It's hard to discount the Euro wholesale. It's been south a couple of times over the last few days of model cycles only to recover northerly. On those occasions, the EPS held steady. THIS time the EPS followed suit south. THAT concerns me.
Can’t know for sure, but I’d call the airline and try to get in monday night if you can. Less hassle. But call soon before everyone gets the same idea.
Waaaay too early to discount a north trend, especially since the GFS is also trended north, though not as dramatic. The storm sure can resolve 100 miles more dramatic, and the GFS can do that on its own whim.
Seasonal trend I don’t believe in. Model trends around 1 system I DO believe in. Nothing is really preventing this being a complete rainer up to I 84 and perhaps further and there is plenty of time for that to manifest.
Icon FTW. And I owe NAO an apology.
Agree re late north push. This isn’t unusual, in fact its fairly regular. Nevermind that, just generally the last 36 hrs seem to have larger swings than we would see at this range. Locked isn’t a thing.