stormy

The NHC now brings Jose to cat.4 with 140 mph winds by 8am Sunday. Early track is southwest of most earlier guidance. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/051459.shtml?

I have access to local weather records back to 1893. 1958 is the halfway point. It is amazing how many more +90 days occurred pre 1958 compared to post 1958. I have been checking daily for over a month. A high of 94 yesterday and low of 59 at 6:30.

Yes, be patient while working your way through this site, but, the information is here. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/gw

This is a fantastic contribution to this forum!! My hat is off to Terpeast! I agree completely that this coming winter will be an excellent test. My research into my point specific home base Enso winter influence during the past 43 years reveals that average 1.45+ Nino winters give above normal snowfall west of the BR 88% of the time. The CPC and other venues project an approximation of this anomaly for the coming winter. This is a base of support for my winter 23-24 prediction. According to NASSA'S GISS the earth has warmed 1.9 F. since 1880 and the warming has increased since 1980. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures Ironically, the 30 year period from 1945 to 1975 was slightly cooler than normal. Scientists believe that atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic burning of fossils fuels resulted in this cooler period. Yes, from 1945-1975 we actually had anthropogenic global cooling. Passage of clean air acts in 1970 from countries around the world brought this AGC to a halt. https://skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-mid-20th-century-advanced.htm Predicting future climate cannot be more than speculation because climate models have often been incorrect with details. I thoroughly enjoyed digesting this excellent study. My personal take away is that from 1962 - 2015, maximum daily snow per year was largely static. The past 8 years have witnessed a steady decline of annual snowfall at this snapshot one location. My personal one location has been static with one above normal year. I firmly believe that future winters will be variable because of many short range factors not possible to fathom more than a week or two in advance. I agree with Bob Chill along these lines. I also believe that if the current warming continues, marginal locations and certainly D.C. is included will ultimately see more very low snowfall winters. West of the BR, not so much during the lifetime of anyone reading this.

The water table has dropped 11 feet in 3 months in Augusta/Rockingham.

57.6 degrees at 6:30 after 92.4 yesterday.

Excessive heat during a drought always exacerbates the stress on Mother Nature. Many will be shocked 10 days from now if we have 95-100 heat all of next week with no rain. I am confident that the GFS and ECMWF are over-inflating actual temperatures, they almost always do. I always rely on the GGEM more in extreme heat.

I think your right. El Nino should begin to kick in about November. Until Then..................... September and October tend to get very dry without tropical contribution because thunderstorm season is over.

Elkins W.Va. has received 1.58" rain in the past 3 hours.

Just be patient and wait about 10 days................. It will get worse..........

I have received 1.12" 30% of normal

Hello my friend down south! Please educate yourself a little from psu: https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/91

24 hrs. later I have received 5 drops instead of 5 inches. This is not 15 day low resolution wish-casting from the GFS. This is 24 hr. high resolution from the NAM 3k. The GFS and ECMWF regularly average 8 - 15 degrees inflated with heat at 24 hrs... Now the NAM 3k misses by 5 inches with 24 hr. rainfall. I believe Gordon Barnes could have done better with his primitive tools in 1975!!! Do we continue to delude ourselves with 21st century high tech??

Mother Nature is providing for the squirrels when the deep snow arrives!! Never fails

Big Joe and especially the CFSv2 never misses!!!!! Start waxing those skies!

It also said I would hit 104 last Friday. My high was 90. The GFS is useless with heat. The ECM is not much better. It predicted 97 last Friday.

At 12z the 3k NAM nest predicted .18" rain thru Tuesday for my neck of the woods. Now at 18z it predicts 5.05" in the next 24 hrs. Without a doubt, a Flood Warning will be issued tomorrow afternoon..................... Heaviest rain 10 am - 4 pm. A few days ago I believed only the GFS and ECM were on steroids..............................

As I predicted in this thread on July 11. If the Nino anomaly exceeds 1.00, near and west of the BR will likely experience above normal snowfall this coming cold season. If the anomaly is less than +.70 we will probably have below normal snowfall. The CFS ensemble mean is +1.45 which is near perfect. The latest CPC Dyn. Avg. is 1.90 which is still good. The CPC Stat. Avg. is +.95 which is marginal. The ECMWF gives 2" - 4" above normal precip. Dec - Feb. Latest thoughts give western areas an 80% probability of above normal snowfall. Immediate D.C. region will hinge on amount of blocking. That is my 23-24 Winter Prediction..........................

Hey Bob! Really good to see you back in the loop! Hopefully you'll hang around through the winter.......

Thanks very much!! I really appreciate your expert explanation.

Crazy times for the models on Friday afternoon in my immediate region. 102F with 50% cloud cover on GFS at 4 pm. ECM 96F with 25% cloud cover. NAM12 says 67 with rain! Nice! The only sanity is with the GEM which says 90 degrees with 45% cloud cover.

Another county applies for drought disaster declaration in the valley................................................... https://www.whsv.com/2023/08/23/shenandoah-county-applies-disaster-relief-due-drought-conditions/ When the drought monitor updates tomorrow morning, the moderate drought area will expand. Valley farmers have lost millions of dollars in the corn crop. Soybeans are next.

Do you really wonder why? Careful consideration of our modern day society will provide the answer.

I had a high of 90 yesterday. I used the GEM for my forecast yesterday morning as it projected a high of 90 when the GFS said 96. The GFS is sometimes wildly inaccurate with heat. A good example is evident this morning with Friday afternoon expectations. With no precip. the 06z GFS is wacko at 18z with regional temperatures compared to the 00z ECMWF which seems reasonable.

Drought is returning quickly for most areas unless we receive widespread significant rain soon. The water table has dropped 4 ft. in 30 days at a USGS test well in northern Augusta. My spring fed stream level has dropped out surprisingly fast in the past two weeks. After 5.39" rain in July my lawn has went dormant August 20.