cleetussnow

Don't count on the roads being clear in any particular place for any period of time, SUV or not. I have a 2500 with big tires and I've been SOL in that. It's hard to predict what areas get smoked. But this is the nature of the chase. You are going toward the shooting, not running from it. Expect incoming rounds or you are doing it wrong!

Checking in and seeing this. wow. 8 years to the DAY...if this wasn't already mentioned... Lake Effect Summary: November 17-19, 2014 (weather.gov)

Hey guys if you need a snow fix Buffalo may have something to hold you over. 2 feet plus possible of fake snow from Thursday to Saturday. Some model runs have printed a lot more than that. They've had some November doozies to point where all but the most mental were crying for their mothers. 8 years ago, to the day: Lake Effect Summary: November 17-19, 2014 (weather.gov) Can they do it again? Here is a rip for the upstate NY thread: Snow showers likely before 11am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday A chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Hunga tunga got some press. Nice job. May you bust high on temps and low on snow totals.

I think you mean 10,000 (estimate based on snowfall obs) And Happy Birthday from the (mostly) lurker community!

Maybe December won’t be like last December with a +6 temp departure or whatever it was. Until Christmas day of course. Lets not get greedy.

good reference

To his credit, that is a conservative outlook for him.

Buddy of mine is there rn. Says it is amazing and sent pictures of norther lights last night. Thinking of making this a stopover to break up the flight to France or something.

It is. Its the Snow Advance Index. The problem with it is there is no correlation to anything in terms of winter afaik. Its was the speed of the snow advance or something like that meant something supposedly. Not exactly sure. The concept makes sense at a glance so seems plausible but doesn't appear to have any skill.

Once in awhile I will throw the sensor unit on mine into the basement freezer to see if I can trick the wife into thinking its minus 10 out. About 15 years ago I recorded an hour of the weather channel as a major mid 2000s blizzard was about to hit. On April fools day I let the recording play in the living room and left to see what would happen… Last summer we got some new mini split A/C units with remote thermostadts. I threw one of those in the freezer for awhile and then took a picture of the 41 degree reading on it and sent it to my wife at work to show her how good the units cooled the house. None got a laugh and now that I am thinking about it, I didn’t get any afterwards either. Try something else next time I guess…

The commercials are really tiresome. I used to TIVO games and skip through the commercials. Game took about 1.5 hours max. Now I have NFL gamepass and switch over to redzone when my game has a commercial.

I didn't renew my VT camp lease. Big NE winter incoming.

I would equate this thread to a 4-6 inch snow event in winter which goes to show how important the rain is to all of us. Did well with this here in Westchester. I don't have a gauge, but I'd eyeball fishpond level is up about 2.5 inches. For here the models weren't too bad.

Certainly did here

We just had about 30 minutes of heavy rain here north of HPN. Had to be close to an inch. Shit was heavy.

Thats what she said

Thats The One. I got over 30 inches. I learned 2 things: it can snow a lot and you can predict it (somewhat). Read the the paper to track it.

Maybe in the midst of it?

Always prefer a favorable Pacific look myself. Tends to stick around and offer up more chances since the conditions can stick around awhile. No idea how we get out of this NINA state for the upcoming winter unless as you say other marine warmth anomalies alter things.

I keep going back to that volcano water vapor ejection. I think the jury is still out. The hot and dry air masses all around the midriff of the entire northern hemroidisphere, on every landmass on this side of the tropics…seems too unlikely of a coincidence that there isn't a common cause. I know nasa said no but what do they know? If they stuck to space flight maybe they would be flying in space right now.

I can envision of sort of whip motion of the long wave pattern with extreme heights and troughs for a time at the inevitable tide-turn of the season's change. If we can be on the right side of that a couple of times, who knows? I am not envious of someone who has to make a seasonal forecast though. Tell you something - a few people have already said 2023/24 is the one to watch (not that that theory is investible at this point.)

I was tempted to weenie that but yes...maybe...