cleetussnow

21 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Usual screw zones…

22 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's also why mass migrations happen, especially if it's connected to famine and starvation.

 

I was talking about like, the middle of the Sahara desert, the south pole, top of the Himalayas, bottom of the atlantic.  Wasnt a climate remark.  
 

most famines in the last 100 years are caused by wars and other types of political unrest such as happened in China after Mao took over.  Not commonly due to weather, not anymore. Famines are less common now than the last say, the last 200,000 years of human history thanks to technology.  

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Unfortunately the slowly boiling frog in the pot applies here. Until we see undeniable catastrophic daily events globally then most will ignore it. 

Won't be long though. With current trends we'll see multiple unlivable conditions develop in a decade or so. 

There are multiple unlivable conditions all over the world already.  Which is why people don’t live there.  Never have.  

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the lower end of that range is actually below average, so...

Both will be wrong.

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it wasn't...it was supposed to slightly more active than average.

Accuweather said 13 to 18 named.  

On 9/20/2025 at 12:10 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Overall, it's looking like we'll at least have a normal winter in general. Something we really haven't seen in several years. At least in Southern New England. 

Thats what I think.  Standard, council approved winter.  No frills but it’ll do just fine.

I was at an event thing last week in LA.  An accuweather presenter (I think their head met) there said they were sticking to 13 to 18 named storms.  But 13 storms aren’t walking through that door, much less 18.

On 9/10/2025 at 4:37 PM, FXWX said:

Once again this is wrong that it implies the SST is driving the bus!

Ok the ssts are like footprints.  Something is making the footprints - ssts depicted aren’t derived in a vacuum.  Unless they are and that’s why seasonal models utterly suck.  

Hold up.  We cancel winter on a 6 month snow map but we toss 5 day snow maps.

Got it.  

2 hours ago, rclab said:

 

 

Thankfully there are exceptions. As always ……

 

Trynna picture what happened between the 2nd and third frame lol

22 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Same story most years-most forecasts are too bullish...it's more than just warm water to fuel the storms

I think climate change has been taken into account as a factor, without the climate dynamics at play really being understood.  A bias has emerged in hurricane seasonal forecasts, which maybe works for winter forecasts 7 times in 10 and that makes sense, but hurricane seasonals have not verified 7 in 10 this century so far.  Go back to the drawing board and work out a new method is my suggestion.  This isn’t the first bust of a dramatic hurricane season prognostication.  

11 hours ago, Dark Star said:

There are many factors that go into Hurricane Season predictions, but the easiest is to assume that the ultra warm Gulf would enhance any system?  Looks like the Hurricane season predictions will be wrong 2 years in a row?

Question, and because I don’t have a clue:  why do we say warm waters =  increased hurricane activity?  Don’t we need a temp delta to generate storms, regardless of a ‘warm’ state?  Meaning - warm, normal, or cold, isn’t a big air/water temp delta the driver?  Is that true?  Hurricane seasonal forecasts have not been great over the last 25 years IIRC. 

7 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Big question is if this hurricane seasons stays this quiet. If so, then many tropical forecasts will bust. This is one of the slower starts in recent years and it still is quiet. That may change, but development looks to keep the fish busy. We will see, but so far a pleasant fall.

This was supposed to be an epic season full of majors.  Meh.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Shes got him in rear naked choke

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, even more impressive how fall lasts for 8 months now! 

Who knew summer would be reduced to 2 months.  I can tell you, no one.  

16 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Yep it was in my western sky. It was definitely bright for a split second.

I saw another tonight - north northeast of me 9:30 ish.I wasn’t really watching the sky this time but happened to catch it.  It probably is a busy sky this week if you can patiently watch.  There is a lot of light pollution up here still (Mohonk area) so star gazing is kinda disappointing generally.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Saw a shooting star about 20min ago in the western sky. 

Funny - I wonder if I saw the same one.  I am northwest of the city tonight (New Paltz area) and I saw one south and slightly east of me.  Maybe that would have appeared wnw of you.  Rather bright…showed through a thin cloud.  Maybe the same?  I’m glad you mentioned it.  

2 hours ago, metagraphica said:

81/55 CoC everywhere!!

Yeah this place is a sausage party.  At least the weather is nice!

On 8/15/2025 at 9:25 PM, MJO812 said:

Yes 

Its a boy !

Nice work

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah others tests waiting to come back. 

Bro that indeed sucks.  I’ve had 2 brushes with it down here, one back in June. Both times i got hit with em just around the neighborhood dog walking. 
 

I saw the ticks when I had a ring going, and both times I got it in time with a 2 weeks of doxie.  No lyme symptons developed so far since.  I think if you can still see the rash and you get drugs you could be alright?  Someone else can confirm.  I am not a dr.  

28 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

why should we discuss our local impacts on another subforum?

Start a thread in this forum.  Call it local impacts of climate change.  I got no problem with that.  It’s a great tropic.  I’d read it so would everyone else.
 

Tom Dick and Harry type daily weather events discussion belongs here. Rain next week, dry pattern this month, ice storm, hurricane, that sort of thing.  All that stuff should be here.  Septembers getting warmer over the years, warm anomalies increasing in February over the years should be there.  That way you can be quantitative and say Septembers are getting warmer and heres the data.  Example:  If it’s modeled to be 89 on September 12, that is a pattern development for the September thread.  You don’t want to say it’s hot on September 12 because of climate change if it turns out it’s 41 on September 14th.  Wouldn’t want to say climate change has reversed in 2 days.  This is conflating 2 dynamics.  
 

All good my friend. 

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

winter related username doesn't like climate change talk, many such cases

My user name is a character in a movie, who is pictured in my sig.  

I go to the climate change thread all the time.  You should check it out. 

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

why shouldn't we talk about our disappearing winters and lengthening summers?

Theres a whole forum for that.  Thats a great place to discuss 30 year averages all over the place, not just here.  You could link those discussions here anytime.  Too many posts here about a warm day or a string of warm days this year are the fault of man made global warming especially this year, when we have 1 really above normal month since December.  It’s just thin gruel in the context of the weather.  

global climate writ large, thats the right place because this is a hot year on a global scale.  It’s just not that hot here this year in extremis over the last 40.  So lets keep it to weather.

5 hours ago, 8611Blizz said:

Lock it up! 

 

The worst of winter is us sobbing over the inland runners and cutters.

4 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This may come as a shock to some people...but I just read that The Farmer's Almanac is calling for a long, cold and snowy winter!

You beat MJO to it, but I think even he is skeptical.  
 

I’m thinking of buying a snowmobile again.  If that happens we’re fucked.  You can set your watch to that.