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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    move to Caribou Maine
  2. Brian5671
    this could be one of those crazy +5/+6 monthly temp departure
  3. Brian5671
    reminds me a bit of 01-02 and 11-12-not that we're warm and dry, but those years I looked at the maps and saw what we are seeing today-way too much to fix at least in the short to medium term...
  4. Brian5671
    hideous pattern....+EPO, +AO, +NAO, -NAO, strong PV over the pole, MJO warm phases of 4/5/6 on repeat. Can't get any worse really.
  5. Brian5671
    Back to tracking the long term again....Euro had us all for a moment....
  6. Brian5671
    That's all it takes really. That's always on the table no matter the winter or pattern. Ok maybe not 01-02 or 11-12
  7. Brian5671
    True. The other thing I don't like is the strong PV over the pole. Want to see that weaken or get broken up. I don't see alot to get excited about honestly.
  8. Brian5671
    we're 2.5 days out-today's model trends are certainly a big disappointment. If we miss this week and early next week, it's possible we go virtually snowless for Jan unless the very end of January delivers. The 80's are back!
  9. Brian5671
    it's amazing how warm water north of a continent thousands of miles away can wreck our winter....oh well, going to enjoy the warmth, if it's not going to snow, give me 60 degrees
  10. Brian5671
    NAM is ugly-has very little precip and zero snow
  11. Brian5671
    even in crappy winters like 97-98 we get a freak snowstorm that ruins the record-I think that year may have been close to 0 before the 3/22/98 storm dropped 4-6 inches to ruin it.
  12. Brian5671
    Euro and UKMET look great for a few inches for all. Would be great to get something before the flip to warm.
  13. Brian5671
    I meant after this initial passage into 4/5...so 4/5 by 1/10, then collapse into COD and then back to 4/5 as we move forward. (as Allsnow notes-if that happens, we likely have a clunker on our hands)
  14. Brian5671
    I'm in that boat too-if it's going to be 45 and rain might as well root for 60 and sun....lower heating bills, more outdoor activities etc.
  15. Brian5671
    JB note the MJO, after going into the COD may emerge back into 4-5 again at some point. If that happens we're on life support
  16. Brian5671
    gaining sun light--sunset is now 10 minutes later here than the earliest one in mid Dec. Sun angle will soon become an issue (LOL)
  17. Brian5671
    nope but snowcover gets harder and harder to maintain as we head through Feb and beyond. That's why winter '10-11 was special-the goods came during prime low sun angle and coldest temps. Minimal melting
  18. Brian5671
    I'd tend to agree. But a big winter with snowcover is starting to look like it's going down the tubes quick....
  19. Brian5671
    just 30 short days away....
  20. Brian5671
    remember January 2006? That was a crazy warm snowless month. I think it could be like that barring some dramatic turnaround late
  21. Brian5671
    and these winter time ridges in recent years tend to over perform on warmth. I'm thinking we see some big time positive departures by 1/15-1/20
  22. Brian5671
    nice cell on radar out there
  23. Brian5671
    why would the amplitude help in 3/4 with the blizzard?
  24. Brian5671
    No one is canceling winter-the pattern is bad for several weeks. Beyond that who knows. But wasting January really sucks.
  25. Brian5671
    I honestly think the use of analogs from 50-75 years ago is less effective with different base states of oceans/atmosphere. His LR forecasts rely heavily on those analogs
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