cleetussnow

1 minute ago, Greg g said:

I have a flight on Tuesday morning from Orlando at 7;30 landing at LaGuardia around 10:00,.. do you think I’ll still be on time or delayed or..??

Can’t know for sure, but I’d call the airline and try to get in monday night if you can.  Less hassle. But call soon before everyone gets the same idea.

That is fantastic

GFS improved a tad again

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I still wonder how so many here don’t know where Tolland is on a map lol

IKR?  I mean you see it from anywhere

1 minute ago, milleand said:

NAM LOL 

You can’t shovel the NAM.  This is THAT run.  

this one is cooked but I don’t think there’s anyone left who thinks otherwise.  Albany ho!  

Is there a 18z euro snowmap or rainmap

4 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Understood. the post is more about the new euro being inferior to the GFS. I still find it hard to believe but I guess it's true..

I think many here would like to have the old euro back.  Dr. No.

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

That's just wrong...

Waaaay too early to discount a north trend, especially since the GFS is also trended north, though not as dramatic.  The storm sure can resolve 100 miles more dramatic, and the GFS can do that on its own whim.  

Just now, NEG NAO said:

More bad news the 18Z GFS out to sea total miss for next weekend

Plenty of time for this to cut through BGM

Little better

3 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

it looks like its for the NW interior not all of NE NJ

I’m in westchester and I got the same thing.  Cut it in half.  

Heres the PD3 rainer:  this will go over the top of NYC with that high position and congrats buffalo.

Seasonal trend I don’t believe in.  Model trends around 1 system I DO believe in. Nothing is really preventing this being a complete rainer up to I 84 and perhaps further and there is plenty of time for that to manifest.

Icon FTW. And I owe NAO an apology.  

this small move north means a lot for the metro and now even N/W.  More of that and its white rain for many.  On to the Euro.

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully this is the one where we make it happen and deny the usual late north push. But I’d way rather be in Boston or along I-84 to 90. If the confluence is real and does its job it can work, but we know what the odds favor. 

Agree re late north push.  This isn’t unusual, in fact its fairly regular.  Nevermind that, just generally the last 36 hrs seem to have larger swings than we would see at this range.  Locked isn’t a thing.

53 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Last night some were saying 12-16 from this. Lol That was never possible to begin with due to how fast this is moving. Overall looks like a moderate impact system. 6-10 widespread.

Kuchie euro just dropped a 20 burger on my head.  12 is not impossible.  

33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so you agree with the 0Z EURO amounts ? We should have a forum snow amount contest - we used to do that back in the old days...

Yeah fire up a snow total thread with like 10 stations listed and everyone enters their ideas.  Been awhile since we did this.

Is there a sign up sheet?  I’m in.  

Nice storm.  Hi MJO.  

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's what I'm doing right now. 

Ukie 

That dern seasonal trend rearing its ugly he…oh wait no.

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's like a morgue in this thread. 

Your the only cop around clean it up.  Lol.

I get the whole ‘this winter sucks so this storm will suck’ mentality.  But that is not how any of this works.  Persistence as a forecast tool is not a thing and well argued in these forums.  Fluid dynamics are not governed by ‘persistence’ nor are models.  
 

Emotions are great.  We love weather.  But neither will help making a forecast.  Models will.  Use THOSE to guide you.

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

we are over 3 days away - watch and see....Walt isn't saying much - enough said...

ICON scores a coup?  Cuz thats what your saying

here go hump it

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

because its too warm at the start and the seasonal trend so far this year

Bro ain’t no seasonal trend on that map and thats what we are talking about.  

Thats for the city and its snow.