cleetussnow

No cold air = increasing chances of a ratter wall to wall.  

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Where was camp? Yeah, I may make that trek a time or two, When i was younger, NBD, But as i am older i only have to travel 1-1.5 hrs for good snow and now go during the week with less people out on the trails and fresh tracks with free stay where i ride.

I live 45 mins north of NYC. 4 yrs ago,  I used to have a camp in Old Forge, but it got crowded and dangerous, so I moved to Perkinsille, VT.  Figured I could or trailer or ride  from there.  No snow and my son’s schedule limiting everything, we bailed after 1 season.  I’ve had sleds for 20 yrs, not including when I was a kid.  I am not missing it at all.

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would probably think differently if i had a long travel to get to decent riding but that's me, Its not the case though, I'm usually not that far away to travel to snow.

I have to drive at least 4 hrs.  

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Correct, I don't care if it snows in my BY i don't ride here anymore due to a 1-2 week window the last several years, The pack is needed for riding to cover up obstacles in the trails like rocks and roots, etc,etc A couple of 7-9:1 mash potato storms in the 3-6"/4-8"+ range with some cold and off we go.

I sold my sleds trailer and camp 2 yrs ago. Best decision I made in a long time. 

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still don't see anything to get excited about in terms of storms...while that certainly could change, I previously stated that I will not be suprised if we waste early January and need to wait until late month, beyond the reshuffle/thaw.

I am seeing punts everywhere.  No scoring, just punts out of FG range.  We could have a pattern flip for a couple weeks late Jan early feb garbage time, then back to warm.  

Wtf you talking about?  You get 5 days of trough ahead of it

30 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Right where we want it, in the old days anyway.

Merry Christmas!

31 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Here is the problem as I see it. While we've experienced lots of precipitation due to the almost tropical moisture accompanying storms which have hooked to our west our cold or modified cold outbreaks have been extremely transient and very short-lived. And when it's cold, it's dry. Storms are major super-moist lots of intensity with high winds and flooding and occur about every 7-10 days. Even though precip amounts are way above normal, it is NOT a stormy pattern historically for late December going into January. A stormy pattern over this time is an event every 3 days. When was the last time we got significant precipitation from a storm sliding under us with a cold HP to the north or n/w?? There are some red flags waving for the likelihood of the cold snowy winter forecasts most outlets have come up with. Even today's better looking maps which tend to be over 300 hours away do not show a ridge out west. Yes there's the split flow, but there's never cold HP locked in place when a low moves into the Plains and towards the east. Rather HP slides east of New England the low pressure curves northward and we are doused with heavy rain. I think this pattern of cold/dry alternating with warmer/wet will probably last into mid January at least and maybe longer. Then you look back at late starting winters here. Which ones are memorable? 1978 is the most notable. But I gotta say, there was fierce cold air pouring into the northeastern U.S. that year from November 1977 into December 1977 with several nights dropping well into the teens. We are struggling to get temperatures into the 20s this year. I'm just uncertain that what we'd like to see is going to happen this time.

WX/PT

Theres no real cold on our side of the earth.  How that changes or when is unclear to me. I see the 300 hr maps and all but those are theoretical.  Nothing really convincing is developing. 

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

If this was Monopoly and we drew that as a chance card it would read, "Ride the Wave Train to snowier times. If you pass go, take your trolling ass out of here" 

Help me out here:  Big trough in the east going into January should be a cold in the east.  Good snow producing pattern.  That's what I expect to see.  But when I look at the surface, it's warm at the coast, and not particularly cold inland.  Probably mid-day temps at the coast in the 40s.  Weak sauce cold air source in Canada is the culprit no? 

13 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Take the bullshit somewhere else. Stick to the weather.

You heard the man!  To the New England Forum!!!!

On 12/19/2023 at 9:56 AM, forkyfork said:

i hope the ski industry collapses

In 2023, during massive El Niño fueled winter storms, South American ski resorts were hammered with record breaking snow and a ski season extending into November. 

Resorts such as Las Leñas in Argentina and Hotel Portillo in Chile reported a series of snow storms dropping upwards of 8-14 feet of snow per event.

Hope never lets us down.  

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not buying a cold and snowy January, for a few reasons. Top of my list….the ridiculously low (record low actually) snowcover and arctic sea ice on our side of the pole and the fact that all the arctic cold is locked over in Eurasia. I don’t buy the long range models which are already correcting warmer. And lastly, come the 1st week of January, we are going to see competing forcing….a strong MJO wave moving into the IO and the very strong El Niño standing wave….this leads me to believe we very well may see an RNA pattern develop mid-late month, not on the level of last December’s RNA, but -PNA none the less. I also believe the PAC jet will verify stronger than the models are showing. Got to give credit to @bluewavefor always pointing out the models underestimating the PAC jet in the long range. February is an entirely different matter and I’m still thinking that month produces, for now….
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agree. 1 snowy month, if things go right.  Canada is not cold.  Hard to get snow in a +3 degree temp anomaly in these parts as December demonstrates.   When will the cold cycle down from Canada is anyones guess and yes I know its modeled in the LR but lets get it inside the mid range at least.  

35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t think people realize that when you LR forecast, you are going to be wrong more than you’re right. just the way it is 

a lot of the people that troll don’t even really make any calls, either. they just bump troll

regardless the change to a better pattern is still moving up in time. don’t really see any changes there

I see you are on fire in this thread...but...bh. The bold there. How can that be?  Shall I just fade all of the LR forecasts and be right more than wrong?  That is what success would look like.  Not much of a forecast if it's worse than a coin flip. 

A lot of people in here are disbelievers in the LR forecasts and models until they see the whites of the snowflakes.  I myself am coming around to the year-end changes but my faith in anything past day 10 is very limited for good reason, and that may be that you are somewhat correct:  Long range is more often wrong than right.  So, in that case, the skeptics are on the right side of the trade, no? That would be rational.  

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Doesn’t look like very good snowmaking weather either. We’re on to 2024

Especially on Venus!  

13 minutes ago, Layman said:

 

Imagine what the Venusian ski industry was like before the collapse.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/venus-was-like-earth-until-climate-change-uninhabitable/ 

They should have switched to solar.  Those poor people.  

35 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Only 10 more days until our next threat. New Year's Grinch?

Blech

Punt type winter in the offing until I see something inside of 10. Right now it appears to be outside the 20.  

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

6z gfs has another slow moving Rainer to canadas on the 28th

Keep rolling and there are 2 more.  No sign of winter on the op run.  Tenor of the season I’m afraid.

31 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I'd love it

 

CT river valley jacks.  
 

This looks like shit:  

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No we aren't 

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I would tend to agree that the Pacific Jet IS the cause of our warmer weather here in the Northeast.  As long as that is persistent, it will result in warmth in our area, and probably lack of cold air into Canada.  I guess we could argue the ancient Chicken and Egg controversy?  We will continue to see "colder signals" constantly postponed, until it is March, with perhaps an occasional ebb where some cold air will reach the NYC area.  

We are already seeing can kicking.  It seems like once that starts, it persists.  We are already talking a month push back on any favorable pattern.  Yeah, then it's Spring, or supposed to be, when the PV splits.  

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha!   Nah I just think if we actually had something worthwhile to redirect our attention. It might bleed a little bit more interest back into this engagement.  Ive just grown tired of the seasonal outlooks and weeklies … and extended this and that … kicking cans.  It just gets exhausting.  

Totally.  Its like rooting for a bad football team early in the season and thinking this is the year if….and then the season depends on a heap of ifs and buts and thats as good as ever gets.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I was heartbroken over that seen when I was a kid.  

Public schools strike again.  Damn.