cleetussnow

8 hours ago, mreaves said:

 

I'm not sure where sensor 6 is located for my Ambient but it's pretty warm there.

Once in awhile I will throw the sensor unit on mine into the basement freezer to see if I can trick the wife into thinking its minus 10 out.  

About 15 years ago I recorded an hour of the weather channel as a major mid 2000s blizzard was about to hit.  On April fools day I let the recording play in the living room and left to see what would happen…

Last summer we got some new mini split A/C units with remote thermostadts.  I threw one of those in the freezer for awhile and then took a picture of the 41 degree reading on it and sent it to my wife at work to show her how good the units cooled the house.  

None got a laugh and now that I am thinking about it, I didn’t get any afterwards either.  Try something else next time I guess…

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

It’s been years since I’ve watched an entire nfl game. Red Zone has brought me back in some. There are way too many play stoppages and they have just about neutered defenses. At least the Red Zone cuts out all the useless BS. 

The commercials are really tiresome.  I used to TIVO games and skip through the commercials. Game took about 1.5 hours max.  Now I have NFL gamepass and switch over to redzone when my game has a commercial.  

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…hey when it’s warm in one place, it’s cold some place else..I’ll take my chances/roll the dice with a -NAO to start off the winter like the some modeling is showing.  If it snows in our bubble it’s all good. 

I didn't renew my VT camp lease. Big NE winter incoming.  

I would equate this thread to a 4-6 inch snow event in winter which goes to show how important the rain is to all of us. 

Did well with this here in Westchester.  I don't have a gauge, but I'd eyeball fishpond level is up about 2.5 inches.  For here the models weren't too bad.

1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

This omg it’s a bust is annoying the big rain wasn’t supposed to start until late tonight into tomorrow…. Let it play out folks! 

Certainly did here

We just had about 30 minutes of heavy rain here north of HPN.  Had to be close to an inch.  Shit was heavy.

33 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I will take anything that is wet.  It will be yeah or nah within the next 10 minutes.

Thats what she said

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

The media hype was pretty big then too. It’s really the first storm I remember making big headlines up here before it hit. 

Thats The One.  I got over 30 inches.  I learned 2 things:  it can snow a lot and you can predict it (somewhat). Read the the paper to track it.  

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder what the lowest Invest record is ...lol

Maybe in the midst of it?

36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There are so many marine heatwaves that they compete with each other and have often overridden the ENSO signal unless it’s strong. The N Atlantic right now screams +NAO because of the cooler water near Greenland and warm water off the East Coast and Canada, but much of our weather is defined by the Pacific. Hopefully we can finally get out from this Nina background state and develop a good STJ for the winter, that will probably make it better for us vs relying on Miller B storms and +AO often forcing unfavorable tracks. 

Always prefer a favorable Pacific look myself.  Tends to stick around and offer up more chances since the conditions can stick around awhile.  No idea how we get out of this NINA state for the upcoming winter unless as you say other marine warmth anomalies alter things.  

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh. No one’s asking me but imho this summer was an aridity outlier, an anomaly that actually fell outside the already established/empirically verifying predictions of CC elevating ambient theta-e. 

Shows -perhaps- that good ole fashioned variability can still yank things around. 
 

 

I keep going back to that volcano water vapor ejection.  I think the jury is still out.  The hot and dry air masses all around the midriff of the entire northern hemroidisphere, on every landmass on this side of the tropics…seems too unlikely of a coincidence that there isn't a common cause.  I know nasa said no but what do they know?  If they stuck to space flight maybe they would be flying in space right now. 

25 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Longterm brief thought--sort of off topic, but maybe the idea of wild swings back and forth for the late fall into winter with a few opportunities for slow moving major storms possible. That doesn't mean we get any of them but maybe we do. Looks like potential for very hot weather after the holiday weekend.

WX/PT

I can envision of sort of whip motion of the long wave pattern with extreme heights and troughs for a time at the inevitable tide-turn of the season's change.  If we can be on the right side of that a couple of times, who knows?  I am not envious of someone who has to make a seasonal forecast though.  Tell you something - a few people have already said 2023/24 is the one to watch (not that that theory is investible at this point.)

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe we will get a snowy winter

I was tempted to weenie that but yes...maybe...

9 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

$22 per beer?!?  It better come in a pail at that price.

Or come with a ring.

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That fist sentence? hilarious ... it's like, 'ooh, not gonna end well'  

You know, I just did a road trip to Michigan and back last week.  Once you get west of about Pa, it's not all that uncommon to see these black leather clad Harley riders with nothing more than a beanie helmet.  Sometimes?  none at all.  

I'm like,   really -

They're cruising along ...you can just feel their aura of defiance as they're riding with one hand, the other on hip, at 78 mph.  Full face and nape exposed.  

They have to have been popped before.  I mean I don't see how they haven't.   I ride a road bicycle and got whacked and stung on the lip once doing 17 or 19 down a bike trail and my handle bars were wobbling from the repulsive shock.  What the f happens when a sting enraged bullet tries to tunnel through your neck on a Harley. 

I was channeling my inner Chuck Yeager in order to not die.  

I rode something like 90k miles before I hung up the Harley.  It wasn't always fun.

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I was aerating a few years back and caught an underground nest. When the wife looked out the kitchen window and saw me sprinting across the backyard while hitting myself on the back of the legs, she didn't know if she should laugh or call for help.  

And they don't give up the chase.  
 

whatever happened to those killer African bees?  I thought we all supposed to be dead by now from them.

Had a yellow jacket fly into my helmet once while going 60 on my motorcycle. He’s buzzing around in there enraged and I am trying to be cool about it.  Then another one stung me in the neck.  Died on impact but still stung me.  Took all I had to stay calm and keep driving.  Happily the one in my helmet escaped and didnt sting me in the eyeball. That was exciting.  I also ate a bee doing yard work once.  Nailed me on the tongue.  The wife jacked me full of Benadryl and made me stay awake a couple hours in case my throat and tongue swole shut.  
 

funny I used to be deathly allergic to bug venoms in my youth after a run in with fire ants in texas.  Almost died.  After that I was treated with bee venom therapy for a year or so and since then I can tolerate stings pretty well.  
 

Back to the motorcycle, bee stings were a regular occurrence on my hands and neck.  Utterly sucks because every sting hits like a hammer blow.

Where did we land on the impact of warm SSTs up here for impact on snowfall for coastals? Factor? Non factor? Unknown?  This condition stands out this year big time.

I think my local temp departure was +6 for December, so I remember that and not much else.  

20 inches plus on the 1/17 event in western NY.  Most of us weren't even fringed.

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was flukey bad luck, though...nothing about last season synoptically screamed "Post a cheesy meme of us plunging into the Merrimack".

Yes, I don't track every event and especially every/any non-event, but I recall there being a lot of potential in January that just didn't produce anything.  We had cold around.  There seemed to be something around every corner, and those somethings stayed around the corner the whole month.  Bad bad luck.

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At ORH, those 9 Februarys averaged 24.0" with a median of 20.6".....longterm average for February at ORH is 17.1".....so it was prolific down this way as well.

January has really been the more recent turd in the punchbowl for around here with 5 out of the last 7 below normal snowfall in ORH...and the two that were not below normal had massive cutters that ruined the overall feel of the month.

Decembers were no prize, but not as much of a let down than Jan.  which should be a core snow month.  Last December …damn.

5 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

GFS is a joke at 18z 

Shifted 1000 miles again at 0z.   Gar.   Bage.  
 

Gonna be a LOOOONG winter, bros.  

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

As we thought. 

Glad its not winter. 3 feet of snow to high cirrus in 6 hrs.  The traffic jam at the Tobin would persist until napril.  

GFS is a joke at 18z 

L O effing L…the GFS is night and day different since 12z. That shit is hilarious. Low shoots off NC coast to the fish.  Bone dry up here.