cleetussnow

The Euro would be out to the 11th - how's it look? 

It's possible that one biggie can get a lot of stations close to normal and we saw that during the 'snowy epoch' since the mid 90s.  2006 comes to mind where a single storm did that, and that was mid Feb.  I haven't looked at the data in awhile but it seems we don't tend to get like six 5-inch storms to get to normal for CPK.  Also, we don't normally just land on 'normal;' instead we do something like 15" or 45" and it averages out to normal ~30" over time.  And when we get above normal, we get a couple biggies in it.  

I'm hoping we do get that big storm magic while the pattern is good, but I'm on the record for a ratter.  It will still take some luck on timing even in a good pattern.  Good patterns can absolutely fail to deliver.  

In case anyone wants to see

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

How come there aren’t radio shows anymore? 

I would love it. I remember the shows with DT raleighwx, marcus, some other people.  Lets do this.  We can use zoom or hop on discord.  

7 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

I don't! Makes the hobby way easier. Don't have to spend all that time aligning and pointing the telescope at objects - point it wherever and the view is the same! Can even use them inside if I want. You guys would be amazed at the utter blackness of space.

You are a good poster. The other new guy too.  You should change your name to Starman.  Group?  What do you think?

17 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Don't like to see this

'Pandemic of snow' in Anchorage sets a record for the earliest arrival of 100 inches of snow (yahoo.com)

 

Usually great up there, means not so great here but there's time to turn things around.

So ‘pandemic’ is the new apocalypse. Got it.

37 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Dry weather and clear skies means astronomy time!

How do you see anything with the black thing on your head?

Just now, dendrite said:

You need to be Usain Bolt to beat Moonshine to the weenie d15 image

I deleted it after spending 5 seconds looking back in the thread cuz yeah.  

22 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

What's worse is my wife never buys what I'm selling even though I've been proven right numerous times. Her go to for weather is Matt Noyes

Same!  My wife had a secret weather blog she went to after reading my weather reports to compare forecasts.  She never trusted mine until Sandy.  I had to earn it, I guess.  

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

That’s the event I’m craving, a nice coastal northeast nuke. 6-10 would do nicely if something like that were in the cards. Doesn’t have to be a HECS. Let’s just get a nice broad untainted hit. Would be fun to track and then experience, and lift a lot of spirits. Hopefully something like that is plausibly in the pipeline for that mid - late month window. Would be yet another waste of a pattern and ultimately a waste of the Niño if not. 

I think a lot on here would sign up for a 6-10 region-wide deal in trade for more winter thereafter.  Let's get one and we can wrap it up and call it a season.  

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Doesn’t matter in this context since 2 inch soil temps are around freezing across most of MA (a bit below in higher terrain). You’re not gonna melt really anything bottom-up with that. If it was still in the high 30s to low 40s then you would. 
 

Pretty much all melting once past very early winter is going to come from top-down…once ground is exposed nearby then you’ll get lateral assist…esp as sun angle increases and heats the exposed sfc nearby. 

There it is.  First legit sun angle mention.  

47 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Impressive to think models are advertising 10+ days rain free as we head into February. 

That won’t verify.

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I haven't felt this taxed and defeated in a long time. Just an all around shit feeling. Enjoy the snow...those that got it. I probably would take the day off and just walk around in the snow, should that day ever come this year. 

It feels like it will never snow again - which is silly, but 2 years of this, and this year possibly being worse than the last...  yeah, feels permanent.  

I think as of today it’s not unreasonable to call it a ratter given whats in the near term.  I don’t think anyone should be chided for throwing it in.  Hitting peak climo in the position we are in…Winter never had a chance.

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully we can get a big event late Feb to avoid another total rusty coat hanger.

Rusty pipe winter here.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2007.

@Typhoon TipTip said in the Fall of 2005 that the winter of 05/06 would not be a good one, but said given the pattern (whatever it was), some stations could get their seasonal average all in one storm.  Which CPK did on Feb. 11.  

I may be the only person that remembers that call, but it was the best winter prediction I ever saw.

I'd take VDIII.  

(I *think we had 2 VD storms, one all the way back in Feb 2006 and one before that even?)

15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

No. It's a case of "I'm an imbecile and didn't look at surrounding obs."

Time well wasted.

 

But don't worry. You're in great company!

 

How are you not 5 post limited?  There are a lot of jerk posts on here but some of yours certify you as a gold star assh*le.  

You are That Guy - the turd in the punchbowl.  

33 here, light winds out of the southwest...  

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

January thaw time ?

I suppose we always new it would come at some point this winter.  Regular feature of mid winter lately.  I don’t see a cold shot on ensembles in the east for a couple of weeks or more - Canada is going to get warm again.  Source region isn’t cold.  We may do some April temps a couple of times.

snow midtown.  very light

Punt

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The southern CT snow hole has taken the place of the RI snow hole of the past ..  You hate to see it, but it's real.. 

The snowhole jacks me.  Lovely.  

Doorman!  

15 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Looks pretty good - better than the OP?  I kind of extrapolated precip on the GEFS and it looked more robust than the op.  I don't have the whole GFS suite to look at, so it's just what's on TTB.