cleetussnow

1 minute ago, tornadojay said:

Hi.

man this is a decent looking ensemble.  

I expect this to jump around a lot as we get closer to 48 hrs, even 36 hrs just like the NWS Boston suggest.  I feel like this has happened a lot over the few years with coastals.  

Anyone look at EPS?  I imagine not good since no one has mentioned it.  This winter.  

I think the NW trend is real and isn't going away.  GFS -> Euro, same direction.

great run for metro and esp. N/W.  New England forum will be happy (er).

Edit:  Came too north for Metro - changes to rain.  Jumped the gun.

Nice GFS run.  Likely to change and there will be a lot of different looks this week run to run.  We may not know many specifics until inside 48.  

Ok so 1/7 looking good, then washout, but at least 1 storm is looking good inside day 10.  I don’t care if the 10th washes is out.  It will be cold for awhile after the monster cutter, so maybe we can get something while we have a trough in the east.

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one knows. It’s never been used or heard of 

If anyone would know, our very own Tip would. Tip?  

22 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

If we all just accept that December is a fall month and that winter is January to March 15, then we’ll all be better off mentally. 

Jury out on January 

Just now, jbenedet said:

I’d get excited about a comeback if the warm/wet storms weren’t so goddamn warm. 

I mean, the calendar won’t help us when it’s been 5-10 degrees above freezing, generally. You need wholesale changes. 

You overlay what has happened storm-wise (take a mean) at peak winter climo and it’s still trash.

Maybe this changes in a month, but right now the persistence forecast is near as bad as it gets for winter-weather.

Months ago the talk was this winter can’t be worse than last winter.  That theory is being tested.  

There is one BN day on the 15 day gfs op.  1.  

This winter sucks. 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lots of voodoo logic going on here.  

Wheres the voodoo in ‘I believe it when I see it?’

Here is a couple of pictures of bigfoot:

this one is my personal fav:

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well that’s fine.  But sometimes it doesn’t snow in a good pattern.  And sometimes it snows in bad patterns. 

For me I want to be in the midst of a cold pattern, then any storms in the models are more credible.  The cold will bolster my confidence.  

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As long as you guys are clear and square on the fact that the models can be right about the pattern change, and we may still not get snow. 

In other words, snow does not adjudicate whether the pattern change forecast’ was successful or not. 

I actually just had this convo with my son.  He has a snow removal contract side gig with his friends and he wanted to know when its going to get cold.  I said give it a couple weeks but cold does not equal snow.

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think this post says a lot.. especially the last sentence . The majority of posters here , myself included, are in doubt of the pattern change and models being wrong once again. It’s just hard to buy in when they’ve basically been wrong for several years running.  The whites of the eyes need to be seen . If and when that happens .. that’s what most people need to see.

Solidly in this camp myself.  I feel like the models in the LR are just artwork.  The only reason they might verify is because it happens to be winter.  Theres a bunch of artwork in this very thread and I reposted one for illustrative purposes.  But right now we got nothing else to look at.  Its like not having a girlfriend so you rifle through the latest Playboy (pornhub for you youngins).  But Ms. January 2015 ain’t walking through that door.

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm really close to cancel winter 

15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No signs of any pattern change for the next two weeks.

I remember when I was first started looking at model maps, too.

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The Winter is already a punt. Cruising towards AN temps and BN snow. Questions are: do we get a few snow events or one snow event? Are any of those a blockbuster like 2016?

We've already punted past a few pattern-change dates.  Until we actually are in the midst of one, I am a skeptic.  

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

DT on board 

Kiss of death.  

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

So there was a lot of talk about the pattern flipping to much better after the new years. We still on schedule for that? 

Punted.