cleetussnow

8 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

The funny thing about CC is that everyone expects it to create more extremes with the weather, but in actuality this is not always the case. If anything it seems like CC is moderating our climate. I mean, look at the 1970s. That was probably one of the most extreme decades in the weather database for heat, cold, and snow. PVD's third coldest ever temperature of -13F on 01/23/76. How about their 30 degree positive departure on 04/19/76, when PVD hit 98F? Or 08/02/75 when PVD reached an insane 104F with a dewpoint of 77F? Not only did that day have all-time record heat but also absurd dew point readings. What about the once in a 500 year snowstorm on 05/09/77 that dropped 7.0" in PVD? That decade also had some insane 24 hour temperature drops. 02/02/76 went from 51F to 5F and if you want to include Christmas 1980 just for the heck of it since it was close to the 70s, PVD went from 35F to -10F that day. Not to mention the blizzard of 78 of course during that decade. Why were the 1970s in particular so extreme around here and we haven't broken these records since then?

Further to this, warm periods in human history tend to coincide with periods of prosperity.  Interestingly and not unsurprisingly, we are in a relative period of prosperity going by population growth.  If humankind had to choose between a warming climate and a cooling one, and I mean humans across the eons, most humans would choose warming.  Most of human (talking homo sapiens sapiens here) history was cooler/cold compared to now with significant ice age periods.  There is 1 period in human history where temps were as warm or warmer than now, about 125,000 years ago.   I'm not saying CC is a good thing or anything, I'm just saying other options aren't as 'good' for prosperity.  I don't see a lot of climate periods that are just flatline temps for long periods.  I think humans will adapt to the new climate regime and ultimately reduce carbon emissions over the next 100 years, but the cost of removing carbon will basically make that a non starter.  A lot of carbon emissions are the result of heating in the northern climes, so maybe defacto we need less of that.  My heating bills are lower - though my heat is carbon neutral.  

40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Is there anything more boring than CC talk

Well I am enjoying trying to figure out which emoji to slap this post with, which is more fun than most of this winter.  

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

could be wrong...thought I had come across something recently that it was one of their coldest to. 

It's pretty cold:  

Anchorage sets new record low as dangerous cold sticks around (alaskasnewssource.com)

54 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That ship has sailed...

…12,000 years ago it sailed. Humans evolved 200,000 yrs ago, and the planet was pretty cold!  Lots of ‘96 analogs in there.
 

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

The euro sniffed it out 10 days ago. For some reason they get worse inside 72 hours

Yeah and its like how should we reconcile that? WAS the Euro good?  Was it right? 

A smidge over 9 inches here in central Westchester with this thing winding down.  I'll take a storm like this one anytime.  Siggy snow but my life will be normal by tomorrow.  Maybe we can freshen this up in the next week and have some pack around.  Nice!

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

It's going to be a photo finish at the wire for 1 foot here in Mt Pleasant.   I'll go measure but I think we are over 9 ATT.  

This is fabulous.

Measured 9 even just now.  

9 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

I seem to be pretty close to where you’re at. 

It's going to be a photo finish at the wire for 1 foot here in Mt Pleasant.   I'll go measure but I think we are over 9 ATT.  

This is fabulous.

8 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Ripping snow here definitely going to exceed 6" here.

I have all of that already and more north of HPN in Hawthorne.  I could get to a foot.  NWS says 5 to 9 for today, which brings me to possibly 13.  Anything over 10 and I'm thrilled but already happy with it.

11 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

There's some revisionist history going on.

The gfs like the euro had this storm wrong for days on end, over a hundred miles north of where it is now. I don't know why you would celebrate any model in this situation.

If it's just because you are giddy that it's snowing, then you do you.

Not entirely fair…yesterday the Euro utterly shit the bed while the GFS held steady.  That was less than 24 hrs ago.  Yesterdays 12z Euro hardly looks anything like the storm happening outside now.  A fail like that inside 24 hrs is more than a blemish.

53 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I just looked at my local forecast from the weather channel and it says updated at 620 am and is calling for 3-5 and I already am over 4 inches,,,so I am not sure what they are looking at as I will be over 5 very soon

My wsw is for 6.  I have 4 OTG, and NWS forecasting 4 to 8 more on point and click.

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

So I'm 20 miles north of 84 in western Dutchess county and NWS Albany still has a winter storm warning for a total of 4-8 inches. They also haven't updated a storm briefing from 4am today. Are they smoking something? I'm thinking 1-3/2-4 max . I would love to know they are thinking. 

My point and click still has 7 to 13 in mid Westchester. Warning was lowered to 6.  We won’t touch either.  I suspect the update at like 3 am, waiting until the 0z suite rolls in to confirm everything.  

The New England melt is reaching a fever pitch.  I think some will be melting in this forum right through tomorrow.  These moves are dramatic for this late in the game.  

Nam for sure bumped SE.  The 287 crew loses out this one. 

Lets enjoy the wintry weather through the weekend, then call it a season.  This winter stinks.  

Maybe the seasonal trend will kick this thing back north.  Oh wait.

South and weaker on TTB - but doesn't *look* as dramatic south as the Euro through hr18.

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

A quick note on the short-range ECMWF and GFS: there is statistically no difference in skill between the two models at one day or less from an event.

Can say the same for the Ukie

Also I thought the Ukie scores pretty well - comparable to the GFS.  2 top models in agreement is more than spooky.  

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Sensitive interactions from the northerly NAM/GFS/HRRR to the southerly models (EC) that do not match the just issued WPC 17z/12 D1 QPF.  Also, the WPC snow amount probs are quite high N of I80. So, as someone said, spooky-unsettling but we 've got to go with as smart a forecast we can. 

 

How about the SPC HREF: Yikes.  Huge.  One thing I see is that banding should be pretty large Poconos through nw NJ se NYS-CT-BOS near and just of I84 per 12z/12 NAM HRRR and HREF.   Again though its your modeling of choice. 

It's hard to discount the Euro wholesale.  It's been south a couple of times over the last few days of model cycles only to recover northerly.  On those occasions, the EPS held steady.  THIS time the EPS followed suit south.  THAT concerns me.  

GFS just jacked me.  Fapulous. 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rap

Fap.

Solid gfs run.  Axis of heavy snow jacks NW.