cleetussnow

50 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

15 years?  It was longer than that.  Growing up in the 70s and 80s there was a market change after 1992 so that's almost 30 years.  We had winters like this year after year for decades before that save for a few great years/storms. 

People here sound like spoiled brats throwing temper tantrums because they don't like the weather.  My worst winter was 2002 when my largest "storm" left 3" of snow.  It still remains my mildest winter as well.  The funny thing was that in late April we had a heat wave but a few weeks later in May it snowed.  That remained my latest snow for years and that was my lousiest winter.  So special things can happen even in the crappiest of winter.

I could go with 93 to 2015.  My first storm memory was 77. The next one is 93. Lol.  

Wouldn’t surprise me if this pattern persists for the long haul. The pacific is big heater and it needs to cool off, and I don’t know what mechanism would do that anytime soon.  I think that little snowy epoch we had for about 15 years blew itself out finally.  It’s the mid west’s turn in the barrel.

There really isn’t a strong case to be made for the next 6 days.  One can argue the LR because models show promise, but La la land is really day 6.  Or 5.  It’s like the models don’t believe the fast flow is sustained enough of the time.  

Next winter will probably repeat if you figure the pacific will remain a furnace.  I’m hedging that.  The west will do alright and Alaska cold. Could be like this for awhile ala the 80s.  

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

IIRC he scored.  Don’t think we will

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yes, last weekend north because of the reduction of blocking in ne canada like I said. Not the same thing as the situation we have here. 

Well, maybe the trend you mention...the lead vort that’s playing monkey wrench with this one...if that gets weaker as we get closer, which it appears too, does that follow your observation?  I’m not sure myself

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

There was a bunch of lows this year that looked really amped in the medium range but ended up southeast and weak closer to verification because of the fast flow a few weeks back. So I'm just failing to see these big N/NW trend this year. This doesn't mean that this storm can't still be hit the northeast of course. 

there are a couple that went from huggers to cutters. Last weekend fits the description

43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This shouldn’t really surprise anyone.  Everything has had massive NW or N shifts all winter.  The storm last weekend shifted 250 miles in the last 72 hours 

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Happens with the majority of Miller A storms.

And the old playbook of the GFS showing a good storm track in the LR, only to lose it, then it comes back in the short term.  We’ve seen this movie yet we didn’t not know how this one ends.

That last storm moved hundreds of miles in just a few model cycles before game time.  Different set up, of course.  Models were steadfast prior and a miller b cut instead.  The coast should be interested in this one at least.  Inland nasomuch.  

17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's going to show "big changes" in 2 weeks, right?

 

I’m pretty sick of that song and dance but I keep coming back.  Seriously the 18z eps just cooked up a miller b with inland runners in the mix. Might be a head fake but that’s the reason I come in here.  

MWGA.

MaWGA...

12z was meh. Tonight’s Oz may not be

Well I don’t know if sampling is what’s behind the big changes but many said now is about when to expect a big swing.  

Maybe we can make lemonade with this lemon fresh storm - 50/50 block so we can lock in the next one.  

26 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

I rather this storm go OTS honestly. I think it will bode well later on as it intensifies and it’s wave break causes a block right over GL as models have been showing off and on.

It times well with the next system. Without a block the fast flow lends credence to a fish storm so that's what's in the offing this weekend.  There isn't a whole ton of support for the snowy solution now save a couple runs here and there for this weekend.  Let the fish have at it, and we can feast on the next one.  

I was thinking 4 days is when models will home in on solutions, but they might already be homed in.  Looks whiffy.  However that last 2 events, which were never really interesting for these parts, moved in 100 mile increments right up until game time and outcomes were west and warmer.  Different scenario, but point is don’t buy anything esp. in marginal conditions until game time.  

If I had to bet, this whiffs or rains.  Too many variables have to align for the snowy solutions.

Confirm huge iguanas in Miami.  scart me half to death when I reached for a drink in my beach chair at the pool at the fountainblue and a 5 footer was quietly eating lettuce next to my chair. I know they are vegan and everything but still....yichhh.

 This was right after the kill on sight order the state issued!  

Weekend rule is in effect this winter. Uncanny.

42 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

One model that ive noticed that has been crazy consistent for a D5-8 range is the ICON, the variation its had is very low compared to every other model. 

The upstate NY forum is on that one.  It’s probably going to be dismissed until it scores some coups.

Honestly this thing isn't moving around that much on the GFS for this time lead.  1 wild pitch in there yesterday up and in, but the rest grazing the plate.  slight adjustments are all we need.  

Edit.  6z was well  outside in the dirt too.

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great disco posted by DT...should be clearer in 24-36 hours.

Ha I was just thinking about his old Weekend Rule.  That has been in play this winter a bunch of times (outcomes notwithstanding). 

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

That was written about the model a long time ago. We sure that's still the case? 

I mentioned that earlier - it might have been a real bias in the old days, or it might have been voodoo.  I'm sure there are a host of new issues with the Euro that are more "real."

It is uncanny though that we are seeing that again.   

not horrible,  GFS looks like it fringes eastern areas.  The trough is too positively tilted for a solid turn up the coast, and northern stream interaction is muted. At least its not a total whiff. 

just to add, i don't think it would take much to get more said interaction

I expect meaningful changes around Wednesday or Thursday 

Lol yes Maine gets whacked.  I would not celebrate yet if I were them.  Dr no doesn’t even sniff them

Snowfall maps are not effective at this range.  7.5 days? 2 days maybe...

its not not a world beater anyway with a 990 LP