Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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Love that trail. Yeah it's in a valley so I can see the cold air settling in...
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NYC 20" EWR 27" MMU 29" ISP 17" SWF 33"
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We may get something towards Xmas-that would be nice-but this is not what was modeled 7-10 days ago that is for sure...
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Classic -PNA there. All the cold is out west while we torch.
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Usually the kiss of death....
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Fantasy range after day 6-7 and verbatim there remains little in the way of cold air in the eastern US
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18z is warm and wet again through day 10... who cares what it shows beyond then, fantasy period.
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Ugly run of the GFS warm and rainy through mid month-no cold air supply with the lousy pac. Edit-CMC is better but it's the CMC-need to see if the Euro agrees with it. -
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Yeah it was rough-great pattern but nothing until BDB. There was an OTS storm 12/17 as well. Was brutally cold too-month was -4.7
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I'm on board for late Dec/Early Jan-works for me-better climo. Models are always too quick to bring in a pattern change and too quick to break it down-so add 10-15 days onto the change on either end and you'll be good.
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Love your optimism but you do the same thing every year....you've been at this hobby long enough to know it's not going as planned...
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No one is using the GFS. If you look at the EPS it pushes the pattern out in time. And the PAC does matter especially in mid December. Right now the NAO will just trap a marginal airmass which for the coast is 40 and rain. Go back and read the last 2 pages here please...
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Hopefully it's not one of those "it's always 10 days away patterns"
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Yeah but as bluewave notes above we keep slowly pushing back. Need PAC help or we're just trapping pac polar air right now....
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Yep got down to 21 here-everything coated in frost...
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I'll take it-think it's 12/20 and beyond for anything cold/snowy for the immediate coast. Got to get fresh arctic air this time of year... Inland different story.
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I deleted it. Both have lousy pac airmasses unfortunately.
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yeah it will be awhile before we get good cold air mass in....
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Stormy wet pattern continues. Summer drought has been completely wiped out.
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That 35 in Fairfield is bogus. We had about 25-30 here. Hard to tell with all the drifting.
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Dec 2010. Dec 2017 was cold the last week into Jan with the blizzard ending that cold spell.
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Certainly possible. Pattern changes were forecast in years like 01-02, 05-06, 11-12, 19-20 that never came and were always 10 days out. Twitter and Facebook posts have made it all the worse with hype and clickbait. Keep expectations low for now, it's still early winter so lots of time for the goods to be delivered.
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Pattern change keeps moving out in time which isn't surprising, models always rush pattern change. Even so, might get back to 0 or average for temps depending on when it actually changes or how cold the air ends up.
