stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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My water table has risen 1.9 ft during the 6 inches of wasted water. Still exactly 20 ft. below April 12. We need at least 12 - 15 more inches of that wasted water between now and April. A lot of heavy wet snow cover would also be very beneficial.
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That "6 inches of wasted water" was wonderful drought mitigation for western folks.
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Are you sure?????
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WINTER STORM WATCH for western Highland County for late Monday. 6 - 12 inches possible. This is only 145 miles west/southwest of D.C. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ503&warncounty=VAC091&firewxzone=VAZ503&local_place1=4 Miles WNW Monterey VA&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=38.4284&lon=-79.6419
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The GFS and GEFS still show a storm 28 - 30. GFS brings an inland runner with rain. The GEFS still likes the coastal solution. The 850 temps. are more reasonable for some snow from Staunton to D.C. with the 06z GEFS run.
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I am tracking a likely rainstorm but also watching for any hint of something else like last Sunday night.
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That can happen with an up-slope easterly flow.
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Then 18z GFS puts the bullseye over Augusta County:
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Sunday night, strong LP is over S. Carolina dumping rain. No 50/50................ Source of cold air way back over North Dakota............................
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18 z GFS hammers the LP from Myrtle to Norfolk. 2 - 3 inches common.
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I have absolutely no panic. I am simply disappointed that so much of what the best and brightest in the meterological world base their assumptions on is so corrupted. No wonder their wrong more than 50% of the time. We should expect better. Of course, considering the world we live in, it is almost certain.
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CAPE : Please don't believe that I have any personal animosity toward you. I guess that I just have a personal expectation for a model or ensemble to focus on details accurately. When they don't, I don't like.
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Your late....................... I absolutely know this is an ensemble of 30 members . These 30 members need to get their act together. Perhaps the resolution is bland, but this is not good. This thread of people are obsessive with details of 5, 10 and 30 days into the future. How can you rationalize this kind of crap when so many are instructed to only listen to the GEFS and throw out the deterministic GFS. Maybe we should we throw out the GEFS??????
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I'm not looking that "hard" as the parameters will likely be completely different tomorrow. But in reality, the model is arguing against itself by painting snow at +3C.
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Cold air aloft is very marginal at best with the 850 and the 540 line:
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20.5 degrees at 7 am.
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A few take away's before the event. An almost classic storm track with minor variations. We would be measuring snow in feet if we had a source of cold air for the storm to tap into. Where is that 1040 high over southeast Quebec? I'm happy because 24 inches of snow means too much cleanup labor and the 2 inches of rain over 24 hours will be wonderful for the continuing severe drought according to the drought monitor updated this morning.
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The ICON loses interest
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Hey! I'm back in town!! I posted that so quick without reviewing thread activity because I know how much you crave snow. And, I was in a hurry for another appointment. This is a long shot at maybe 20%. The ECM and GEM also bring the spoke of energy down but are more progressive to the coast without surface lp developing. The GFS says, nada, I'm not digging that deep. We''ll see at 6 pm.
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Kudo's
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12z ICON dumps snow Tuesday/Wednesday
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16.8 this morning. 1 - 3 inches of rain looks reasonable for Sunday afternoon thru Monday.
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This statement verifies many statements 50 years ago from observers. "Some of our heavy snow winters were not all that cold". Very cold winters like 76-77 suppress storms.
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The 18z GFS increased my qp from 1.60 to 2.09". I don't agree with the Helter Skelter precip. footprint. CRAZY!!!!!!
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KUDO's
