cleetussnow

Not a lot of wiggle room.  4 of the last 5 gfs runs have a similar track, so that’s a plus.  But there is a lot of time and dr. No to contend with.

Gfs is a decent hit but...east of previous run.

39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It also takes longer for the euro to eject the sw energy 

IIRC the old euro had a bias of hanging the sw back too long, only to correct later?  Seems like I remember that.

this storm has that sort of back and forth modeling we saw many times in the snowy years.  Probably won’t play out the same way:  gfs picks up on something early, euro agrees, then they both waver with the euro out underneath due to slow eject.  Then wham a nice euro run and everything else catches up.  Would be fun to track like the old days.

Edit just snow snow88 post.  Yeah...but I think the model has a new set of issues nowadays...i.e. it’s generally more erratic

In the old days we liked whiffs right in this time range. 

It seems trends are coastal or whiff, rather not a cut through Detroit this time. Suppose that’s a pattern change. We will see if it holds.  

I am actually thinking hugger when all is said and done.  

38 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I felt alright about this run. It’s a just a hair away from a perfect track for us. I get nervous seeing it move towards a cutter but it’s better than a complete miss which was in the cards a few runs ago. 

Agree.  It’s not going through Detroit there.  That’s a good sign at this point. As long as we never see that between now and game time we have a shot.  

On 1/24/2020 at 2:19 PM, cleetussnow said:

ONE of them is Dr. No.  Which one?  CMC is down with the GFS, but more west.  The delta between the CMC and Euro is planetary.  

Behind door number three is the week wave that scoots out underneath us.  

Door number 3 sort of on the EPS.  Ots.  Kick a field goal?  

Wait what February are we talking about 

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Staggering differences between Euro/GFS...almost laughable really.  

ONE of them is Dr. No.  Which one?  CMC is down with the GFS, but more west.  The delta between the CMC and Euro is planetary.  

Behind door number three is the week wave that scoots out underneath us.  

38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I took a peak at the GEFS 12z and I do like seeing troughing on the east coast, but the AK vortex is not budging and it looks as though the ridge over Hawaii returns. GEPS 0z was much better but I trust GEFS more and it's been the default pattern recently it seams (the Hawaii ridge especially)

Noticed that too.  that pig can rule the roost, but we shall see.  I suspect a transient, less amplified trough if anything.  

I mean it looks like a big occluded low, and we have seen these modeled a couple of times.  Its pretty potent.  its also not likely verbatim.

26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Don't see this every day..

A nice stronger cutter day 8/9

I expected this to stay coastal on the modeling until Wednesday or so.  The cut is modeled early.

42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yup lol

That's the entire event..

Kbgm map

Stay safe

Euro appears to be more west yet.

19 minutes ago, cny rider said:

It's funny they talk about the BM track all the time over on the NE forum.

My benchmark here is the center of LI.  Track from Jersey coast ---> center of LI is almost a guaranteed winner here.

 

There are a lot of Mets over there and they offer tidbits for us out west so I poke around there quite a bit.  And anytime one of the civilian posters complain about rain and dry slots, that means we are good upstate.  Our best storms are usually grim for them.  

I will also say my camp is located in the Adirondacks which is kind of like a Bermuda triangle of the weather boards. Often time that latitude corresponds a lot with what the northern NE crew are concerned with and not necessarily what is on the minds of this board out in western NY.  I also live closer to the NYC so that forum is interesting for my backyard.  I lurk the Sh*t out the forums during storm threats!  

42 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

i'm sure things will get better when I'm in Asia in February, I missed the early december storm, so basically I have not seen any snow this year.

i'm there now.  which is why it will snow at my camp up north this weekend.

The 6Z GFS at 240 is eye candy oh my.  The pattern looks good esp. upstream this time.  

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thump looked a little better on euro tonight for weekend system.

GGEM also finally became the first model to start showing the sfc redevelopment again south of us. We'll have to see if that's a trend other guidance picks up on. 

I guess people are staying up for the GGEM.  

i like the weekend for my Adirondacks interests.  Also, something appears to be brewing long range.  Good times ahead.

Agree on euro.  Details to be worked out but it looks more gfs like.  

The green is from lake modified air. Doubt it matters for anyone.  Besides that kind of detail doesn’t matter now.

Weenie run.  Improved so trending with an earlier transfer. At least it didn’t cut left like the 12z euro.  Good look as of now.

This weekend storm might work out and be interesting for many.  It’s a different look to be sure: got a decent airmass to work with, certainly appears potent.

the Oz. GFS depicts A 992 LP pressing into a stout 1044 HP to the north, from Chicago to the st. Lawrence valley. Verbatim the GFS shows snow to start, a transition to rain, and then backend snows for western NY.   The LP transfers to the coast into the gulf of Maine and everyone is back to snow for a spell for the west and central.   The dacks look to the jackpot on the gfs, as well as eastern NY with the transfer to coastal  

The Euro sports a more western track.  The low is weaker and takes it  into the UP of michigan and the transfers from Ottawa to SNE.  Less snow and more rain on this one verbatim, the but position of the LP after transfer suggests the backend would be decent even though the model doesn’t show verbatim.   The rainy part for western NY could actually be dry slot...so all is not lost.  Dacks also jack.  

My take is there is an LP transfer is in the cards, details TBD.  This set up kind of makes a cut path work out as the SE ridge retreats, better antecedent airmass, and a stout HP to the north.  A strengthening coastal hugger  can chuck snow westward, and Both models depict snowy outcomes, but a mix will likely have to be tolerated.  

Not a bad look at this timeframe. 

I think nyc has hit 70 during winter months 3 times in 4 years if got there today.  

The end of the ensembles look decent, but...the medium range doesn’t and the short range is garbage.  Watch how the 16th keeps trending the wrong way.  The current cutter cut further west than progged 2 days ago.  

Modeling can have this sustained long range look only to erode as we progress closer through time to the current sensible weather overhead.  Mirages and Fata Morganas.  You can see wintry appeal, but always in the distance.  

Pretty soon the long range will correct warm because it’s spring.

Euro shows a synoptic deal next week, though odd.  It’d big tho.