cleetussnow

45 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I'm talking more about the general capitol district. Places like Latham, Colonie, Clifton Park, Saratoga are nice places to live. 

Got married in Saratoga.  Another decent gem.  

13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I put the upstate cities along with Ohio… cloudy kind of depressing their best days are behind them. The Adirindacks have charm because they are spectacular. 

 

I almost got a knifed in Albany on that one nice street they have with cafés. Syracuse and Rochester are just kind of burnt out and bad. Buffalo has a few nice blocks they redid. 

 

These are not places you want to live. even if you like snow that same thing that brings them snow in the winter makes some very cloudy and overcast and cool on many days when it’s sunny and beautiful down here in the spring and fall

Yeah I'm from Upstate.  I went to Binghamton for school.  Worst town ever.  On the other hand, I love the finger lakes, Ithaca and Watkins Glen.  I also love the Adirondacks, and I had a camp there.  The state is beautiful most of the year.  But because of the governance or lack thereof, the state has fallen on hard times, going on decades now.  The upstaters have no voice in Albany and their towns are a mess - crime, poverty, drugs, and urban decay are in every corner of upstate.  Sad.  The government they need is not the same as the downstate epicenter.  Industry and farming are dead and dying and there is no such thing down here so no one cares.  I would retire in upstate if it were governed properly but it can never be, so away we go.  I've always said Upstate is wasted in New York.  Shameful.

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Definitely 

My dream place

My son's hoping to wind up with the 10th Mountain at Fort Drum.  I think mostly because it's up there frankly.

Fading...7th inning here down a few runs

Can’t count on a boxing day modeling scenario.  Agree with Walt.  Not much interesting coming our way.

if we were looking for a mostly dry and clear weekend, we have a lot of model consensus for that, so a single model showing something else shouldn’t dissuade us for thinking we get that dry and clear weekend.  Flip our frame of mind and then you can see what the models are really telling us.  

Trending to euro for sure.  If euro doesn’t come around by 12z, the gfs will cave in

Looks like a cave

Rollng now

Is the gfs stuck

edit: its slow

1 minute ago, North and West said:

STOP THE COUNT!


.

Kuchie?

7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Crazy how OKX/BOX doesnt even have a mention of snow in the grids and zones. At this point you gotta be at least 30-40% pops i would i think. Not that it matters i just found it interesting they're like 0% 

Humpin the Euro.

actually better.  Amazing

4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Conus flow of yore

word.  I edited to add the link to the 500mb all the way through in case people want to compare per Pope.

58 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This reminds me of blizzard of 96 but more south/east - due to more confluence over the northeast. I referenced this pattern about a 12 days ago, and it's here...ready to deliver...

I think you're in a good spot at this lead time based on latest guidance. So is the inside 95 crew of new england. North of there, yea, odds fall off fast but I'd be watching closely up to the pike.

 

 

Here's 96

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-500MillibarMaps.html

All panels

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Is that a euphemism?

I see what you did there...

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed. I am internally excited right now but waiting another 24 hours before I get overly excited. Probably better to wait until Wednesday to do that but all the pieces are there...its just about the timing. 

Yeah externally excitement arrives 00z Euro

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

if this is the set up the trend could be north, yes?  is this a miller a?  or a b with a late insert to tug it up?

@Typhoon Tip says Miller D, maybe like a hybrid,  A's aren't really phasers but I say A.  A storm emerges from the Gulf with plenty of power is my argument.

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think we lose this one...the N stream shitting the bed is BS.

It was soo stable for a few days too

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

It needs a lot more than “a little”

just need to catch the phase. Not so easy but what we want to see rn

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder that too. I would love to explore model verification scores more and understand the process. I feel like it has to be exceedingly difficult to truly assess model performance and equate that to a particular score because of how complex this is. When you see the graphs comparing model performance at like H5...what is it that explicitly measuring? Is it averaging like observed H5 globally compared to model forecast globally at a particular time? But say one model is handling H5 great overall, but it is weaker in a particular part of the world versus another area where a model with a lower score did better in the area the model with the higher score did...? 

Honestly there are too many variables for my pea brain to digest. Someone might have knowledge here and I'm sure @Typhoon Tip has given this thought.

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If it nails it that will be pretty impressive, but we're going to want to see AI become extremely consistent with nailing storms, otherwise all it is going to do is just add to the uncertainty when there is large model spread. But it also has to go beyond just nailing storms, it needs to be consistent with the evolution of all these features and how the features are interacting. For example, lets say it is OTS because of a lack of phasing and the storm does end up going OTS...well in a sense it was correct with the OTS, however, if there was phasing, just a bit too late which still resulted in an OTS track...well then it was not technically correct. While it had the correct solution, the reasoning was incorrect. 

I wonder how model statistics handle false positives. Like you said - right for the wrong reasons. Its a pestilence in finance. 

19 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I would feel better burning it with snow on the ground...probably close to using 2 cords so far along with a quarter tank of oil....definitely ahead of my burning schedule

I’m already through 2 tons of wood pellets.  I’m not going to make it with 5 unless we blowtorch a couple of weeks which can happen.  I used a touch of oil but thats fine since oil isn’t super expensive.  Pellets rather expensive covid compared to so I’m not saving all that much anymore.  

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 06Z euro is pretty much what I anticipated this storm would do which is just slide out and maybe not even be a major threat for Richmond or Raleigh.  But a high percentage of the ensembles at least still want to have this come up the coast 

Tomorrow we will know despite what todays runs show, though we could whiff all the rest of the way since the runs last night. 18z yesterday - like I said, is probably the last run with a coastal we see.  I’m not out yet, but within the next 28 hrs I’ll  know one way or the other.

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Rain is never off the table 6 days out for us.  

Not this set up.  Taint maybe. Inland runner not happening.

125 miles.  All we need for the metro