cleetussnow

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I take that back. It wasn't Bush or Clinton it was the banks that were to blame. Lending standards have changed for the better. Underwriting is very detailed and extensive. However, a year ago I heard of online lenders giving money out to people based on credit scores and very little to no income validation. 

https://publicintegrity.org/inequality-poverty-opportunity/the-roots-of-the-financial-crisis-who-is-to-blame/

Fannie started it.  See my post.  

9 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Thats crazy. Speaking of popping bubbles...anyone else think the student loan bubble pops in the next year? 

It’s exploding already. 

11 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

I always thought this started with Clinton...

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/hillary-and-bill-cause-of-housing-financial-crisis/

Bush said in 2000 that the mortgage market was in great peril and the GSE’s needed reform.  It is the most prescient thing he ever said.  I joked he should gave got the Nobel prize in economics for that.  Most winners aren’t that prescient.  

the problems arose when then Clinton appointee to Fannie Mae Franklin Raines started subprime lending, which was outside their charter and put taxpayers at risk.  GSE cop Armando Falcone went after them in 1999, but the administration did nothing.  The problem spiraled and mortgage lending became a haven for fraud.  Bush tried to stop it categorically.  He was thwarted by Congress many times.  

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

You are delusional. Did you even bother with the Mueller report? And yet your take is that Clinton is guilty? Lol

Followed it carefully.  I only state facts above so judge Clinton actions for yourself.  However, I don’t find Clinton’s actions defensible.  Nor do I find mueller or comey defendable.  I’m not defending trumps actions only because I can find no actions to speak of and neither can mueller.  Mueller report didn’t even result in a vote in Congress from people who want to kill him.  Stop it.  And Congress was wrong.  Adam Schiff lied.  He said he had indisputable evidence trump and Russia colluded.  So did the former director of the CIA (who recanted his statements.  Publicly!) Schiff said trump was an agent of Russia, and tried to destroy democracy, categorically and in the public record of the House of Representatives.  Of course, this all before the mueller came out and you haven’t heard from schiff since.  The reason is, he lied, produced no evidence, and now has no credibility.  The press wants to kill trump and they even gave up on it.  Charade over.  

Both Schiff and former cia Director Brennan said trump was a liar.  Mueller didn’t.  You say trump lied to you..fine.  But let’s not be selective based on your book of business.  All of us were lied to for 2 years and in this case, it wasn’t by trump.  

Now, maybe the people investigating trump and Clinton and everyone else were incompetent.  Plausible,  federal investigator Durham has been working on this for a year.  At best they were incompetent.  At worst, corrupt.  Read the horowitz report.  The FBI got scolded hard.  The judges who signed the FBI FISA warrants took away those agents privileges to come to the FISA court again.  Why?  They lied to the judges.  Durham will tell us why they lied.  And the FBI hasn’t fixed their policies even today per the judges order.  

Looking 360 degrees is best before you call someone delusional.  

I am nervous about opening things up too quick.  Could backfire.

2 hours ago, Syrmax said:

I've thought that this is a very real possibility that has to have been gamed out before somewhere within their Defense/Political establishments.  A perhaps less conspiratorial version would be that the virus was accidentally released, or even was just totally zoonotic, and  they just seized on the opportunity to help along the scenario by simply playing dumb and allowing internal and external population movements to occur (Chinese New Year travel) before they started to lockdown Hubei Province.  The delay and obfuscation ensure the virus escapes out and then you just sit back and watch the carnage unfold...

A subtlety here...to keep the conspiracy interesting.  Imagine an inside man at a lab who knows the potential of the virus is acting as an agent of the executive.  A small group inside Ji’s Intelligence and executive action committee are the ones who designed the plan.  Recognizing its potential, they decide now is the time to act.  Regime change in the US must happen.  Trump must go by any means.  Very few people in the executive of the PRC know about it, like 10 people. Very powerful group, and this is an executive action undertaking like none other.

Ji gives it the green light, the inside man executes his mission,  and the virus is in the markets the next day.  

They may have miscalculated. They are known to do that.

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

Robots...lots and lots of robots.

And then skynet.

Seriously though robots.

Maybe this whole thing puts pressure on that, if we fall into a deep depression there might be a push to make huge advancements on that front.

I think manufacturing will shift to developing countries that have transparent governance.  So by comparison, mexico is transparent.  And frankly we want Mexico to have a good economy and transparent governance.  We may enact laws that require such.  

Maybe India and other Southeast Asia areas benefit.  Would not surprise me if Chinese expats who know what they are doing lead the charge and open and manage new industry.  

Then the power balance shifts back to the US.  Europe has been frustrated with China, and have been in line to a certain degree with the us actions against China.  This is a real possibility and we will see how that develops.

The big loser is Australia. They got rich off Chinese expansion, and I’d say that’s in the lurch.  They went to a service economy, and that will disappear along with the mineral industry.  

5 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Nope.

Right now the rate of spread doesn't seem to be slowing and that's with everyone locked down. At least the rate isn't increasing. What the hell did China do?

 

China was militant about the lockdown, and also lied.  

19 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

What they want is transparency in government, which they know to be antithetical for communist government.  Communism can’t exist without controlling information.  

China has been self governing for 6000 years and they never once sniffed it. 

I don’t think China ‘grew’ it in a lab, but they might have been irresponsible at the lab, and then lied about it.  The first lie was they said it wasn’t transmittable human to human.  The WHO went along with that for some reason, and that’s why they will be broke. 

Changed my mind.  Conspiracy theory goes like this:

China creates and releases virus into the world, using it’s own population as vectors.  They convince WHO that person to person isn’t happening to facilitate global spread.  Western powers follow along, US notwithstanding, but China only needs Europe to go with the WHO.  

China shrewdly  calculates its authoritarian government can manage the sickness internally  better than the west, so they accept losses.  History proves China doesn’t value life anyway.  They have killed 50 million of their own people in more than 1 instance in the last 100 years.

China calculates the US will have 150 million cases, similar to early CDC projections due to the failure of government and will of the ‘decadent’ population to manage the spread and lethality.  With the western powers destabilized with internal strife, China can advance its interests around the world while the west is mired in chaos.  Their gambit calculates civil unrest in the US from the gun toting part of population, and other protests, with the media eagerly fanning the flames of politic discord.  Trump is persecuted and removed from office prior to the election and the US government weakens substantially.  China knows regicide in the US is their ticket to the top.

Playing the long game, China waits as the west bleeds out, and then takes their interests to the final level they desire, and that is to be the dominant economic and military super power they are destined to be.  The virus is the tool to accelerate their position.  

Plausible.  

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like the WHO did warn people quite early....

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-statement-on-the-advice-of-the-ihr-emergency-committee-on-novel-coronavirus

Jan. 23rd.

"WHO’s risk assessment is that the outbreak is a very high risk in China, and a high risk regionally and globally."

"We recommend exit screening at airports as part of a comprehensive set of containment measures."

"All countries should have in place measures to detect cases of coronavirus, including at health facilities."

On January 14th, The Who said there was no human to human transmission, which was the PRCs official stance.  There was no basis for this.  WHO took China’s word, for one of 2 reasons, incompetence or corruption.  China knew the virus was h2h transmittable in November and possibly last summer.  Only when the virus showed up outside China  did WHO and China  change their official position, in lockstep.  Coincidence?  I left China on the 22nd. The coast was clear officially but something was very wrong,  masks were on everyone everywhere.  They knew what was up.  

So, during the peak of Chinese New Year, Chinese people were flying all over the world with the disease, as well as non Chinese going into and out of China, and Chinese moving around China. Italy got hit because of the large Chinese expat population living there.  

My view is that China coerced the WHO into keeping quiet on h2h until the Chinese New Year was over, and that was a global disaster.  And if the WHO were incompetent, same difference.  JI is a bad man, but not incompetent. 

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah it has a cyclical effect usually. When we do well, the global economy does well and vice versa. The only economy I can see having an impact on us as they export so much is China.

Well, I say the European collective is a close third, but China and the US are tightly connected.

Now back to the regularly scheduled covid virus programming, the US and China are not getting along, and the virus is going to alter the economic dynamics going forward. Something will change and it might be painful for awhile!  

20 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Well, the beauty of Democracy is right to choose.  And not just from two criminal enterprises.  The fact that we have a bicameral govt doesn't mean we have to have just 2 main political parties.  It's worked out that way but frankly both are failing in ways too numerous to get into here.

From my perspective, I don't think they're fixable and frankly both have lost touch with the Center. I'd love to see a 3rd centrist party emerge with the GOP and Democrats now fully hijacked by their lunatic bases...its getting a bit more likely.

A lot of people are fed up with their HS games that pass for policy.  Crises have a nasty way of shedding light on failure.  Of course anybreal change will be hard because the GOP and Dems have ensconced themselves into engrained corruption via lack of term limits and...money.  They aren't about to easily allow themselves to be muscled out either...so enjoy the stupidity!

Plus 1.  Politics has been this ‘base’ before, but like in the 1800s.  There were new parties formed all the time. 

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll add to that I don't think we have to worry about a Greece or Venezuela situation occurring here. The reason being as I stated above if our country does bad economically, so does the rest of the world and as a result our debt instruments will always be more attractive then those of smaller/poor countries. If you had to choose a country in the world in which you would want to invest in that would be the safest which would you choose? Most would pick the USA.

Agree.  And PS we aren’t the only developed economy doing this, which kind of makes the relative value of major currencies stable, so we aren’t getting ‘devalued’ if that makes sense.  We stay on top, even if the bar is moving lower for everyone. We kind of have loaded dice too which helps.  

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

We wouldnt be bickering if Trump or even one Republican would act like they care or chastise Russia instead of taking their side.  Trump ****ing loves Putin and it's a disgrace

You blatantly acknowledge it happened, thats all I ask of them at least.  Just own up to it.  It's the denial that is maddening to us libs.

Actually, trump has placed more sanctions on Russia than any president since Gorbechev was their dictator.  It’s amazing no one knows this.  

The days of Yore... in the 90s Clinton actually gave Yeltsin money to pay the collapsed Russian pension system...we were their best hope as a partner for a bright future, you remember glasnost and all.  Relations between Russia and the US...seemed like world peace was at hand!   Gorby, the beloved Nobel peace prize winner (who prosecuted the Soviet war in Afghanistan with bloodlust - he even threatened to nuke Pakistan if they didn’t close the Khyber pass to arms smuggling), was made into a international hero.  What a turnabout!  It really seemed like flowers and sunshine everywhere.

Now that’s all ****ed up.  It’s known as the new Cold War, and it’s totally contrived, and we started it up again like an old habit. Russiagate just gave it more nourishment.   We should be friends with Russia , and we will be soon enough.  We have a common foe, and you know, the enemy of my enemy...is my friend.  The global power struggle will align Russia and the US, damn the politics of it.  But it won’t be trump.  

There is a much much bigger picture here than some fleeting contrived conspiracy.  You don’t have to like Putin, but For my money I’d rather work with him than some of the other options out there (namely Ji). Putin is the most impressive (I mean successfull) statesmen of this century.  

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is an extremely complicated question. But basically there is a LOT of power that comes from being the most powerful country on the planet. Even more comes from being the highest producing GDP country on the planet. (Although we are not the highest per citizen) Countries and individuals around the world view US Debt as VERY safe, because if we go down as the most powerful and richest country on the planet...Then we have entered a very, very dark place. As a result of this US debt(bonds) are an extremely attractive investment in a volatile market. The amount of debt the US has doesn't really matter because of how powerful we are. There is a lot of truth to what Luke says in how powerful capitalism is, despite at times how brutal it is. It's what has made us so powerful. Other countries don't have the luxury we do... IE. Greece. Countries and people around the world don't really want to invest in debt in Greece, because who knows how they will rebound...

The federal government offers three categories of fixed income securities to consumers and investors to fund its operations: Treasury bonds, Treasury notes, and Treasury bills. Bills are the shortest duration, notes 2nd and bonds are usually 20-30 years+

Each security has a different rate at which it matures, and each pays interest in a different way.

One thing they all have in common, though, is their reputation of being based on the full faith and credit of the United States government. Investors can expect a high degree of safety and a steady, but unspectacular profit from each of these securities. Upon maturity, these bonds, notes, and bills return their face value.

Here is a brief overview that talks about it in more detail. There is some concern into how things are now vs how they were a few decades ago... The debt is increasing substantially year over year. Corporate taxes as a percentage of tax revenue is a huge sticking point for me as the trickle down theory just does not work. If you keep giving the rich more and more money they will spend it on themselves, not on others who actually make them the money.

https://www.investopedia.com/updates/usa-national-debt/

What he said.  

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

We wouldnt be bickering if Trump or even one Republican would act like they care or chastise Russia instead of taking their side.  Trump ****ing loves Putin and it's a disgrace

You blatantly acknowledge it happened, thats all I ask of them at least.  Just own up to it.  It's the denial that is maddening to us libs.

7 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

Dumb question:  Can someone explain, in layman’s terms, how the government can just create several trillion dollars seemingly out of thin air?  I live in a simple world where a dollar is a bartering measure, just like a bushel of corn was back in the day.  If you think your product/service is worth 2 dollars/bushels of corn and I agree, then I give you the corn/dollar in exchange for the product/service.  I always assumed the nation’s debt was in the form of actual debt to bond holders/investors/other governments.  Does the debt really even exist if we can just create massive sums of money with the passage of a bill?  It’s not like someone just stepped in and offered TRILLIONS of dollars that we can now pay back with interest, right?  Any good links to reputable sources that can explain this?  

They are selling treasuries. The government will have to pay it back.  Interest rates are very low, so it’s actually it’s a good time to borrow, but it’s a lot money.  This is how the government ads cash to the money supply.  Printing money and paying itself with it is a no go.  It will kill the currency and we will be crushed with inflation.  That’s when you need a wheel barrow of 100 dollar bills to buy a loaf of bread.   Venezuela printed money to pay debt and starved its people to death as a side effect.  

33 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Do you not believe that Russia aids Trump? Maybe Trump didn’t full-on collude,  but obviously the Russians have provided material support and they’ll do the same against Biden.

As for Biden, he has about as good a record as any career politician I’ve seen. The guy has said a few things I wish he didn’t. But his heart and policies have always been for the betterment of the working class. He’s been on the right side of history with most social issues (in my book).

We live in a bicameral government system. I honestly believe it’s a cop out not to choose. It’s like: a megalomaniac or a reasonable centrist. Come on. Lol

Russia gate needs a dirt nap.  It’s over.  Did the Russian f@#$ with our heads?  Why yes they did.  They have been doing that since Stalin.  Notably financing the anti war movement in the 60s and the global anti nuclear weapons movement in the 70s and 80s.  Even green peace got their money. Old fashioned f$ckery.  When the kremlin archives were opened in the 90s all this stuff was exposed.  Joe McCarthy was an ass but he turned out to be right.  More recently, in 2016 they financed pro trump AND pro Clinton rallies on the same day in NYC to stir things up.  Their strategy is fomenting civil war in this country, and the plan has met with success at every turn.  Sun Tsu would be proud.

However, NONE of their other efforts to date has been as successful as Russiagate, which ironically they had nothing to do with.  They want us to beat ourselves to death and we are doing it. We are bickering on a weather board about it, in a thread about a virus.  Amazing success for them, and we didn’t even need Russia’s help!  

Now, did Russian pay Trump?  No.  Did they pay other politicians?  YES.  The one who trump ran against, and beat.  When Clinton approved the sale of nuclear fuel to Russia as Secretary of State, the Clinton foundation got a fat check.  25 million I think?  Also, billy (the husband) got $500,000 for a speech in Russia.  Yes it all happened.  It could be, and appears to me, that Russia has got the entire situation firmly in hand and we do not.  I do not wonder why Putin is so popular.

59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I wouldn't put it past China that they created this virus in a lab. I can see it. What is a better way to stop riots and protests then to create a virus in which keeps everyone home for months. The people there want a democracy. The Chinese leaders want nothing of the sort.

What they want is transparency in government, which they know to be antithetical for communist government.  Communism can’t exist without controlling information.  

China has been self governing for 6000 years and they never once sniffed it. 

I don’t think China ‘grew’ it in a lab, but they might have been irresponsible at the lab, and then lied about it.  The first lie was they said it wasn’t transmittable human to human.  The WHO went along with that for some reason, and that’s why they will be broke. 

In the world of what-ifs...a NA pattern set up like it is, combined with a warm gulf, if it happened in met winter would set the stage for a bomb somewhere in the MA, probably south of us tho with an NAO as many SDs as strong.  

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Outside eastern Long Island and southeast jersey, the majority of the area had stronger winds last Thursday/Friday 

Not even close to accurate my friend. 

Crews out around here to work on the downed lines, but Con Ed says this wont be fixed until sometime overnight.  Hooked up the generator to keep the fridge and freezer cold.  That thing is stocked for the next 3 weeks to stay isolated so the food can’t go bad!

winds ripping still.  

No power in my area in mid Westchester.  Could be localized...didn’t check Con Ed yet.  huge tree down on the next block is the likely culprit.

definitely warning criteria so whoever said advisory was a dope.  If this happened in 2 weeks time it would have worse.  Leaves out not out yet.

Ok I give this winter. Solid D+.  We had 1 month of snow in the north country at my camp, which wasn’t all that special. At my house in the lower Hudson valley, I don’t think we had 10 inches. Which is 1/4 normal. 

Was not a total fail, and we have seen worse, but this was a clunker I don’t want to repeat anytime soon.  Hopefully we can break out next year.  A B winter will feel like an A winter next year.  

Ps the GFS gets a Z-.  Useless.  Unplug it. 

4 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Dave do you realize what fascism is. Come on do some research bro. And same can be said for you. Overeducated who thinks he knows everything cause of a piece of paper. Hates anyone who thinks diffrent. Typical liberal thinking.

If this were a fascist nation, we would not be having this particular discussion. Lol. Fascist.  Silly. 

I don’t know from what school one would get a piece paper from that would lead you to believe america was fascist but it should shut down for malpractice.  If I had that piece of paper I’d tear it up and get a refund.  

3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Let's say they give 200 million dollars to the performing arts, which is something that has the potential to actually help normal Americans, that accounts for less than .1% of the 2 TRILLION dollar bailout but somehow you are fine with $500 BILLION (25%!!) for corporate bailouts even though these companies just got a massive tax cut and have been buying back stock like crazy.  

Either you are really bad at math or you are you awful human, because that is decimal dust in the grand scheme of it all.  I'm starting to think its the latter...

Pretty brutal.  It’s pork, but we won’t get bills passed without pork, no matter what the national emergency is.  I’m from a small town but 200 million is a lot of money.  Seems like a bailout to me, so I won’t judge. 

If corporations don’t get a backstop there won’t be any jobs for people to return to.  My wife is a teacher and her pension will go bust.  Yes public employees own massive massive pieces of those corporations and without them...they aren’t any public pension systems period.  My wife is a huge stakeholder in American corporations.. and she works for the government! 

If you don’t  like corporations it’s easy to resolve....all you have to do is stop buying Nike, iPhones, Fords, band aids, soap, tape, carpet, gas, food, etc.  no big deal. Then you are good.  You make the necessities yourself like soap, and grow food.

An alternative is to get in on it!  Go buy a share of Apple for example.  Let’s say you like iPhones but the company is too greedy.  Well, you get an envelope in the mail each year and you get to vote on who’s on the board!  You can decide if they are too greedy.  It’s YOUR money.  If you don’t like how it goes, sell it and get a Samsung.  It’s pretty democratic actually, and amazing you have that right as a shareholder.