cleetussnow

Euro made a big move. More coming.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc also

Just looked at 0z. GFS ...190 there is a 984 low climbing the Hudson valley.  No rain on the left side this time.  This is a great look.  

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc also

I am watching this period as well. Euro has some ideas about a storm going too.  Definitely not boring.  

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The beginning of our community happened.

Bridge jumping and toaster baths became a ‘thing’ 

50 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

2 things of note for next week...the 17th and 18th has a clipper that looks a bit charged up and could be one of those 2-4” type snowfalls  with some 6” enhancements in the NE lake belts...the second storm is different from the euro in one aspect, the GFS has NS energy not timing up with the low coming out of the gulf. The euro has that. Time will tell

I don’t think we want a phased solution ?

Storm is still there on the 18z run at 246.  No material differences at this range...

keep er coming...

15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

One has to think that a track like that no chance it rains back in WNY especially when the 540 line is east in eastern NY and we straddle about -4c...at this time that would put us below freezing. If that look stays it’ll straighten out.

I take that look all day long let’s go!  Can’t even look at details like r/s anyway at this time range, but the big picture is an EC trough and gulf low headed over the upstate NY ‘benchmark’ ....NYC.  Always interested in that look even if 10 days out.  

Over in the NE thread, ORH pointed out a miller B look on the EPS midweek next week.  

Active pattern and we should be glad to see it.  

GFS HR 258 has a 984 LP over NYC.  Storm with a gulf connection showing up in this time frame for a couple runs now.  LALA land...

Lala land but the 18z gfs looks close to a  phased solution incoming based what I see at  hr. 246...540 isotherm in Louisiana. LP coming down out of Alberta and an open wave out of the gulf.  

Way out there but in this pattern it’s interesting to see at least.  

Edit it there is no capture...but it was fun to watch.  Maybe we will see something like that this winter.  

we got time for a swfe to emerge out of this.  Could work out - we got chances at least.

4 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

This makes me wonder if there have been any notable cases of a great Atlantic overcoming an unfavorable (or even terrible) Pacific, leading to  great period, month or even winter. I'd be curious to know from anyone more knowledgeable. 

IIRC 2010 was a strong La Niña and fairly hostile pacific generally , but there was a raging NAO which delivered the goods for the DC area several times...I think there was 40 inches OTG in the burbs of Maryland.  We got a storm or 2 out of it, but we missed the big ones to our south.  The strength of the NAO hurt us.  

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

a lot of us got a 40+ winter in 2018

I think it got ~10 below at my house (HPN)  in early January of that winter as well.

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Can’t be too much worse.  

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

It gets colder then normal for 2-3 days following the cutter, then a full out torch on the GEFS.

Day 10 to 15 on the GEFS is garbage coast to coast.  Teles support zonal flow.

Euro operational has a deep trough in the east with the 540 isotherm touching Kentucky at this time (216).  Not as sharp as the gfs .  I only have tropical tidbits so can’t see much else.  Looks like a good period to watch anyway.

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

We never have backside snow like this. 

That’s a great look.  Let’s get it inside 6 days...

Just now, MJO812 said:

Based off the long range gfs ? LoL

That’s tongue in cheek 

Cutter then cold then coastal hugger is the next 2 weeks play out.  Teles don’t scream snow around here

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like a few things to track towards middle of the month

Miller B?

Anyone staying up for the euro?  Trying to decide if I want to take a lunesta now or wait up...

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it's tough trying to figure out wtf to go.  This one is a head scratcher.  I've seen subtle moves with models, but this is like ping pong

Do you have a boat for your upcoming chase?

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Miight need to look at our Alternatives of PIttsburg, NH or Chateugay NY.  Good thing is we're fluid.  But damn...Euro is killing us here

No kidding. My camp in the Daks looks like an awesome spot with that set up. Kleenex material.

...and that may be all it is.  

Euro has been jumping 200 miles the last 3 cycles back and forth, and the axis of the trough tilt has been changing too. The GFS has been going in one direction and resolute about it - the wrong way.  

Euro solutions have to be respected this close.

confounding. 

Plus 1 on DT props...hopefully we can get a radio show or zoom going for a good old fashioned nor Easter later this winter....good ol’ days.  

14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I was going to move to horseheads many years back until I realized they avg like 40" a year haha Thought I had a better shot on the jersey coast lol

horseheads is a snow hole. That area misses everything to the left (lake effect) or right (coastal huggers).  In the old days you could drive to Ithaca from there 30 minutes and get your snow fix but not so much these days.  

Last year they hit ~40 inches while everyone else was way under seasonal norms.  Figures that was a year you want to be there.