cleetussnow

55 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Meine hund. With his holiday hassenpfeffer.

Don't get between a Siberian and his prey. 

Jack London stuff right there

Here is Bart helping me do weather forecasts.  

We are tracking amplitude.  Its just not the same.  I'd like to see the large scale look within 8 days and across products.  At the same time, and maybe this has no place in weather, but some mean reversion argues for a flip this month (along with climo.)  

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There's been a slow but steady trend for the Atlantic to become better the past few runs of EPS. 

Is there a way to see 11-15 day EPS maps free or are those only paid access? Sorry if this has been asked trillions of times.  

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure if anyone has it past D10 for free....not that I think it's a huge loss though because even the EPS isn't hugel skilled in the 11-15. But it's usually more right than the GEFS. FWIW, the GGEM ensembles agree with the EPS. GEFS has been showing much less ridging out west than the EPS.

Here's a few plots from D12-15

 

Looks like suppression won't be the problem. But I feel like the amplitude will be more muted than this, and fast flow continues.  

9 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

The dude had almost 400 total yards and a TD.... stop putting all the blame on Allen. Did you not see the collapse by the defense in the entire 2nd half? Josh played far from perfect and made some boneheaded plays but you people criticizing him like he’s EJ Manuel is ridiculous. Dude gives it his all each and every game and yes sometimes it can cost us (that fumble that led to the HOU FG) but I’d take him over 75% of the QB out there right now. He needs a few more pieces around him next year and I guarantee Josh  will be much better.

Every defense film room in the league is going to play the almost sack of Watson in overtime when camps open in the summer.  Even a top defense needs to remember to wrap players up.  Elite players forgot that in the uttermost clutch moment....the defense owns this loss not Allen.  

Allen has upside and so do the bills.  

5 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

That game was just like our winter. Started out great and then took a big dump. Allen is my guy but come on man...

Don’t blame him.  The play calling was very poor in the second half.  The defense also contributed biggly.  I thought he was poised for a 2nd year guy.

pattern sucks.  

11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Be interesting to see if the NAM has a clue (probably not) radar starts to "backfill" as the systems phase off the coast..

Trying o decide to go to old forge for some riding.  This will matter.

Thanks Wolfie for the pivotal maps.  I need to use those and not the limited ttb maps.  

19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Overall the euro looked pretty good..

Synoptic potential the 4th-5th, 7th, 11th with lake effect in between. 

I can’t help but notice the torch and rain on day 9.  Things can change but it’s a repeating scenario.

At least this isn’t a huge Rainer and 50s.  

Welp.  Back to the panic room for a couple days.  

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I think it's a impossibility to expect a relatively high resolution model (13 km) to lock in a solution for days on end or even run to run. Increased resolution can lead to increased variability in models. It's why we preach focusing on the larger scale features (i.e. jet, heights, etc), they are more likely to be stable than smaller scale features (i.e. QPF -> snow).

There is value in knowing that there is a storm (of some kind) in the first place.  Despite the variable details across the various models, that's huge as it is. Of course we need specifics for our practical weather but we need other skill for that.  And that's the fun part...Humans!  ;-)  

59 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol at the superstition, I started the one on the 30th-31st on the 26th and that one worked out fine.

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

lol at the superstition, I started the one on the 30th-31st on the 26th and that one worked out fine.

It’s bad luck to be superstitious. 

Happy new year!

Happy new year!

25 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Man, I gotta move to the Tugjob Plateau for a couple winters. That's just sick.

It’s a worth a chase.  I have a camp up there.  

Just now, Hazey said:

I hate to say it but the German was kinda first to sniff out this flattening trend. I’ve been following this system for a few days now since I wasn’t in the game for much wintery weather out of the current storm. Every model can find a nut at some point.

Yeah saw that and then the gfs went in that direction as well.  The trends are colder and that sort of started last night.  Interesting.

12 z Gfs is trying to slip east.  Not there yet, but trends are slightly less cutty. 

I am so glad I got some riding in before Christmas.  200 miles.  You go when there is snow.  

Keeping an eye on day 6. Not expecting too much but there are a few ways it can snow synoptically or LE or both.  I’ll worry about the LR later.  Track what’s coming next.  

22 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

12Z op GFS looks pretty uninspiring thru mid January. More wet than white, synoptically.  Probably a stray inch or two of lake snow in there somewhere, for here. Basically, a lost month shaping up.

Hard to ride the gfs OP long term.  Euro shows some promise but that said I agree that January isn’t going to produce much except cuts.  Teles argue for that.  We shall see what things look like in 10 days, but expectations low here.  

Making plans for Park City.  Screw this.  

GFS cuts January 6th situation.  Long way out though and it’s the GFS.  

Figured I’d just show myself in and take a seat.  Not feeling good about the pattern for the next 2 weeks.  It’s the 80s again.

44 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Was that the one when NCEP said to disregard the GFS because of some glitch?

Yep. I remember that.  

But also remember that from 7 days out there were GFS and Euro solutions that were all over the storm, and then it flattened out to nothing on the models.  I remember because at 6 days I was honking to all my friends about this major storm, and I sent an email to like 50 people. Then the models backed off, but I was too busy at work to cancel the storm. So when it came around again and dropped 17 inches on us, everyone thought i could see around corners.  I never copped to it.  

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Was it the 12z GFS 9 years ago that started disrobing some weenies? I know it was a screw job in many areas, but that was a hell of a storm. Boxing Day.

One of my favorite storms.  I think the disrobing was the on the 23rd 0z gfs.  The gfs got there first and the euro came around by 12z.  One local met, Janice Huff on the 23rd, called for 2 inches while nick Gregory started honking in one of the first times I recall our NY local Mets mentioning models.  

35 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I was noticing that on the 12z run today when the 528dm line made an appearance in deep Florida.  Definitely the first time I've ever seen anything like that; even if its 300hrs out.  I guess thats the way you get snow in Southern Florida which has supposedly happened a couple times over US history.

 

Such a scenario would work wonders on the invasive species problem, namely pythons and iguanas.  I have first hand experience with the later when a six foot iguana started sunning himself right next to my pool chair at the fountainblue back in September.  Wild. Glad it wasn’t a snake.