo may have something to hold you over. 2 feet plus possible of fake snow from Thursday to Saturday.  Some model runs have printed a lot more than that.  They've had some November doozies to point where all but the most mental were crying for their mothers.  

8 years ago, to the day: Lake Effect Summary: November 17-19, 2014 (weather.gov)

Can they do it again?  

Here is a rip for the upstate NY thread:

Hunga tunga got some press.  Nice job.  May you bust high on temps and low on snow totals.  

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Happy Birthday to a weenie in NE CT who doesn’t quite live at 1K,  but almost does. 

I think you mean 10,000 (estimate based on snowfall obs)

And Happy Birthday from the (mostly) lurker community!      

Maybe December won’t be like last December with a +6 temp departure or whatever it was. Until Christmas day of course.  Lets not get greedy.

17 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Captain Reno and Benteen arrive on the 11th.       Too bad neither can read a topo map and will probably get lost.

good reference

4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

To his credit, that is a conservative outlook for him.  

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Iceland is gorgeous and the Northern Lights there are absolutely amazing.  Absolutely worth it to have a long night there.

 

Buddy of mine is there rn.  Says it is amazing and sent pictures of norther lights last night.  Thinking of making this a stopover to break up the flight to France or something.  

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'll betcha 50 bucks I'll be more right than wrong, ...even after "subjective review" tries to refute what is obvious, too -

Climate change is affecting winter.  ..badly.

Winter season forecasters are not adapting to that, or enough, either way. 

The way it is affecting is it is causing surplus of gradient, regardless of ENSO.  Regardless of polar index modes. In fact, the later appears to only add to it when those negative modes happen to be offloading over on our side of the N. hemisphere.  

Heights from Old Mexico to southern GA ... tend to stay 3-5 dm higher than the previous 300 years of climate inference. 

These are reproducing observations spanning 10 years at this point - other than outlier like 2015 Feb...which spikes along curves is also part of the business.  

Sometimes persistence is a forecaster's friend.  Knowing when 'she wants to break up with you' ? That's another story - eventually, they all break your heart.  But that's the problem... you're not getting pattern persistence in winters.  We've been seeing disruptions in winter pattern footprints - particularly in one regard:  very hard to maintain a pattern bias.  Mass field changes occurring in short duration time spans.  That stochastic aspect at large scales is causing a storm in January ( yay!) to be a week near 70 if not historic 80 in Februaries.  Snow in October... with 78 F high temperatures on May 15 with hydrostatic heights of 538 dam!   ( that's a weirdly odd, that synoptic combination of metrics).

The fact that our mix event flop vector appears to now be wet, not white...

Combinations of a varied spectrum of observational oddities, from sensible backyard, to more pan-dimensional/super-synoptic, can't be satisfied using the inferences that are still employed from the previous more stable climate - before the hockey stick got underway. 

But I don't put out seasonal forecasts... I wouldn't dare in a public venue like the Internet weather-based social forum, particularly now, when the winters are being affected by a warming world - ooh sign me up for that vitriol!  The convention of "stellar attention to objective reasoning and acceptance" that goes on here isn't really very conducive.   Plus, none of this means we can't have a better year, or even redux a 2015 something... It's a matter of said objectivity merely knowing the odds of doing that any given year  ... is going down

We'll either be below normal snow and above normal temperatures.

Or ... we'll bootleg our way to normal snow from a lucky coastal and windex events, with a smattering of front enders that switch to 33 rain instead of icing... with temperatures still finding a way to be above normal if by decimals.