cleetussnow

29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro just isn't the same anymore..

From feet to almost nothing in a matter of a few runs..It's not even that far out lol The old euro would of nailed it..

the old Euro seemingly wouldn't swing like this.  One of the last 4 euro runs might actually nail it, but we have no idea which one.  Not really time to give up on this for at least eastern NY areas...pattern looks good mid month still

The weekend storm is mentioned in the ALB HWO in some parts of the forecast area at least.  Noticed it in Herkimer county.  

I love the Euro look for my camp in the western Daks, but I think its a dart throw solution.  We need some run to run continuity to buy what the Euro has been selling since its handing out different solutions on every run of the last 4 cycles.  We are getting closer to the 'event' depicted so there's that going for us.  I guess we don't go to sleep on this one after all, which is where my head was at.  

Just now, uncle W said:

that winter had two good weeks in the first half of December and one huge storm in Feb...otherwise it was really bad...

Early storm in December made my sons birthday a mess.  It think it was the 5th and we got 7 inches here . Have the kids didn’t go.  But the ones who did had the place to themselves.  

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Feb 2006 please

Save that one storm, I think it was a bad winter.  We got our annual climo snow fall in that ONE storm.  It was amazing.

From her I mean from dec. 4th and beyond

32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Canadian also has another system coming up the coast that looks like it hurts our chances for lake effect (at least initially) lol So much going on that's for sure..

 

Gfs has something like this as well.  I like the period from here on out for some cold and snow chances.  If we can manage a snow otg over the holidays that’s a win.  

Euro looks good day 10 operational.  Seeing a nice eastern us trough at 500.  Far out there but there.

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Is that a +PNA/-NAO combo I see? 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Euro shows some promise in earlier frames as well.  Our next real window is shaping up somewhat.  

I like the look of the teles...improving at least.  

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

We need a once month snow vitamin this winter DJFM.  Nothing big necessarily but we got blanked for a long period last winter, so a minimum but regular dose of vitamin S would go a long way for mental health.  Volatility is our friend in this regard.  

PS I recognize Watkins Glen, the straight way coming off the carousel. My old stomping grounds.  Bring back F1!  

I am pretty sure a tornado went south of me...which is just north of white plains.  The wind was easily a steady 40MPH and then suddenly I heard a freight train for a minute or 2.  Must have been well over 60MPH right here.  It was like Sandy for a few moments. I’ve experienced one before here in Hawthorne about 10 years ago.  Same sounds/conditions.  

Relatively quiet now but round 2 is about an hour out.  

45 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I found one firmly implanted on my thigh the other day. must have been from cleaning up leaves.

I just took 6 off my dog after a walk just now.  A few on my cloths.  Worst time of year generally  and this is a bad season for ticks.  

I’ve only had one bite and I had the lime rings,  took the anti biotic and all was well.  

Nasty.  

I’ll add that he also basically nailed last winter.  His forecast was for the most part contrarian.

13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Isotherms outlook

https://www.lightinthestorm.com/

I’d sign on the bottom line for that forecast any year.  I’d also sign for normal winter if that was put in front of me.  

We might see something after this week with a cool down.  Pattern looks a little better around the 16th.  Not guaranteed tho.

13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You're right the GEFS keep the ridge going the entire run. We need an atmospheric shakeup.

They look very similar today.

Still reading but this is a great write up.

We have a another day or so to sort where this sets up exactly so good enough for me.  It is interesting no matter where exactly the jack is.  Good little storm for someone esp. for October.  

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Washington is insane!!

That looks like mt. Baker.  I climbed it 

34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Bored lol

An hour 300 snowstorm on the GFS.  Haven’t seen that since June.  :-) 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Forget regulations. Tax the 1% like they deserve and keep low restrictions on business. The income disparity is becoming far too large. Go back mid century rates for the ultra wealthy. The 400k+ Biden plan makes lots of sense and even the rich agree they need to be taxed more. 

I don’t think the top individual marginal income rates matter as much to the economy or the average joe as corporate taxes.  So for me, whichever way the wind blows on that doesn’t change anything. Whatever.  I think the top 1% could only pay for the government for a couple of weeks if you took every dime away. And if you did that, most of the money isn’t cash, it’s investments and shares etc. which would become worthless very fast:  there would be no market anymore since there would be no buyers.  A discussion for another day...

Corporate  tax rates affect the cost of goods, my job, pension benefits and retirement savings.  If corporate rates go up, everything I listed there goes the wrong way for me.  

I’m really just talking about how things are likely to evolve based on the past history.  Biden has 2 years to get the green new deal and I don’t see anything stopping it and it will be the biggest regulation in US history.  My guess is the markets and economy in general will be very disrupted by all of this.  Once done, the senate flips back red, and maybe the house.  That happened to Obama.  

One other thing the market will hate is if the senate is red and the White House blue.  Then there will be budget fights and the threat of government shutdowns will kill the markets.  Flip side is there will be no additional regulations or taxes to speak of while the blue White House and red senate condition exists.  I’m fine with that, but it doesn’t seem likely for the next 2 years anyway.  

The stock market today seems to pricing in Biden winning easily.  What they like is the fact that election isn’t likely to be contested like bush/gore or something.  The market likes stability, predictability and orderliness.

In 2021 the market will start pricing in the new tax and new regulations which are promised.  If the senate flips in November, there  will be a cascade of new regulations, higher taxes, and new taxes for that matter.  The market will get repriced during this time.  

I could see the senate flipping back red in 2022 if the new taxes and regulation coincide with a recession perhaps, and the cascade will be stunted. This happened to Obama in 2010 when he lost the house and senate before he could get his climate bill passed.   He got Obamacare but the large regulatory expansion stopped there.  Clinton lost the house 2 years into his presidency because of hilarycare..  Biden will quickly raise tax rates, and then go straight to the climate regulations that Obama could not pass and get it done.  There is a pattern here.  They get the big regulations eventually.  The the other party gets a chance to rein in further regulatory expansion, but only temporarily.  

I said it in another thread...I am still digging out from last years euro seasonal winter forecasts, so not sure how much weight to give them at this point.  For my purposes the look overall isn’t wretched for my winter quarters in the Adirondacks.  I worry more about big melts that kill the pack than storm shut outs months.  Nothing sucked worse than last January so I’ll take my chances.

I’m still digging out from the euro seasonal forecast for last winter.